中越边境跨国婚姻问题研究(子女篇)——以广西大新县隘江村为例

一、中越边境跨国婚姻子女:一群特殊的孩子 广西壮族自治区大新县隘江村是一个边境行政村,与越南的高平省下琅县里国社板当屯、明龙社六幸屯隔归春河(水面宽约10米)相望,与越南的重庆县潭水社板约村、板逐屯也相隔不远.隘江村共有5个自然屯、9个村民小组、277户家庭,共1173人.[1]从1989年至2005年的17年间,隘江村产生了和越南妇女结婚的跨国婚姻28户,占该村227户家庭的12.3%.在这28户跨国婚姻家庭里,有1户没有子女,有1户没有婚生子女,有3户刚结婚还没有生育子女;在23户有婚生子女的跨国婚姻家庭中,共有37名子女.[2]     

Smoothing for discrete-valued time series

We deal with smoothed estimators for conditional probability functions of discrete-valued time series { Y_t } under two different settings. When the conditional distribution of Y_t given its lagged values falls in a parametric family and depends on exogenous random variables, a smoothed maximum (partial) likelihood estimator for the unknown parameter is proposed. While there is no prior information on the distribution, various nonparametric estimation methods have been compared and the adjusted Nadaraya–Watson estimator stands out as it shares the advantages of both Nadaraya–Watson and local linear regression estimators. The asymptotic normality of the estimators proposed has been established in the manner of sparse asymptotics, which shows that the smoothed methods proposed outperform their conventional, unsmoothed, parametric counterparts under very mild conditions. Simulation results lend further support to this assertion. Finally, the new method is illustrated via a real data set concerning the relationship between the number of daily hospital admissions and the levels of pollutants in Hong Kong in 1994–1995. An ad hoc model selection procedure based on a local Akaike information criterion is proposed to select the significant pollutant indices.     

网上CAI

用好现代先进技术,开展网络建设,是教育信息化的第一步。本文基于这一思想,介绍了网上CAI的设计思路,描述了该系统的功能,以及实现系统所采用的技术措施。     

广东普通工科高等教育的办学效益分析研究

对广东普通工科高等教育的办学效益问题,从结构布局效益、层次与规模效益进行了讨论,提出了提高办学效益的基本对策。     

Kernel Density-Based Linear Regression Estimate

For linear regression models with non normally distributed errors, the least squares estimate (LSE) will lose some efficiency compared to the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). In this article, we propose a kernel density-based regression estimate (KDRE) that is adaptive to the unknown error distribution. The key idea is to approximate the likelihood function by using a nonparametric kernel density estimate of the error density based on some initial parameter estimate. The proposed estimate is shown to be asymptotically as efficient as the oracle MLE which assumes the error density were known. In addition, we propose an EM type algorithm to maximize the estimated likelihood function and show that the KDRE can be considered as an iterated weighted least squares estimate, which provides us some insights on the adaptiveness of KDRE to the unknown error distribution. Our Monte Carlo simulation studies show that, while comparable to the traditional LSE for normal errors, the proposed estimation procedure can have substantial efficiency gain for non normal errors. Moreover, the efficiency gain can be achieved even for a small sample size.     

Semiparametric Smooth Coefficient Stochastic Frontier Model With Panel Data

ABSTRACT

We investigate the semiparametric smooth coefficient stochastic frontier model for panel data in which the distribution of the composite error term is assumed to be of known form but depends on some environmental variables. We propose multi-step estimators for the smooth coefficient functions as well as the parameters of the distribution of the composite error term and obtain their asymptotic properties. The Monte Carlo study demonstrates that the proposed estimators perform well in finite samples. We also consider an application and perform model specification test, construct confidence intervals, and estimate efficiency scores that depend on some environmental variables. The application uses a panel data on 451 large U.S. firms to explore the effects of computerization on productivity. Results show that two popular parametric models used in the stochastic frontier literature are likely to be misspecified. Compared with the parametric estimates, our semiparametric model shows a positive and larger overall effect of computer capital on the productivity. The efficiency levels, however, were not much different among the models. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

利比亚内乱的部落文化解读

2011年利比亚内乱揭示出该国长期存在的内部分歧,引发了人们对利比亚正式和非正式组织角色尤其是部落族群在其政治生活中的角色与影响的关注。部落林立和殖民历史使得利比亚一直处于无国家状态,而利比亚国家形态的破坏性本质又使部落忠诚得以进一步延续。卡扎菲执政期间对待部落的理论与政策实践并非高度统一。利比亚在内乱下暴露出的错综复杂的国内社会政治生态,政治动员和武装组织沿着部落或地区划分而时有发生,部落文化政治在内乱中的强劲表达,凸显了后卡扎菲时期利比亚所面临的困境。     

新旧社会交替时期中国女性追求解放的历程——浅析繁漪、陈白露、愫芳

在中国现代文学史上,女性的觉醒和反抗是一个重要的传统主题。曹禺先生塑造了繁漪、陈白露、愫芳三位身处黑暗而渴望光明的女性形象,通过描述这三位女性在觉醒和反抗过程中各自表现出的不同的特点,形象地揭示了在新旧社会交替时期中国女性追求解放的艰难历程。     

改进的UML活动图在建模中的研究与实现

在分析工作流建模系统的基础上,介绍了UML语言的发展和优势以及存在的不足,提出了一种基于改进的UML活动图的工作流建模方法。通过一个具体的半导体制造企业工作中的封装测试的流程建模实例,描述了建模过程;根据角色对任务进行分配,对模型的执行做了分析。结果表明,运用改进后的UML活动图进行工作流建模,成功地改善了一些传统工作流建模过程的缺点,能比较完整、准确地描述工作流建模过程,加速了开发进程。