Informing the Public About Uncertain Risks

Many problems arise in connection with the communication of risk information. In this article the content of the information communicated is taken as a starting-point for analyzing the risk communication process. We studied the way in which authorities communicated health risks to local residents in Dutch soil pollution situations and found that communication problems were characterized more by misunderstanding and conflict between parties with different views and interests than by a lack of understanding. Therefore, it is important to look more closely at the way the communicators of information (in our cases, officials) select risk information from risk assessments, and to study the effects that the information selected has on the receivers (in our cases, residents). Both the process of selection by the officials and the process of interpretation by the residents will be shown to be influenced by the different institutional backgrounds. The article presents a new approach to risk communication. Both the risk information presented by the authorities and the public reactions to this risk information are considered to reflect the institutional background of authorities and residents, and can be analyzed in these terms. Such an approach has consequences for the study of risk communication and the manner in which it is practiced.     

Ascertaining the effect of planned organizational change on the work environment

In a dynamic environment, organizations often are required to effect major changes in operations. The success of such changes invariably depends upon numerous factors one of which is how the change affects the work environment. Therefore, in planning organizational change it is important to consider the work environment and to objectively evaluate changes in the work environment in a timely fashion so that corrective actions may be formulated if needed. Such framing and monitoring of the organizational change facilitates successful implementation of the organizational change. This paper suggests a measure which may be used in evaluating an organization's work environment. A case is discussed.     

On the dynamics of populations with two age groups

By restricting the number of age groups to two and by introducing continued fractions, the dynamics of populations with deterministically changing vital rates are completely specified at all times. Explicit expressions for the sequence of the product of population projection matrices are given. From these, relative age distribution and reproductive values to any desired accuracy are obtained as functions of the vital rates. Thus, the results given in this paper are stronger than any existing weak ergodic theorems.     

Improving the Efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen Estimator: the Naive Local Constant Estimator

Abstract.  The Nelson–Aalen estimator is well known to be an asymptotically efficient estimator of the cumulative hazard function, see Andersen et al. ( Statistical models based on counting processes , Springer-Verlag, New York, 1993) among many others. In this paper, we show that the efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen estimator can be considerably improved by using more information in the estimation process than the traditional Nelson–Aalen estimator uses. While our approach results in a biased estimator, the variance improvement is substantial. By optimizing the balance between the bias loss and the variance improvement, we obtain results on the efficiency gain. Several examples for known failure time distributions are used to illustrate these ideas.     

Perspectives on Regional and Enterprise Marginality: Dairying in Michigan's North Country1

Abstract Dairy farmers in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, an economically marginal rural region, are encumbered by contextual constraints that are not similarly faced by their downstate counterparts. However, this does not mean that they are any less ambitious or less efficient in dealing with the resources available to them. Indeed, dairying and similar small-scale economic enterprises in this and other marginal contexts may be quite competitive and sustainable if appropriate sociopolitical supports are instituted and, in the case of dairying, if marketing orders and regulatory policies are formulated and implemented in light of their impact upon the economic growth and viability of the wider region. To explore this issue, we consider the situations, basic characteristics, and restructuring trends over time of dairy farms in three upstate localities as compared with that of a downstate dairy farming community.     

The Development of Urban Neighbourhoods and the Benefit of Indication Systems

The last few years much use is being made ofso-called indication systems to map the development ofneighbourhoods. It is hoped that these systems quicklybring possible livability problems to light, so thatpeople can intervene in accordance with policy.In this article the advantages and pitfalls of such anindication system are gone into. Such a system has totake into account the fact that the development ofneighbourhoods does not have a fixed pattern.Furthermore the much-used objective indicators oftendo not mesh with the subjective perception ofresidents and the appraisal processes ofprofessionals. Also much more consideration will haveto be given to social characteristics, which in ourday have become increasingly more determining for thelivability of neighbourhoods. It is also importantthat the action of managers be part of acharacterization of neighbourhoods. It is being arguedthat an indication system cannot be confined toregistering indicators and other data, for it has todirectly contribute to policy interventions. That iswhy a good indication system takes both facts and creation of an image into account, as well aslivability characteristics and theconsiderations of residents and managers. In a fewbrief concluding observations, the different functionsan indication system can have as a policy instrumentare gone into.     

Propensity to adopt innovative housing: Development of knowledge indexes

The process by which energy efficient housing alternatives is diffused through society in relation to the information flow is relatively unknown. The major purpose of this study was to validate a continuum of the propensity to adopt alternative housing (passive and active solar, earth sheltered and retrofitted) based on knowledge level. Findings indicate knowledge indices are valid predictors of consumer acceptance of energy efficient housing alternatives. A greater level of knowledge was correlated with respondents willing to adopt an alternative housing type.     

Improving the quality of child welfare services: needs assessment for staff training

Competency-based needs assessment surveys can be useful in assessing worker training needs in child welfare. Worker and supervisor surveys, consisting largely of task-based ability statements, constitute the core of this approach. Additional information can also be obtained from supervisors and allied professionals. Data from a study of 276 frontline child welfare workers in Alaska and Oregon are used to illustrate the utility of this approach.