The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities*

Objective. This study examines how preferences for different types of applicants for admission to elite universities influence the number and composition of admitted students. Methods. Previous research with these NSCE data employed logistic regression analysis to link information on the admission decision for 124,374 applications to applicants' SAT scores, race, athletic ability, and legacy status, among other variables. Here we use micro simulations to illustrate what the effects might be if one were to withdraw preferences for different student groups. Results. Eliminating affirmative action would substantially reduce the share of African Americans and Hispanics among admitted students. Preferences for athletes and legacies, however, only mildly displace members of minority groups. Conclusions. Elite colleges and universities extend preferences to many types of students, yet affirmative action is the one most surrounded by controversy.     

Strategic Alternative Responses to Risks of Terrorism

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001 were a wake‐up call for changing our traditional response to risks of terrorism. Given that government and worldwide think‐tank organizations maintain that risks of terrorism will continue for the indefinite future, the following questions deserve strategic answers. How long can we respond to terrorism with tactical measures only, sustain current curtailments of some of our freedoms, travel, and quality of life, and absorb losses in human life and properties? Should not underlying strategic motivation lead to the tactical measures? Why do so many groups and individuals in some developing countries hate us? Is it because they fear that the ideas we export through television, movies, literature, and music have a corrupting influence on their cultures? Is it because of past operations that we conducted in such countries as Iran, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Granada? Can the genesis of the risks of terrorism to the homeland be traced to the unfavorable socioeconomic conditions in less‐privileged and developing countries, where civil and religious freedoms are close to nonexistent, and sanitary conditions, health and education, and critical infrastructures of essential utilities are almost at the same level that existed in the United States almost a century ago? If we could make progress at improving the quality of life of the billions of people in the developing countries and become more sensitive to their needs, cultures, and heritage, would their hatred subside? What other measures can we take to reduce their hatred, without compromising our basic cultural and democratic principles or their cultural and social heritage?     

Rate of strong uniform convergence of k-NN density estimates

Let f_n(x) be the univariate k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) density estimate proposed by Loftsgaarden and Quesenberry (1965). By using similar techniques as in Bahadur's representation of sample quantiles (1966), and by the recent results on the oscillation of empirical processes by Stute (1982), we derive the rate of strong uniform convergence of f_n(x) on some suitably chosen interval J_δ. Some comparison with the kernel estimates is given, as well as the choice of the bandwidth sequence relative to the sample size.     

The predictability of stock returns - a nonparametric approach

This paper reexamines the predictability of stock returns with a nonparametric model. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict one-month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametricmodel. We first identify, through a set of diagnostic tests, five lagged predictive factors from a linear model. Using these factors, we predict on -month-ahead stock index returns with a nonparametric approach. We find that our nonparametric model can correctly predict about 74% of stock index return signs. With various ex ante trading rules based on nonparametric predictions and transaction cost schedules, we then compare the performance of "managed" portfolios with that of the buy and hold portfolios. We fmd that the managed portfolios are mean-variance dominant over the buy-and-hold strategies when no or low transaction costs are assumed. When high transaction costs are assumed instead, the mean-variance dominance diminishes However,the Sharpe index of risk-adjusted portfolio performanceindicates that the managed portfolios significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategies even for the high-transaction cost scenario. We show that the difference in performance between the managed portfolios and the buy-and-hold strategies can be partially explained by the January effect or the small firm effect. In sum, this paper demonstrates the merits of using a nonparametric approach for predicting stock returns and testing market efficiency.     

Field Measurement of Dermal Soil Loading Attributable to Various Activities: Implications for Exposure Assessment

Estimates of soil adherence to skin are required for assessment of dermal exposures to contaminants in soils. Previously available estimates depend heavily on indirect measurements and/or artificial activities and reflect sampling of hands only. Results are presented here from direct measurement of soil loading on skin surfaces of volunteers before and after normal occupational and recreational activities that might reasonably be expected to lead to soil contact. Skin surfaces assayed included hands, forearms, lower legs, faces and/or feet. Observed hand loadings vary over five orders of magnitude (roughly from 10^–3 to 10² mg/cm²) and are dependent upon type of activity. Hand loadings within the current default range of 0.2 to 1.0 mg/cm² were produced by activities providing opportunity for relatively vigorous soil contact (rugby, farming). Loadings less than 0.2 mg/cm² were found on hands following activities presenting less opportunity for direct soil contact (soccer, professional grounds maintenance) and on other body parts under many conditions. The default range does not, however, represent a worst case. Children playing in mud on the shore of a lake generated geometric mean loadings well in excess of 1 mg/cm² on hands, arms, legs, and feet. Post-activity average loadings on hands were typically higher than average loadings on other body parts resulting from the same activity. Hand data from limited activities cannot, however, be used to conservatively predict loadings that might occur on other body surfaces without regard to activity since non-hand loadings attributable to higher contact activities exceeded hand loadings resulting from lower contact activities. Differences between pre- and post-activity loadings also demonstrate that dermal contact with soil is episodic. Typical background (pre-activity) geometric mean loadings appear to be on the order of 10^-2 mg/cm² or less. Because exposures are activity dependent, quantification of dermal exposure to soil will remain inadequate until data describing relevant human behavior (type of activity, frequency, duration including interval before bathing, clothing worn, etc.) are generated.     

The family system,temporary or permanent auxiliary ego: The differential fate of self-objects

This paper addresses the integration of developmental theory and family system theory. It is based on the assumption that the combination and integration of these two sets of theory gives the social work clinician the richest possible base for diagnostic assessment and intervention. Two points of intersection of these theories, birth and mate selection, are utilized to highlight the natural linkages between the theories and to demonstrate the combined power to more fully inform clinical practice.The human being like any other organism can be understood only in relation to its ecological niche, to which it is fitted by evolution and with which it is in balance or is striving for balance at every point of its life.     

Self Actualization in Marital Enrichment

The study attempted to evaluate the effectiveness of the Pairing Enrichment Program (PEP), a marriage enrichment program, in enhancing self-actualization. Shostrom's Personal Orientation Inventory (POI) was administered to an experimental group of married couples immediately prior to participating in PEP. A waiting list control group completed the POI at the same time. Three weeks later, following the completion of PEP for the experimental group, the POI was again administered to both groups. An analysis of co-variance was performed to test the effects of gender, group, and the interaction of these two factors on change in self-actualization (Post-POI minus Pre-POI), adjusting for six co-variables: Education of each, age of each, number of years married, and number of children. The results indicated that 1) being husband or wife had no significant effect on one's level of self-actualization, and that 2) the change in level of self-actualization was significantly greater (Positive Direction) for PEP participants than for non-PEP participants on the "I" and "C" scales of the POI     

Assessing Lund's critical values for testing for outliers in linear regression models

This note assesses Lund's critical bounds as approximations to the critical values of a size-a test for detecting single outlier in a multiple linear regression model. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the empirical sizes are very close to the nominal sizes, and the regressors have little effect on the empirical sizes. Lund's tables are revised to higher accuracy.     

On the distribution of quadratic forms in normal random variables

This paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for a quadratic form in singular normal random variables to be distributed as a given linear combination of independent noncentral chi-square variables. Using this result, an extension of Cochran's theorem to quadratic forms of noncentral chi-square variables is derived.