全球经济衰退与国际格局的调整

全球经济衰退的发生与国际经济活力的恢复,都与国际政治格局存在着密不可分的关系.国际政治中的权力因素、制度因素和观念因素在经济危机条件下调整的力度,对国际秩序未来的走向具有极大的影响.冷战后形成的国际格局在严重的经济衰退中依然保持了较高的稳定性,但也存在着变革的需要.中国必须对这一问题有清晰的认识,在此基础上才能确定自身需要优先考虑的国际政治目标.     

基于网络视角的中小企业国际化研究方法评述与展望

近年来中小企业逐渐成为国际化的一支生力军,对于中小企业国际化的研究已成为企业国际化领域重要的研究课题。不同于大型跨国企业,中小企业较多地受制于自身资源和规模的限制,因此企业网络在中小企业国际化过程中尤其发挥着重大作用,越来越多的学者开始从网络视角研究中小企业的国际化问题。本研究就“基于网络视角的中小企业国际化问题”相关文献为研究对象,对其研究方法进行了系统阐述,以期对进一步研究商业网络对中小企业国际化的影响提供借鉴和指导。     

论扣押物的规范化管理

目前,我国刑事扣押物品管理上存在账目不清,无专门部门、专门人员及专门场所进行保管。这一现象是由于管理制度和管理机构以及监督制约机制不健全造成的。为使扣押物实现规范管理,应在现行法框架下通过司法解释以及内部管理制度与监督机制的完善,使扣押物品的管理规范化。     

幽默言语行为的语用策略及在交际中的影响

本文论述话语幽默是人类交际活动巾重要的语言现象,它既是人们行使其他青外之力的有效手段,又有助于人们更好地实现交际目的：     

高校社团对基层团组织的功能替代

在新时期里,高校基层团组织的传统工作模式受到了前所未有的挑战,其功能也呈现出明显弱化的迹象;而学生社团则在高校中蓬勃发展,甚至对团组织起到了某种程度上的“功能替代”作用。一种功能互补的趋势正在悄然形成中。     

比较视野的中国职务发明专利授权的分类统计与政策含义

职务发明专利授权意味着企事业单位或机关团体作为专利权人取得其雇员所发明技术的专利权。职务发明专利授权量可反映一个国家企事业单位或机关团体在其发明专利申请受理国运用专利制度获取技术竞争力的水平。根据世界知识产权组织的《国际专利分类号与技术领域对照表》,对我国1986—2006年发明专利授权按技术领域进行分类统计;从静态和动态比较的角度,对我国国内和国外发明专利授权格局及其演变进行分析;并对上述分析结果的公共政策含义进行探讨。     

危机事件中的网络视频传播与话语分析

随着网络视频的兴起,网络传播进入视频时代：对央视网和优酷网“甲型H1N1流感”议题的网络视频进行对比研究发现,在视频节目来源、话语平台的影响力和话语影响力以及话语呈现和对话机制方面,网络视频官方话语与民间话语的呈现都存在显著差异和一定规律。更为重要的是,网络视频传播在危机事件中的作用日益显著。     

Approximating the risk score for disease diagnosis using MARS

In disease screening and diagnosis, often multiple markers are measured and combined to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. McIntosh and Pepe [Combining several screening tests: optimality of the risk score, Biometrics 58 (2002), pp. 657–664] showed that the risk score, defined as the probability of disease conditional on multiple markers, is the optimal function for classification based on the Neyman–Pearson lemma. They proposed a two-step procedure to approximate the risk score. However, the resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is only defined in a subrange (L, h) of false-positive rates in (0,1) and the determination of the lower limit L needs extra prior information. In practice, most diagnostic tests are not perfect, and it is usually rare that a single marker is uniformly better than the other tests. Using simulation, I show that multivariate adaptive regression spline is a useful tool to approximate the risk score when combining multiple markers, especially when ROC curves from multiple tests cross. The resulting ROC is defined in the whole range of (0,1) and is easy to implement and has intuitive interpretation. The sample code of the application is shown in the appendix.     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

中国制造业集聚：度量与显著性检验 ——基于集聚测量新方法

 根据集聚分布的自身特点,本文提出了可以进行显著性检验的普适性产业集聚指数,并对我国28制造业1994年的860个样本和2004年800个样本进行测量和检验,我们的计算结果表明,中国制造业的集聚强度总体上呈上升趋势,同时具有集聚和扩散双重现象。