Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for detecting streakiness in sports

Summary.  When an individual player or team enjoys periods of good form, and when these occur, is a widely observed phenomenon typically called 'streakiness'. It is interesting to assess which team is a streaky team, or who is a streaky player in sports. Such competitors might have a large number of successes during some periods and few or no successes during other periods. Thus, their success rate is not constant over time. We provide a Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints and the associated success rates simultaneously for these competitors. The procedure is based on a series of nested hypothesis tests each using the Bayes factor or the Bayesian information criterion. At each stage, we only need to compare a model with one changepoint with a model based on a constant success rate. Thus, the method circumvents the computational complexity that we would normally face in problems with an unknown number of changepoints. We apply the procedure to data corresponding to sports teams and players from basketball, golf and baseball.     

Family policy in Korea

In Korea, family policy as a public policy gained interest in the 1980s, when the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs (since January 1995 the Ministry of Health and Welfare) renamed the Maternal and Child Bureau the Family Welfare Bureau. This paper first presents a brief overview of the traditional family system and values in Korea and examines changes in economic and social indicators, changes in family functions and roles, and changes in attitudes toward family that have occurred following industrialization and urbanization. The paper then briefly explains some of the problems Korean families face today. It next examines the Family Planning Program and its results. Finally, it turns to an examination and critique of the policies and programs administered by the Family Welfare Bureau.Yeonoak Baik is a Family Advocacy Therapist for the 8th U.S. Army c/o Commander, 43rd Surgical Hospital (MA), ATTN: EAMC-SH-FAP, Room D-108, Unit #15190, APO AP, 96271-0126. She works in Korea with U.S. military soldiers and their dependents. Her research interests include child welfare, single-parent families, and domestic violence. Her MSW was received from the School of Social Work, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.Her research interests include children of divorced families, social welfare policy, and social work administration in Korea. She received her Ph.D. in Social Welfare at Seoul National University in Korea.     

Perceptions of drinking among Hispanic college students: how qualitative research can inform the development of collegiate alcohol abuse prevention programs

Alcohol abuse on college campuses continues to be a significant public health issue and health promotion strategies are being directed at changing the culture of collegiate drinking. From a qualitative research perspective such efforts remain uniformed since this area of research is currently dominated by large-scale surveys that illuminate little regarding undergraduate perceptions of alcohol use. This study describes results conducted on perceptions of drinking among college students, and discusses the implications these results may have for developing collegiate alcohol abuse prevention programs.     

EDITING A LARGE-SCALE DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY–THE EXPERIENCE OF THE MELBOURNE FAMILY SURVEY1

This paper discusses the editing procedures for a survey on family formation conducted in Melbourne during 1971. Examples are given of the incidence and types of inconsistencies revealed during the editing stage in the mainly quantitative variables concerning childbearing, numbers of children, and the demographic characteristics of the children. The principal point emphasized is the need for automatic detection and manual correction of coding deficiencies in a survey of this type, i.e. an intensive, “once-off” survey, with a sample size of a few thousand, from which detailed and complex analyses are planned.     

Comparison of basic data for the National Survey of Residential Group Care Facilities: 1966-1982

Major findings from this analysis of the data gathered in preparation for the 1966 and 1981 surveys of children's residential group care facilities are as follows below. In the field of residential care of pregnant adolescents, it appears that, despite an increase in the number of births to adolescent mothers since 1966, the preferred mode of serving this population is no longer residential group care. While there has been a small increase (6 facilities) in the number of residential facilities for pregnant adolescents that operate under public auspices, the 49% decrease in facilities under private auspices is the real indicator of the direction of residential services to pregnant adolescents since 1965. In the Child Welfare Stream, the most notable change between 1965 and 1981 was the decrease in the relative proportion of residential group care facilities for dependent, neglected, or abused children and youth. Overall, child welfare facilities accounted for 55% of all residential facilities listed for survey in 1965; in 1981 this percentage had fallen to 37%. As in 1965 the Child Welfare Stream was dominated by the private sector in 1981, with 83% of all child welfare facilities operating under private auspices. This pattern was found for most of the 50 individual states as well. In the Juvenile Justice Stream, the overall increase of 154% in the number of residential facilities since the 1965 listing is due in part to a notable increase in the number of private facilities in this stream of care. Although the majority of juvenile justice facilities are still public, there has been an increase of 17% since 1965 in the proportion of facilities under private auspices. An even greater increase in total number of facilities than was seen in the Juvenile Justice Stream is seen in the mental health field between 1965 and 1981. There were almost four times as many residential mental health facilities listed for survey in 1981 as in 1965. From representing about one-eighth of the total number of all residential group care facilities for children and youth with special problems or needs, the Mental Health Stream increased to a quarter of all such facilities by 1981. As in the earlier study, the Mental Health Stream was dominated by the private sector in 1981. The proportion of mental health facilities under private auspices had increased by 16% since 1965, indicating an even greater involvement of the private sector in the delivery of residential mental health services to children and youth.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

The reflecting team as a reflection of second order therapeutic ideals

The reflecting (R.T.) team is examined within its theoretical, therapeutic and training contexts. A distinction is made between the reflecting team technique (R.T.T.) and the reflecting team process (R.T.P.), in order to explore whether or not the practice of team reflection is consistent with the requirements of the second order family therapies, the theoretical development which supported the R.T.'s emergence and subsequent popularity. The critique of the R.T.P. suggests that although this therapeutic process does represent attempts towards increasing acceptance of complexity, reduced attempts to control, collaboration, interconnectedness and contextual respect, there is little room for complacency either theoretically or practically.     

Household Debt and Marital Instability: Evidence from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study

Korean society has recently experienced rapid increases in household debt and divorce rates. This study investigates whether household debt and debt ratios lower marital stability and increase the probability of divorce among Korean families. Six-year panels from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) household surveys were used for analysis. The effect of household debt upon the probability of divorce was estimated through pooled and population-averaged Logit models. The results suggest that household financial strain measured by the amount of household debt and the debt-to-income ratios does not significantly affect the probability of divorce. This finding contradicts the widespread notion that households’ excessive borrowing has been partially responsible for the recent increase in divorce rates in Korea.

Prevalence and Diagnostic Correlates of DSM-IV Pathological Gambling in Psychiatric Outpatients

Studies of the prevalence of pathological gambling (PG) in psychiatric and substance abusing patients suggest that the disorder is not rare. Most studies have been of substance abusers in treatment, and the rate of PG has been found to be several times higher than the rate found in community based epidemiological surveys. However, only one study has examined the prevalence of PG in a heterogeneous sample of patients, and this was a study of psychiatric inpatients. We are not aware of any prior study of the prevalence of PG in a psychiatric outpatient sample. In the present report from the Rhode Island Methods to Improve Diagnosis and Services (MIDAS) project we examined the current and lifetime prevalence of PG in 1,709 psychiatric outpatients interviewed with a semi-structured diagnostic interview that included a module to diagnose DSM-IV PG. Forty (2.3%) patients had a lifetime history of DSM-IV PG, all of whom had at least one other DSM-IV axis I disorder. Patients with PG had significantly more axis I disorders than patients without PG, and had significantly higher rates of bipolar disorder, social phobia, panic disorder with agoraphobia, alcohol use disorder, and other impulse control disorders. Possible reasons for the low prevalence of PG in our sample are discussed.