Bayesian analysis of panel data using an MTAR model

Bayesian analysis of panel data using a class of momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) models is considered. Posterior estimation of parameters of the MTAR models is done by using a simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Selection of appropriate differenced variables, test for asymmetry and unit roots are recast as model selections and a simple way of computing posterior probabilities of the candidate models is proposed. The proposed method is applied to the yearly unemployment rates of 51 US states and the results show strong evidence of stationarity and asymmetry.     

Double unit root tests for cross-sectionally dependent panel data

This paper proposes various double unit root tests for cross-sectionally dependent panel data. The cross-sectional correlation is handled by the projection method [P.C.B. Phillips and D. Sul, Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence, Econom. J. 6 (2003), pp. 217–259; H.R. Moon and B. Perron, Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors, J. Econom. 122 (2004), pp. 81–126] or the subtraction method [J. Bai and S. Ng, A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration, Econometrica 72 (2004), pp. 1127–1177]. Pooling or averaging is applied to combine results from different panel units. Also, to estimate autoregressive parameters the ordinary least squares estimation [D.P. Hasza and W.A. Fuller, Estimation for autoregressive processes with unit roots, Ann. Stat. 7 (1979), pp. 1106–1120] or the symmetric estimation [D.L. Sen and D.A. Dickey, Symmetric test for second differencing in univariate time series, J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 5 (1987), pp. 463–473] are used, and to adjust mean functions the ordinary mean adjustment or the recursive mean adjustment are used. Combinations of different methods in defactoring to eliminate the cross-sectional dependency, integrating results from panel units, estimating the parameters, and adjusting mean functions yields various available tests for double unit roots in panel data. Simple asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistics are derived, which can be used to find critical values of the test statistics.

We perform a Monte Carlo experiment to compare the performance of these tests and to suggest optimal tests for a given panel data. Application of the proposed tests to a real data, the yearly export panel data sets of several Latin–American countries for the past 50 years, illustrates the usefulness of the proposed tests for panel data, in that they reveal stronger evidence of double unit roots than the componentwise double unit root tests of Hasza and Fuller [Estimation for autoregressive processes with unit roots, Ann. Stat. 7 (1979), pp. 1106–1120] or Sen and Dickey [Symmetric test for second differencing in univariate time series, J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 5 (1987), pp. 463–473].     

Bayesian analysis of paired survival data using a bivariate exponential distribution

We consider a Bayesian analysis method of paired survival data using a bivariate exponential model proposed by Moran (1967, Biometrika 54:385–394). Important features of Moran’s model include that the marginal distributions are exponential and the range of the correlation coefficient is between 0 and 1. These contrast with the popular exponential model with gamma frailty. Despite these nice properties, statistical analysis with Moran’s model has been hampered by lack of a closed form likelihood function. In this paper, we introduce a latent variable to circumvent the difficulty in the Bayesian computation. We also consider a model checking procedure using the predictive Bayesian P-value.     

Inter-organizational information systems visibility in buyer–supplier relationships: The case of telecommunication equipment component manufacturing industry

The concept and operation of supply chain (SC) visibility remain underexplored questions in supply chain management, as is the question of the facilitating role of inter-organizational information systems (IOIS) in achieving SC visibility. This paper seeks to elaborate on the novel concept of IOIS visibility and to explore the antecedents and consequences of IOIS visibility. Investigating SC cooperation from the perspectives of both partners (buyers and suppliers) is important, especially when channel partners depend on each other and when asymmetries in IOIS visibility can exist.     

Homelessness and Children's Use of Mental Health Services: A Population-Based Study

This study examined whether children who become homeless differ from other low-income children in their mental health service use before and after their first homeless episode, and to what extent homelessness is associated with an increased likelihood of mental health service use. Differences between children with and without new onset of sheltered homelessness in the use of mental health services emerged following homelessness and widened over time. Sheltered homelessness and foster care placement history were associated with increased odds of receiving inpatient and ambulatory mental health services. Findings underscore the importance of collaborations between homeless assistance, foster care, and mental healthcare in efforts to mitigate family homelessness and collateral needs among homeless children.     

Bending but Not Breaking?: Foreign Investor Pressure and Dividend Payouts by Japanese Firms

This article examines the global diffusion of shareholder‐oriented governance practices, using the case of dividend payouts by Japanese firms. While Japanese firms previously retained profits for rainy days or new ventures, their dividend payouts began to increase in the 1990s, rapidly catching up with the levels prevailing in the United States. Following prior research, we focus on the role of foreign investors in this process but provide a more nuanced account of their influence, using panel data on 2,036 publicly traded Japanese firms from 1990 to 2005. First, we show that pressure from foreign investors increased dividends by Japanese firms not only directly but also indirectly, by extending the cognitive boundaries of organizational fields of Japanese firms beyond their local peers and toward their global competitors. Second, we show that although Japanese firms that remained deeply embedded in the traditional, stakeholder‐oriented governance system resisted shareholder‐oriented governance practices, even such firms yielded under pressure from both foreign and domestic investors. We conclude with theoretical implications of our findings for the literature on the global diffusion of shareholder value and its broader political and social consequences.     

A Moderated Mediation Model of Planned Happenstance Skills,Career Engagement,Career Decision Self‐Efficacy,and Career Decision Certainty

This study examined how college students’ levels of planned happenstance skills influenced the relationships among career engagement, career decision self‐efficacy, and career decision certainty. Moderated mediation analysis was used with a sample of 217 Korean undergraduate students. The results indicated that career decision self‐efficacy mediated the relationship between career engagement and career decision certainty. Moreover, the positive indirect effect of career engagement on career decision through career decision self‐efficacy was strengthened as the level of planned happenstance skills increased. In conclusion, college students’ career engagement strengthens their career decision certainty via career decision self‐efficacy when they have enough planned happenstance skills to discover unexpected career opportunities.     

Construction and Initial Validation of the Planned Happenstance Career Inventory

This study was conducted to develop and initially evaluate the psychometric properties of the Planned Happenstance Career Inventory (PHCI), which aims to assess skill in using chance events to develop career opportunities. After item generation and exploratory factor analysis, 130 original items were reduced to 25 items across 5 factors (5 items for each corresponding factor). Multigroup confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the validity of this 5‐factor structure, and the goodness of fit showed an adequate fit to the observed data for both women and men. Results showed that PHCI subscales correlated moderately and in expected directions with career preparation, career decision‐making self‐efficacy, and career stress. These findings suggest that the PHCI, which assesses 5 dimensions of career‐related planned happenstance skill, shows promise as a useful tool for facilitating understanding of the influence of chance events on career choice behavior.     

Propaganda or public relations campaign? International communication on the war against Iraq

Cross-cultural survey on the war against Iraq from different cultures may help to assess whether the public relations war has succeeded or failed. Overall the public of the U.S. and the U.K. formed similar evaluations of the war; whereas South Korean opinion was lay on the opposite side of the continuum. The present study suggests that public relations campaigns administered by the U.S. government did not generate favorable opinions in countries other than the U.S.     

AGAPE-ET: A Methodology for Human Error Analysis of Emergency Tasks

This article introduces a human error analysis or human reliability analysis methodology, AGAPE-ET (A Guidance And Procedure for Human Error Analysis for Emergency Tasks), for analyzing emergency tasks in nuclear power plants. The AGAPE-ET method is based on a simplified cognitive model and a set of performance-influencing factors (PIFs). At each cognitive function, error-causing factors (ECF) or error-likely situations have been identified considering the characteristics of the performance of each cognitive function and the influencing mechanism of the PIFs on the cognitive function. Then, a human error analysis procedure based on the error analysis factors is organized to cue or guide the analyst in conducting the human error analysis. The method can be characterized by the structured identification of weak points of the task required to be performed and by the efficient analysis process such that the analyst has only to carry out the analysis with the necessary cognitive functions. Through the application, AGAPE-ET showed its usefulness, which effectively identifies the vulnerabilities with respect to cognitive performance as well as task execution, and that helps the analyst directly draw specific error reduction measures through the analysis.