Static Numbers to Dynamic Statistics: Designing a Policy-Friendly Social Policy Indicator Framework

In line with the economic crisis and rapid socio-demographic changes, the interest in ??social?? and ??well-being?? indicators has been revived. Social indicator movements of the 1960s resulted in the establishment of social indicator statistical frameworks; that legacy has remained intact in many national governments and international organisations. With this background, this research examines whether existing social indicator frameworks are valid and effective enough to address increasingly complex social issues. The authors argue that, despite some improvements, current social indicators fail to provide an effective framework and tool for measuring the progress of social welfare and also for developing or reforming social policy to cope with newly emerging social problems. While proposing a new social indicator framework based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development??s pressure-state-response (PSR) model, the paper argues that the new framework should be more than displaying static numbers but should use dynamic statistics revealing causes and effects and shedding light on social and policy changes.     

Modelling change in cognitive understanding with finite mixtures

Psychological theories often posit the existence of several different states. Individuals are viewed as belonging to one of the states at a given age, but with development pass to another state. A main problem in evaluating such theories is representing the transition from one state to another over age. A stochastic transition framework is proposed which should be useful in many different settings. The model is illustrated with data from a cognitive development task.     

Saddlepoint-Based Bootstrap Inference for Quadratic Estimating Equations

Abstract.  We propose an easy to implement method for making small sample parametric inference about the root of an estimating equation expressible as a quadratic form in normal random variables. It is based on saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the estimating equation whose unique root is a parameter's maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), while substituting conditional MLEs for the remaining (nuisance) parameters. Monotoncity of the estimating equation in its parameter argument enables us to relate these approximations to those for the estimator of interest. The proposed method is equivalent to a parametric bootstrap percentile approach where Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by saddlepoint approximation. It finds applications in many areas of statistics including, nonlinear regression, time series analysis, inference on ratios of regression parameters in linear models and calibration. We demonstrate the method in the context of some classical examples from nonlinear regression models and ratios of regression parameter problems. Simulation results for these show that the proposed method, apart from being generally easier to implement, yields confidence intervals with lengths and coverage probabilities that compare favourably with those obtained from several competing methods proposed in the literature over the past half-century.     

Contractors and their Psychological Contracts

It is commonly assumed that contractors are largely calculative, instrumental and self-interested in their relationship with organizations and interface with them accordingly (e.g. low corporate interest and emotional investment). This paper describes a survey involving 117 contractors (62 on 'permanent' agency contracts and 55 on 'temporary' agency contracts) and a comparable (age, job level/grade, years of work experience) group of 86 direct employees (on fixed-term contracts). The survey comprised measures of the psychological contract, of organizational identification, social (corporate) attraction, team spirit and intention to leave. The findings show that contractors are not inevitably 'emotionally' detached from their place of work, in some cases investing in it as much as direct company employees. While transactional (e.g. financial gain, instrumentality) exchange considerations were more salient among contractors than employees, this did not appear to preclude the development of a relational (e.g. corporate integration and long-term investment) contractual orientation. 'Team spirit' and 'organizational identification' predicted the development of relational contracts over and above contractual status. The findings and their management implications are discussed in terms of 'strategic partnership'.     

Detecting a changed segment in DNA sequences

Non-coding deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) can typically be modelled by a sequence of Bernoulli random variables by coding one base, e.g. T, as 1 and other bases as 0. If a segment of a sequence is functionally important, the probability of a 1 will be different in this changed segment from that in the surrounding DNA. It is important to be able to see whether such a segment occurs in a particular DNA sequence and to pin-point it so that a molecular biologist can investigate its possible function. Here we discuss methods for testing the occurrence of such a changed segment and how to estimate the end points of it. Maximum-likelihood-based methods are not very tractable and so a nonparametric method based on the approach of Pettitt has been developed. The problem and its solution are illustrated by a specific DNA example.     

Statistical analysis of a two-unit dependent repairable system

Maximum likelihood estimators are investigated a for lr-out-of 2:G repairable system when failures and repairs are statistically dependent. Under two censoring schemes Accelerated Life Testing Procedure (ALTP) is used to obtain the estimates. Information matrices are supplied and a special case when the failure and repair phenomenon are independent of each other is considered.