Health status,health problems and practices among refugees from the Middle East,Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia

Recent refugees from Poland, Romania, Iraq, and Vietnam were extensively interviewed to assess their health, health care utilization, and health services use barriers. 277 recent arrivals from these countries and 63 previously arrived Laotians comprised the 1983-1985 sample from the Detroit metropolitan area. Results from a 195-item bilingual questionnaire indicated good overall health and little evidence of serious physical health symptoms. Dental health was the area of greatest reported need. Prenatal care and mental health services were additional areas of need noted by researchers. Barriers to health service utilization were primarily language related. There were major differences in both health problems and health service utilization among the 4 groups surveyed.     

On the Sequential Selection Problem*

Kwan and Yuan [13] considered the sequential selection problem in which an employer should arrange the sequence of interviews with job applicants to fill a position. In this note, it is shown that their selection problem would be alternately interpreted as an optimal search problem or, more specifically, a discrete search problem with a stationary target. A more generalized version of the ordering problem is proposed which explicitly considers the time value of money. Also, the optimality of the ordering strategy in the generalized problem is proven by the pair-wise exchange method, which is simpler than the induction hypothesis-based proof. The sequention selection problem is shown to be a special case of the general ordering problem where the discount rate is zero.     

Are they ideological renegades? Fathers' experiences on taking parental leave and gender dynamics in Korea: A qualitative study

Despite their fear of repercussions on career advancement and gender identity, Korean fathers taking parental leave have continually increased. Why do Korean fathers take parental leave in spite of the risk of being stigmatized as less masculine and less ideal workers? Are they willing to be ‘ideological renegades' to be new involved fathers? In‐depth interviews with fathers who took parental leave provide interesting answers. Overall, taking parental leave does not make fathers become ideological renegades since it is mainly utilized in a manner that accommodates the work devotion schema, deviating from the formal policy objectives. This deviant utilization is encouraged and even valued by organizations. This may be part of a psychological contract between organizations and employees, ensuring that employees are dedicated to their career even during parental leave. Furthermore, beyond the legal eligibility of uptake, informal but powerful ‘organizational eligibility' such as high performance or their contribution to the organization, makes not only the likelihood but also the aftermath of taking up different across fathers. As a result, a hierarchy among fathers with class connotations emerges. This hierarchy among fathers, combined with the traditional gender hierarchy, may reinforce the masculine fabric of ideal workers as the norm.     

A Mandate for Honesty: Jeff Young's No Bullshit Therapy

Jeff Young talks about having been trained to be formal with clients, and his gradual realisation that he could return to the more direct ways of speech he learned as a child, and combine that with warmth. He found that clients and fellow professionals welcomed a therapist who did not ‘beat around the bush’. Together, Jeff and Ron talk about when directness is appropriate, and how directness needs to be modified for particular clients.     

Contemporary Political Communications: Audiences, Politicians and the Media in International Research

Research into political communication has grown rapidly in the past three decades, shifting from specific, quantitative and utilitarian studies to include a broad variety of research questions, methods and theoretical frameworks. Interdisciplinary work in political communication takes audiences, political actors (such as governments and politicians), and media content and media institutions as central foci. Research has traditionally focused on election campaign-specific studies within national contexts. Emerging research, however, is now addressing broader questions about media texts and organisations and also about representations and power. This research is working to trace technological changes and developments in an era of globalised media and political communication and developing new, complex conceptions of audience agency and reception.     

Improving the accuracy and operational predictability of project cost forecasts: an adaptive combination approach

Conducting an early warning forecast to detect potential cost overrun is essential for timely and effective decision-making in project control. This paper presents a forecast combination model that adaptively identifies the best forecast and optimises various combinations of commonly used project cost forecasting models. To do so, a forecast error simulator is formulated to visualise and quantify likely error profiles of forecast models and their combinations. The adaptive cost combination (ACC) model was applied to a pilot project for numerical illustration as well as to real world projects for practical implementation. The results provide three valuable insights into more effective project control and forecasting. First, the best forecasting model may change in individual projects according to the project progress and the management priority (i.e. accuracy, outperformance or large errors). Second, adaptive combination of simple, index-based forecasts tends to improve forecast accuracy, while mitigating the risk of large errors. Third, a post-mortem analysis of seven real projects indicated that the simple average of two most commonly used cost forecasts can be 31.2% more accurate, on average, than the most accurate alternative forecasts.     

Local Control Strategy: Simple Analyses of Air Pollution Data Can Reveal Heterogeneity in Longevity Outcomes

Claims from observational studies that use traditional model specification searches often fail to replicate, partially because the available data tend to be biased. There is an urgent need for an alternative statistical analysis strategy, that is not only simple and easily understood but also is more likely to give reliable insights when the available data have not been designed and balanced. The alternative strategy known as local control first generates local, nonparametric effect‐size estimates (fair treatment comparisons) and only then asks whether the observed variation in these local estimates can be predicted from potential confounding factors. Here, we illustrate application of local control to a historical air pollution data set describing a “natural experiment” initiated by the federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970. Our reanalysis reveals subgroup heterogeneity in the effects of air quality regulation on elderly longevity (one size does not fit all), and we show that this heterogeneity is largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental confounders other than air quality.     

Evaluating Potential Distribution of High‐Risk Aquatic Invasive Species in the Water Garden and Aquarium Trade at a Global Scale Based on Current Established Populations

Aquatic non‐native invasive species are commonly traded in the worldwide water garden and aquarium markets, and some of these species pose major threats to the economy, the environment, and human health. Understanding the potential suitable habitat for these species at a global scale and at regional scales can inform risk assessments and predict future potential establishment. Typically, global habitat suitability models are fit for freshwater species with only climate variables, which provides little information about suitable terrestrial conditions for aquatic species. Remotely sensed data including topography and land cover data have the potential to improve our understanding of suitable habitat for aquatic species. In this study, we fit species distribution models using five different model algorithms for three non‐native aquatic invasive species with bioclimatic, topographic, and remotely sensed covariates to evaluate potential suitable habitat beyond simple climate matches. The species examined included a frog (Xenopus laevis), toad (Bombina orientalis), and snail (Pomacea spp.). Using a unique modeling approach for each species including background point selection based on known established populations resulted in robust ensemble habitat suitability models. All models for all species had test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values greater than 0.70 and percent correctly classified values greater than 0.65. Importantly, we employed multivariate environmental similarity surface maps to evaluate potential extrapolation beyond observed conditions when applying models globally. These global models provide necessary forecasts of where these aquatic invasive species have the potential for establishment outside their native range, a key component in risk analyses.     

A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols

Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, an emerging viral infection with a global case fatality rate of 35.5%, caused major outbreaks first in 2012 and 2015, though new cases are continuously reported around the world. Transmission is believed to mainly occur in healthcare settings through aerosolized particles. This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for the exposed population. Results from a typical scenario show the daily mean risk of infection to be the highest for the nurses and healthcare workers (8.49 × 10^?4 and 7.91 × 10^?4, respectively), and the lowest for family visitors and patients staying in the same room (3.12 × 10^?4 and 1.29 × 10^?4, respectively). Sensitivity analysis indicates that more than 90% of the uncertainty in the risk characterization is due to the viral concentration in saliva. Assessment of risk interventions showed that respiratory masks were found to have a greater effect in reducing the risks for all the groups evaluated (>90% risk reduction), while increasing the air exchange was effective for the other patients in the same room only (up to 58% risk reduction).