Multistate models in health insurance

We illustrate how multistate Markov and semi-Markov models can be used for the actuarial modeling of health insurance policies, focusing on health insurances that are pursued on a similar technical basis to that of life insurance. In the first part, we give an overview of the basic modeling frameworks that are commonly used and explain the calculation of prospective reserves and net premiums. In the second part, we discuss the biometric insurance risk, focusing on the calculation of implicit safety margins. We present new results on implicit margins in the semi-Markov model and on biometric estimation risk in the Markov model, and we explain why there is a need for future research concerning the systematic biometric risk.     

Exploring the Role of Being Out on a Queer Person's Self-Compassion

Recent changes in societal attitudes toward lesbian, gay, and bisexual identities have resulted in more people openly identifying with sexual minority status. Due to research on the effects of denying one's sexual orientation and the negative effects of this, many have advocated for more openness in queer sexual orientation. Compassion means connecting to the suffering of others not by avoiding their pain but instead by identifying it so that the feeling of kindness may emerge. Self-compassion, therefore, involves being touched by and open to one's own suffering, not avoiding or disconnecting from it, generating the desire to alleviate one's suffering and to heal oneself with kindness. The purpose of the research is to understand the impact that being out has on a queer person's self-compassion. The Self-Compassion Scale (SCS) is a 26-item, 5-point Likert measure, where a higher score equated to higher self-compassion and looked at how a person showed loving kindness to one's self through the six dimensions of self-compassion. The six dimensions of self-compassion are mindfulness, over-identification, self-kindness, self-judgment, common humanity, and isolation. Results showed that those who are totally out have a higher sense of self-compassion. Implications for practitioners working with the queer population are also discussed.     

Parental leave regulations, mothers’ labor force attachment and fathers’ childcare involvement: evidence from a natural experiment

In 2007, Germany implemented a generous parental leave regulation in order to make parenthood more attractive and more compatible with a working career, especially for mothers. We evaluate the reform using a natural experiment that compares outcomes of parents with children born shortly after and before the coming into effect of the law, and find a significant decrease in mothers’ employment probability during the 12 months after giving birth, and an increase in mothers’ employment probability after the transfer expires. The implementation of two daddy months is currently not reflected in significant changes in fathers’ time devoted to childcare.     

Marriage form and fertility in rural China: an investigation in three counties

Using data from two surveys in three counties where the prevalence of uxorilocal marriage differs greatly, this paper analyzes impact of marriage form, individual, family, and social factors on fertility and its regional differences. The results show that, under the Chinese patrilineal joint family system, uxorilocal marriage does not universally increase fertility, which is likely to be determined by other factors. It is further found that fertility differs greatly in the three regions, and is significantly lower in regions where uxorilocal marriage is common than in regions where virilocal marriage is dominant. Women’s marriage cohort, age at first marriage, and number of sisters all have significant effects on fertility. These findings address the process and consequences of change in rural family and marriage customs during the current demographic and social transition.     

20世纪中国"失踪女性"数量的估计

20世纪80年代以来,中国持续升高的人口出生性别比和历史上长期存在的女孩死亡水平偏高导致失踪女性现象严重,使人口性别结构失衡.文章使用全国5次人口普查数据,在对普查数据修正的基础上,分时期估计了1900～2000年中国失踪女性的数量和比例,研究各时期失踪女性的特征和主要原因,并讨论了估计结果与其他学者研究结果的不同之处及其原因.     

农户的非农参与和农业劳动供给研究——来自中国西部山区的证据

对不完全市场下的农业劳动供给研究,普遍采用不可分性或禀赋依赖假设,即农户的生产决策受消费相关因素的影响,而不是基于利润最大化目标。这种假设只对缺乏非农兼业或市场参与机会的农户成立,故应在决策研究中考虑农户受市场约束的异质性。利用内生选择的切换模型和陕西周至山区的农户调查数据,对农户的非农参与及农业劳动供给决策进行的实证研究表明：金融可及性和人力资本的分布特征决定了农户非农活动的参与及类型,反映了不完全市场对农户的约束状况,进而决定了农业劳动供给决策的影响机制。纯农户的农业劳动供给行为,除了受农户的生计资本影响外,还受其家庭结构等相关因素的影响。     

Twofold optimality of the relative utilitarian bargaining solution

Given a bargaining problem, the relative utilitarian (RU) solution maximizes the sum total of the bargainer’s utilities, after having first renormalized each utility function to range from zero to one. We show that RU is “optimal” in two very different senses. First, RU is the maximal element (over the set of all bargaining solutions) under any partial ordering which satisfies certain axioms of fairness and consistency; this result is closely analogous to the result of Segal (J Polit Econ 108(3):569–589, 2000). Second, RU offers each person the maximum expected utility amongst all rescaling-invariant solutions, when it is applied to a random sequence of future bargaining problems generated using a certain class of distributions; this is recalls the results of Harsanyi (J Polit Econ 61:434–435, 1953) and Karni (Econometrica 66(6):1405–1415, 1998).