On optimal control and macroeconomic policy

Control theory has important contributions to make to the theory of macro-economic policy. These include a unified view of estimation, forecasting and control and a consequently clearer focus in identifying performance criteria. Further, the methods of control theory imply objectivity and a need for assumptions to be made explicit. By contrast, the UK lacks a research body for forecasting and policy evaluation detached from doctrinal or methodological commitment. Engineering control methods, however, diverge from those wholly acceptable to economic systems in that, in the latter, the controller is himself part of the system he controls and some of his controls operate only indirectly. A further difference is that economics cannot as yet furnish the controller with reliable models of system behaviour linking policy instruments to set targets.     

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The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

THE EURO AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INTERNATIONAL DEBT FLOWS

Greater financial integration between core and peripheral European Monetary Union (EMU) members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms. Core EMU countries took on extra foreign leverage to expose themselves to the peripherals. We present a stylized model that illustrates possible mechanisms for these developments. We then analyze the geography of international debt flows using multiple data sources and provide evidence that after the euro's introduction, core EMU countries increased their borrowing from outside of the EMU and their lending to the EMU periphery. Moreover, we present evidence that large core EMU banks' lending to periphery borrowers was linked to their borrowing from outside of the euro area.     

Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Maternal Sensitivity and Child Responsiveness: Associations with Social Context,Maternal Characteristics,and Child Characteristics in a Multivariate Analysis

This study examined unique associations of multiple distal context variables (family socioeconomic status [SES], maternal employment, and paternal parenting) and proximal maternal (personality, intelligence, and knowledge; behavior, self‐perceptions, and attributions) and child (age, gender, representation, language, and sociability) characteristics with maternal sensitivity and child responsiveness in 254 European American mothers and their firstborn 20‐month‐olds. Specific unique relations emerged in hierarchical regression analyses. Mothers who worked fewer hours per week and reported less dissonance in their husbands' didactic parenting, whose children spoke using more vocabulary, and who reported less limit setting in their parenting and attributed their parenting failures to internal causes were observed to be more sensitive in their interactions with their children. Children in higher SES families, whose mothers worked fewer hours and attributed their parenting failures to internal causes, and who themselves used more vocabulary were observed to be more responsive in their interactions with their mothers. Although potential associations are many, when considered together, unique associations with maternal sensitivity and child responsiveness are few, and some are shared whereas others are unique.     

Twitter and Political Campaigning

The use of Twitter by politicians, parties, and the general audience in politics, particularly during election campaigns, has become an extremely popular research field almost overnight. Even though Twitter, a medium that emerged early in 2006 – the first tweet was posted on 21 March 2006 by Jack Dorsey, co‐founder of Twitter – and elections occurring only every few years, it has already received much academic attention. The studies produced are very diverse, ranging from analyzing how politicians or citizens use Twitter, to looking at their activities and the content of political Twitter messages, to network studies of Twitter users. This review will cover many types of studies that characterize the field. The large diversity in the studies conducted on elections will be represented in this review of approaches.     

Financial Reciprocity and Elder Care: Interdependent Resource Transfers

A sample from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study was used to examine the influence of parent-to-child financial transfers and economic resources on child-to-parent financial transfers, caregiving, time-help, and coresidence as multiple, interdependent transfers from middle-aged adult children to their elderly parents. There were strong positive effects of prior parent-to-child financial transfers in the models of caregiving, time help, and coresidence but no effect on child-to-parent financial transfers. Coresidence, caregiving, and time-help are complements but there was no interdependence between child-to-parent financial transfers and caregiving or time-help. The effects of parents’ incomes and net worth are interpreted as evidence about motives for transfers to them.