Speaking the Truth in Maritime Risk Assessment

Several major risk studies have been performed in recent years in the maritime transportation domain. These studies have had significant impact on management practices in the industry. The first, the Prince William Sound risk assessment, was reviewed by the National Research Council and found to be promising but incomplete, as the uncertainty in its results was not assessed. The difficulty in assessing this uncertainty is the different techniques that need to be used to model risk in this dynamic and data-scarce application area. In previous articles, we have developed the two pieces of methodology necessary to assess uncertainty in maritime risk assessment, a Bayesian simulation of the occurrence of situations with accident potential and a Bayesian multivariate regression analysis of the relationship between factors describing these situations and expert judgments of accident risk. In this article, we combine the methods to perform a full-scale assessment of risk and uncertainty for two case studies. The first is an assessment of the effects of proposed ferry service expansions in San Francisco Bay. The second is an assessment of risk for the Washington State Ferries, the largest ferry system in the United States.     

On Empirical Processes for Ergodic Diffusions and Rates of Convergence of M-estimators

Abstract. This paper contributes to the development of empirical process theory for ergodic diffusions. We prove an entropy‐type maximal inequality for the increments of the empirical process of an ergodic diffusion. The inequality is used to study the rate of convergence of M‐estimators.     

Ownership claims,valuation practices,and the unpacking of energy-landscape conflicts

There is now a substantive body of academic literature which focuses on protests against local infrastructural developments. This literature is often characterised by the key words ‘NIMBY’ or (facility-) ‘siting controversies’. The rapid development of renewable energy technologies – which are largely sited in rural areas – has created a new version of this controversy; energy-landscape conflicts. In many countries, large infrastructural developments are regulated through spatial planning legislation, often causing various tensions between new technologies, an evolving policy agenda, and a legislative framework which was largely conceived in a different era and which is slow to adapt. Alternatively, and in line with neo-liberal thinking, the logic of development can be subjected to cost-benefit analysis, whereby the value of the wind farm can be compared with the value of the ‘unspoiled’ landscape. This paper takes a more holistic approach to energy-landscape conflicts, by examining claims of ownership and notions and measures of value inherent in different claims and value systems which (seek to) influence decision-making. We examine both the logic of monetary valuation and the implicit value statements in various policy intervention options to point at the need for a more heterogeneous and multidisciplinary approach to policy evaluation. We then look at notions of ownership, rights and duties in relation to landscape and to our energy future, and we highlight the potential for using an analytical property rights framework which cuts across various levels of claims and value statements, from the national and ideological to the personal and practice-based.     

Crime,citizenship and community: neoliberal communitarian images of governmentality

This article discusses the emergence, in the field of crime and safety, of a formula of government that can be called neoliberal communitarianism. This is a paradoxical governmental strategy that combines a focus on ‘individual responsibility’, ‘community’ and a ‘selectively tough state’. The discussion is based on the Foucaultian triangle of strategy, political programmes and techniques. The substance of this application consists of a discussion of recent Dutch political programmes and techniques in crime and safety policies. The discussion includes the local case of Rotterdam, a city at times regarded as a ‘policy laboratory’. Specifically, the role that notions of citizenship and community play in crime and safety policies is analysed. We hereby point at two different manifestations of responsibilization – repressive responsibilization and facilitative responsibilization – aimed at two governmentally differentiated populations. In addition, we describe how neoliberal communitarianism entails the selective exclusion of subjects imagined as ‘high risk’. Because the government of crime tells us much about the government of ‘society’, neoliberal communitarianism is a useful concept to grasp contemporary changes in government in the Netherlands and in other European countries.     

Workers’ Perception of Chemical Risks: A Focus Group Study

Workers’ perceptions with respect to health and safety at work are rarely taken into account when considering the development of prevention programs. The aim of this study was to explore workers’ perceptions of chemical risks at the workplace, in order to investigate the prerequisites for a workplace health program. A qualitative study was conducted involving seven focus groups of 5–10 participants (blue‐collar workers) each. All groups were homogeneous in terms of sex, work status, language, and company membership. Results showed that several factors have an important influence on workers’ perception of chemical risks. Workers assess risks by means of both sensory and empirical diagnosis and are concerned about the long‐term health consequences. They perceive the threat of chemical risks as high. Despite this, they are resigned to accepting the risks. Existing formal sources of information are rarely consulted because they are judged to be difficult to understand and not user friendly. Instead, workers tend to obtain information from informal sources. Communication problems with and lack of trust in prevention advisers and hierarchy are frequently mentioned. Workers feel that their specific knowledge of their working conditions and their proposals for practical, cost‐effective solutions to improve health and safety at the workplace are insufficiently taken into account. The use of focus groups yielded a useful insight into workers’ perceptions of chemical risks. Our findings suggest that training programs for prevention advisers should include topics such as understanding of workers’ perceptions, usefulness of a participatory approach, and communication and education skills.     

Linear generalizations of various matric-t distributions

The concept of a matric-t variate is extended to cases where the positive (definite) part of the variate, which is usually Wishart distributed independently of the normal part, is a linear sum of positive (definite) variates with positive coefficients. These distributions and their quadratic forms are of importance i.a, for the exact solution to the multi¬variate Behrens-Fisher problem. A few useful identities con¬cerning the invariant polynomials with matrix arguments are derived     

Visual studies of music and dance

This article explores the typology of photographic images of school and schooling used by historians who have developed visual methodologies in their research and scholarship over recent years. The authors consider the question, raised by a number of scholars, concerning the value of image‐based research and the capacity of the visual alone to produce new knowledge aside from other traditional sources. The ‘progressive image’ is discussed as one type of school photograph in the context of a range of other types and the article traces the stories of two schools, known to be progressive and innovative during the mid‐twentieth century through archived imagery. The social relationships forged between educators, artists, photographers and policy makers, known and unknown to the historian, it is suggested are by‐products of the process of considering the progressive image in the history of education, opening up new and potentially rich research agendas for the future.     

Reconciling marginalism with egalitarianism: consistency, monotonicity, and implementation of egalitarian Shapley values

One of the main issues in economic allocation problems is the trade-off between marginalism and egalitarianism. In the context of cooperative games this trade-off can be framed as one of choosing to allocate according to the Shapley value or the equal division solution. In this paper we provide three different characterizations of egalitarian Shapley values being convex combinations of the Shapley value and the equal division solution. First, from the perspective of a variable player set, we show that all these solutions satisfy the same reduced game consistency. Second, on a fixed player set, we characterize this class of solutions using monotonicity properties. Finally, towards a strategic foundation, we provide a non-cooperative implementation for these solutions which only differ in the probability of breakdown at a certain stage of the game. These characterizations discover fundamental differences as well as intriguing connections between marginalism and egalitarianism.     

What Works for Whom,How and under What Circumstances? Testing Moderated Mediation of Intervention Effects on Externalizing Behavior in Children

In this study, we investigate whether changes in child social cognitive functioning and parenting are the mechanisms through which an individually delivered real‐world child intervention, Stay Cool Kids, aimed at preventing externalizing problem behavior in high‐risk elementary school children, induces changes in child behavior. Moreover, we tested whether mediation was moderated by child characteristics (gender and personality). The sample consisted of 264 fourth‐grade children displaying externalizing behavior (TRF t‐score > 60). Forty‐eight schools were randomly assigned to the intervention or no‐intervention control condition. The results of mediation analyses provided evidence for child positive self‐perception and maternal involvement as working mechanisms of the intervention. Child personality factor extraversion moderated the mediating effect of involvement whereas no moderated mediation was found for gender. Working mechanisms of the intervention differ for children with different personality characteristiscs.