Why is the Divorce Rate Declining in Indonesia?

This article examines trends in marital dissolution in Indonesia. Analysis considers the impact of educational expansion, delayed marriage, urbanization, increasing employment before marriage, legislative change, and increased free choice in marriage on the decline in marital disruption. Trends such as delayed marriage and educational expansion account for about one third of the decline in marital dissolution. Moreover, factors associated with marital disruption are shifting in importance. In particular, age at marriage and marital duration are becoming less reliable predictors of marital stability, whereas education is becoming more important. We conclude that the shifting forces governing marital formation and dissolution in Indonesia have modified the linkages between the conjugal couple, broader kinship systems, and modes of economic support such that traditional patterns sustaining high levels of marital instability are no longer in effect.     

Assessing the structural heterogeneity of urban areas: an example from the Black Country (UK)

The increasing acknowledgement of the importance of urban habitats in the maintenance of biodiversity has brought with it a need to quantify this importance at a scale appropriate to the characteristic patch sizes encountered in urban areas. Taking a study area in the Black Country (UK) we used a spatially complete, rapid assessment method to evaluate habitat patches in terms of their internal structural heterogeneity. This method recognises the importance of both natural and anthropogenic processes in providing a diverse range of habitats and niches for both flora and fauna. It also recognises the key role of context in determining the ecological significance of each patch within the urban landscape.All habitats studied had a complex mix of both natural and artificial structural elements, where an element is a within-patch contributor to structural diversity, with each habitat type having a large range of element totals. Characteristic totals, reflecting the level of habitat structural diversity, were observed in some habitat types with residential areas having high values and industrial and commercial areas having low values. Certain structural elements were also associated with each habitat type allowing characteristic element assemblages to be derived. If structural diversity is linked with biodiversity, as seems to be the case in many (though not all) habitat types, then this unique method of viewing the urban landscape becomes a powerful tool for informing wildlife ecologists, nature conservationists, urban planners, environmental managers and landscape architects.     

Sequential Search and Selection Problem Under Uncertainty

This paper formulates and discusses a series of sequential decision problems of the following common structure: A decision alternative of multiple attributes‐that is, a job, an employee, or an investment alternative‐is to be selected within a certain fixed length of time. An unknown number of alternatives are presented sequentially, either deterministically or in a random manner. The decision maker can rank all the alternatives from best to worst without ties, and the decision to accept or reject an alternative is based solely on the relative ranks of those alternatives evaluated so far. The nonparametric sequential decision problem is first studied for a model involving a discrete time period and then generalized in terms of continuous time. Also considered is a variant of this problem involving a Bayesian estimation of (1) the uncertain probability of having an alternative at a given stage in the discrete‐time model and (2) the arrival rate of alternatives in the continuous‐time model. The optimal selection strategy that maximizes the probability of selecting the absolute best alternative is illustrated with the job search problem and the single‐machine job assignment problem.     

An Ecological Regional Analysis of South Carolina

This study of the counties of South Carolina introduces a limited purpose, modifiable technology that is designed to reproduce the rapid discovery strategy of the natural sciences. It uses factor analysis to identify types of communities and the threats they face, and evaluates their success in dealing with these by comparisons based on age-adjusted mortality rates. The factor analysis of mostly census indicators generated an Urbanization factor along with two measures of the interaction with the environment, Growth and Poverty. Growth was expected to predict mortality negatively while Poverty should predict positively. Regression analysis confirms both predictions but only for each race. That is, Growth predicted lower mortality, but only for African-Americans. Poverty predicted higher mortality, but only for whites. These and other puzzling findings are explored, illustrating the “rapid discovery” technology that is the central feature of this paper.     

Investigating the Readiness of Hospital Social Workers to Respond to Domestic and Family Violence

ABSTRACT

Domestic and family violence (DFV) is recognised as a health care priority. Women experiencing DFV use health services at a higher rate than the general population. Hospital social workers are an important component of a public hospital response to domestic and family violence but how prepared are they for this role? This research study explored the readiness of social workers in a Melbourne metropolitan hospital setting to respond to DFV. Results indicated that although the social workers had a knowledge base highly relevant for responding to DFV, many lacked specific knowledge of risk assessment, safety planning, legislative responsibilities, and referral pathways for support, including legal support. As a result, it was likely that they were not adequately responding, either by not recognising when they needed to, or with knowledge and confidence when they did. They also identified a range of organisational enablers, including policy, time, and safe conversation spaces.

IMPLICATIONS

• Hospital social workers have a central role to play in responding to domestic and family violence.

• Hospital social workers need to be better prepared for domestic and family violence responses.

• Social workers require ongoing training and organisational support including practice protocols and guidelines, and the provision of time and private, safe spaces for sensitive conversations to occur.

• Universities should ensure that the role of hospital social workers is considered within curriculum addressing the area of domestic and family violence (DFV).

     

Planning and analyzing clinical trials with competing risks: Recommendations for choosing appropriate statistical methodology

In the analysis of time‐to‐event data, competing risks occur when multiple event types are possible, and the occurrence of a competing event precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. In this situation, statistical methods that ignore competing risks can result in biased inference regarding the event of interest. We review the mechanisms that lead to bias and describe several statistical methods that have been proposed to avoid bias by formally accounting for competing risks in the analyses of the event of interest. Through simulation, we illustrate that Gray's test should be used in lieu of the logrank test for nonparametric hypothesis testing. We also compare the two most popular models for semiparametric modelling: the cause‐specific hazards (CSH) model and Fine‐Gray (F‐G) model. We explain how to interpret estimates obtained from each model and identify conditions under which the estimates of the hazard ratio and subhazard ratio differ numerically. Finally, we evaluate several model diagnostic methods with respect to their sensitivity to detect lack of fit when the CSH model holds, but the F‐G model is misspecified and vice versa. Our results illustrate that adequacy of model fit can strongly impact the validity of statistical inference. We recommend analysts incorporate a model diagnostic procedure and contingency to explore other appropriate models when designing trials in which competing risks are anticipated.     

The Diversity Imperative: The Effects of Local Economic Structure and Social Capital on Local Philanthropy

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Philanthropic endeavors are a form of institutionalized collective action that enhances a community’s capacity to...     

Self‐concept as a mechanism through which parental psychological control impairs empathy development from adolescence to emerging adulthood

We examined the relationship among perceived parental psychological control (PPC), self‐concept, and empathy, from adolescence to emerging adulthood. Child Development Project longitudinal data analyses indicate that, when adolescents notice PPC at age 13, they have poor self‐concept (less competence) at age 16, and they show less empathic concern (EC) toward others at age 24. The indirect effects of self‐concept at age 16 are significant for EC, but not for perspective taking (PT). Moreover, perceived PPC at age 13 does not directly predict their EC at age 24, but it does their PT at age 24, and these results were found regardless of the gender of the parents and adolescents. Our results shed light on poor self‐concept in adolescence as a mechanism by which PPC impairs healthy emotional development from adolescence to emerging adulthood.