Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

实施层级和综合教学管理的思考

加强人文基础课的教学管理,是全面提高教学质量和提升大学文化品质的关键。实行目标层级管理和系统综合管理能更有效发挥人文基础课的文化承载功能。     

Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat From Marriage

The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.     

西安环境污染经济损失估算与分析

为有效监测、控制环境污染,保护城市环境,采用市场价值法、修正人力资本法和工程费用法等估算方法,对2002年西安市大气污染、水污染和固体废弃物污染造成的经济损失进行测算评估,通过各项指标和数据分析环境污染状况,给出西安市因大气、水和固体废弃物污染造成的经济损失估算结果。结论认为,西安市环境状况依然十分严峻,2002年因环境污染造成的直接经济损失高达7.30亿元。城市污染治理和城市环境保护由此成为西安市经济可持续发展的首要前提。     

20世纪40年代四川省新县制下地方自治的施行

本文探讨了 2 0世纪 4 0年代四川省新县制下的基层社会控制及民主的实际状况 ,指出四川省在当时所推行的基层地方自治仍未摆脱受行政控制的从属地位 ,行政工作先于、多于自治工作 ,“民意机构”非民众直接选举产生并且多反映地方有力者的意志 ,它在解决民众最感痛苦的诸如“摊筹派募”、“征丁”以及“吏治腐败”等问题上的作用十分有限。国民政府在基层所实行的“以官治求自治”的所谓地方自治政策 ,非但未能发展地方事业 ,反而从根本上动摇了其统治基础     

Exposure Reconstruction for the TCDD-Exposed NIOSH Cohort Using a Concentration- and Age-Dependent Model of Elimination

Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.     

两种财产权的均衡--一种宪政隐喻的研究

在某种意义上,“公共财产神圣不可侵犯”的宪法宣言彰显了社会主义对资本主义的批判;“私有财产权不可侵犯”的神圣入宪隐喻了宪政的理性。私有财产权与公有财产权的均衡宪制是一种“社会能量守恒定律”的宪政隐喻。这两种基本财产权的均衡态势既有静态的平衡,也有动态的衡平,并展现为“一明两暗”的对立形态和以人为目的的终极关怀。由于这种均衡态势在各国宪法中展现的侧重点不同,而成为各国形成不同的宪政观念的重要原因之一,这便是宪政的隐喻所在。在三种不同模式的宪法中检讨这一隐喻,为当下解构、建构和创新中国的宪政理念与制度具有重大意义。     

Beheimatungsprozesse begleiten — ein Werkstattbericht

Supporting processes of belonging in supervision and coachingThe contemporary employee has to cope with frequent changes. Not only does he lose his familiar environment, he also has to find ways to familiarize himself with new places and to develop a fresh sense of belonging. This process can be understood and facilitated by interpreting the German concept of “Heimat“ as something we have to create ourselves. First experiences demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in coaching processes.     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

古诗文名句训诂研究

古诗文名句流传甚广，人们对其部分的理解尚有不妥之处。本文择其十者作一辨析。