Symmetrical design for symmetrical global sensitivity analysis of model output

Symmetrical global sensitivity analysis (SGSA) can help practitioners focusing on the symmetrical terms of inputs whose uncertainties have an impact on the model output, which allows reducing the complexity of the model. However, there remains the challenging problem of finding an efficient method to get symmetrical global sensitivity indices (SGSI) when the functional form of the symmetrical terms is unknown, including numerical and non-parametric situations. In this study, we propose a novel sampling plan, called symmetrical design, for SGSA. As a preliminary experiment for model feature extracting, such plan offers the virtue of run-size economy due to its closure respective to the given group. Using the design, we give estimation methods of SGSI as well as their asymptotic properties respectively for numerical model and non-parametrical model directly by the model outputs, and further propose a significance test for SGSI in non-parametric situation. A case study for a benchmark of GSA and a real data analysis show the effectiveness of the proposed design.     

Interval-valued data regression using partial linear model

Semi-parametric modelling of interval-valued data is of great practical importance, as exampled by applications in economic and financial data analysis. We propose a flexible semi-parametric modelling of interval-valued data by integrating the partial linear regression model based on the Center & Range method, and investigate its estimation procedure. Furthermore, we introduce a test statistic that allows one to decide between a parametric linear model and a semi-parametric model, and approximate its null asymptotic distribution based on wild Bootstrap method to obtain the critical values. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology and the new test. Moreover, several empirical data sets are analysed to document its practical applications.     

基于最近邻分析的空气质量时空数据异常点识别

空气质量数据具有在时间上连续、空间上相关的特点,这提高了异常点识别的难度.本文提出在时间维度上运用移动平均法,在空间维度上运用反距离加权法对观测值进行预测并求残差的解决思路,从而将时空数据的异常点识别问题转化为二维残差值的异常点检测问题.通过仿真验证表明新方法具有良好的检出力.最后将新方法应用于北京市实际观测数据,取得了满意的识别效果.     

论近年来“长城小说”题材内容的新变

重点关注了《王白的长城》、《湖光山色》等几部"长城反思小说"与"长城乡土小说",通过叙事形态变化和社会价值变化两个层面,论述了近年来"长城小说"题材内容的变化。在叙事形态上近年来有关长城的反思小说和乡土小说引人关注;而在社会价值方面长城小说呼唤"生态意识"、"家园意识"的回归,引发了人们对环境的忧虑以及对古长城开发与保护的深思。     

加入WTO与中国社会保障制度的发展与完善

十年来中国社会保障建设取得了很大的成就,社会保障成为改善民生和社会建设重要领域和促进力量,对于克服经济全球化深入发展背景下各种矛盾、促进经济发展和社会稳定发挥着积极的作用。但是,中国社会保障制度还不完善,面对世界贸易组织框架下越来越复杂的国际国内形势,需要进一步加快社会保障制度建设,选择科学合理的社会保障模式和管理体制,加强社会保障公共服务体系建设,实现人人享有社会保障。     

Barriers to Managing Coronary Artery Disease Among Older Women

Numerous barriers to managing coronary artery disease (CAD) among older women are reported in the literature; however, few studies adjust for demographic and health status differences. A survey assessing barriers and other factors was distributed to a stratified random sampling of older women with CAD. Factor analysis and multiple logistic regression procedures were used to estimate the impact of these issues on receiving a CAD-related office visit. The most problematic barriers included denial and low health literacy. Efforts to promote patient awareness of heart health and better communication between patients and clinicians may alleviate these barriers.     

论我国国外马克思主义研究的三个核心问题——兼论我国国外马克思主义研究的自我身份认同

研究边界的日益模糊、研究对象选择的随意性和研究方法的非历史性,是制约我国国外马克思主义研究进一步走向深入的三大核心问题。应当对国外马克思主义研究的边界和理论性质作大致明确的规定,并且立足于推进中国马克思主义理论建设和现代化实践这一目的出发,破除形而上学的两极思维方式,展开对国外马克思主义理论的研究,实现国外马克思主义研究在当代中国的价值。     

灰色多级排队供应链系统的稳定性测度方法

文章以供应链网络为研究基础,建立了一种灰色多级排队供应链系统,并采用多级排队网络方法研究受到达率和服务时间间隔两个扰动量影响时该系统的稳定性测度方法.验证结果显示:对于受到扰动量影响的灰色多级排队供应链系统,均能快速达到稳定状态,且扰动量能改善供应链系统的整体性能,即使出现异常值,该值变化的波动性也较小;在稳定状态后因具有相对固定量的库存水平,系统不再受其他因素的制约,显示了较强的鲁棒性特征.     

视觉艺术大师纳博科夫

纳博科夫是一位视觉艺术大师,这是理解其小说创作的关键.纳博科夫反复声明自己天生是画家,具有特殊的听音辨色的“色彩听觉”天赋,其作品运用文字呈现出五光十色的艳丽色彩.纳博科夫对古往今来欧美列国的画家画作了然于心,其创作过程即如作画般在纸张的画布上挥毫泼墨,实践着“诗如画”的书写传统.除了斑斓的五彩世界与绘画般的文字书写,纳博科夫的小说还大量借鉴了电影叙事技巧.在文字与视觉艺术之间,纳博科夫自觉且自如地进行着空间书写.     

有关军队军事人员胜任特征的研究综述

胜任特征研究是管理心理学和人力资源管理领域的一个热点问题,也是近年来军队人事管理部门十分关注的领域之一。本文对胜任特征研究起源、概念及胜任特征建模等进行了简单回顾,重点分析了国内外军队军事人员胜任特征研究进展及现状,并在此基础上进行了初步比较和评述,阐述了外军研究对我军胜任特征研究的几点启示及未来我军研究的努力方向。