现代结构特征的浅析与展望

从现代结构的基本概念出发,阐明了现代结构的特征和前景展望,作者恳请专业同行发扬大胆创新与精心实践相结合的精神,推动现代结构和现代结构技术的加速发展。     

Establishing decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment models

ABSTRACT

Traditional credit risk assessment models do not consider the time factor; they only think of whether a customer will default, but not the when to default. The result cannot provide a manager to make the profit-maximum decision. Actually, even if a customer defaults, the financial institution still can gain profit in some conditions. Nowadays, most research applied the Cox proportional hazards model into their credit scoring models, predicting the time when a customer is most likely to default, to solve the credit risk assessment problem. However, in order to fully utilize the fully dynamic capability of the Cox proportional hazards model, time-varying macroeconomic variables are required which involve more advanced data collection. Since short-term default cases are the ones that bring a great loss for a financial institution, instead of predicting when a loan will default, a loan manager is more interested in identifying those applications which may default within a short period of time when approving loan applications. This paper proposes a decision tree-based short-term default credit risk assessment model to assess the credit risk. The goal is to use the decision tree to filter the short-term default to produce a highly accurate model that could distinguish default lending. This paper integrates bootstrap aggregating (Bagging) with a synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) into the credit risk model to improve the decision tree stability and its performance on unbalanced data. Finally, a real case of small and medium enterprise loan data that has been drawn from a local financial institution located in Taiwan is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed approach with the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models, it was found that the classifying recall rate and precision rate of the proposed model was obviously superior to the logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.     

论孙刘联盟的破坏——诸葛亮的失误之一

诸葛亮在《隆中对策》中确定了联吴抗曹、兴复汉室的方针 ,取得了赤壁之战的胜利 ,显示了孙刘联盟的生命力。但荆州的丢失和夷陵的惨败 ,既导致孙刘联盟的破坏 ,又导致诸葛亮偏师北伐的失败。在这点上 ,诸葛亮负有主要责任 ,成为他的严重失误之一     

关于绵阳市经济可持续发展的几点思考

提出了绵阳市经济可持续发展的基本构想 ,即 :“技术进步优先 ,增长方式转变 ,资源环境保护” ,并就绵阳市实现经济可持续发展目标的具体内容进行了阐述     

川中丘陵区小麦品种绵阳26号的产量构成因素分析

运用相关、通径分析的方法分析了四川省小麦主推品种绵阳 2 6号的产量及其构成因素之间的关系。结果表明 ,绵阳 2 6号小麦品种千粒重的变异不大 ,穗粒数是产量构成的最重要因素 ,合理的有效穗是高产的前提。     

课程改革背景下教师职业倦怠存在之原因分析

通过采用国际公认的“教师职业倦怠问卷”（MBI）对500名中小学教师的调查发现，我国中小学教师的职业倦怠已普遍存在，对当前正在推行的基础教育课程改革和新课程的实施带来了不利影响。倦怠存在的原因，与课程改革和新课程的实施对教师角色转变、知识结构、能力素养的高要求以及在此基础上增加其工作量的事实有关。     

商业企业自有品牌战略研究

深入分析品牌的作用和自有品牌的特性,并就自有品牌的创造、服务保障、法律保护等提出若干对策。     

Additive and Multiplicative Models and Multistage Carcinogenesis Theory

In light of the Armitage-Doll multistage carcinogenesis theory, this paper examines the assumption that an additive relative risk relationship is indicative of two carcinogens that affect the same stage in the cancer process. We present formulas to compute excess cancer risks for a variety of patterns for limited exposure durations to two carcinogens that affect the first and penultimate stages; and using an index of synergy proposed by Thomas (1982), we find a number of these patterns to produce additive, or nearly additive, relative risk relationships. The consistent feature of these patterns is that the two exposure periods are of short duration and occur close together.     

四川盆地九龙山构造须二段致密砂岩孔隙的成因及勘探意义

须二段砂岩以徽孔隙为主,少量的长石、岩屑溶孔,不见或罕见碳酸盐矿物的溶孔,利用同位素资料和热力学理论解释了这种现象。凡孔隙度大于5％的样品,就有绿泥石包壳发育,该层段表现为低电阻率和高含水饱和度,导致气、水层的误判。详细的岩石学研究使我们认识到粘土矿物在成岩过程中起到的特殊作用。自生粘土发育的样品,不论其产状如何,都比不含粘土而富含碳酸盐矿物的层段的样品储集性能好。提出了孔隙寿命的概念,并讨论了它在油气勘探中的意义。     

L-Fuzzy拓扑群的直积

证明了任意一族Ｌ－Ｆｕｚｚｙ拓扑群的直积仍是Ｌ－Ｆｕｚｚｙ拓扑群．研究了Ｌ－Ｆｕｚｚｙ拓扑群的直积的层次结构，揭示了它与分明拓扑群的直积之间的联系