Assessments of provincial mortality in China’s 2010 population census based on the Developing Countries Mortality Database model life table

Journal of Population Research - The provincial mortality data of China’s 2010 population census sustains the study of regional mortality disparities, but the data suffer from the...     

Analysis of dependently truncated data in Cox framework

Truncation is a known feature of bone marrow transplant (BMT) registry data, for which the survival time of a leukemia patient is left truncated by the waiting time to transplant. It was recently noted that a longer waiting time was linked to poorer survival. A straightforward solution is a Cox model on the survival time with the waiting time as both truncation variable and covariate. The Cox model should also include other recognized risk factors as covariates. In this article, we focus on estimating the distribution function of waiting time and the probability of selection under the aforementioned Cox model.     

A discrete-time risk model with Poisson ARCH claim-number process

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following an integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process with Poisson deviates. In this model, the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the impact of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on the ruin probability.     

红色文化增进铸牢中华民族共同体意识的多维向度解析

红色文化是中国革命建设征程的历史凝结,补钙壮骨,通今溯源,与中华民族共同体意识有着严密的耦合逻辑。在政治上,红色文化有利于坚定中国共产党的领导,明晰铸牢中华民族共同体意识的政治前提;在经济上,红色文化彰显社会主义市场经济的民族互惠指向,夯实铸牢中华民族共同体意识的经济基础;在文化上,红色文化标注社会主义先进文化建设的中国底色,聚合中华民族共同体建设的文化动力;在社会上,红色文化促进各民族交往交流交融,提升铸牢中华民族共同体意识的社会认知;在生态上,红色文化有助于建立人与自然交响协奏的生命共同体,筑牢中华民族共同家园的生态底线。     

“旧惯温存”——日据冲绳初期统治方式研究

日本强行吞并琉球,拉开了其近代领土扩张的序幕。日本对琉球吞并的非法性,不仅体现在"琉球处分"的过程中,更体现于其后对冲绳当地人民的残酷剥削和压迫上。从政治史的维度考察日本占领冲绳后在当地的施政情况,能更深层地了解日本的殖民统治。日本统治者为了使对冲绳的掠夺不受本国法律束缚,利用"旧惯温存"的统治手段,通过保留琉球王国时期的封建积习以延缓当地的近代化进程。"旧惯温存"暴露了日本在冲绳推行殖民统治的本质所在。日本在冲绳的殖民统治表明,其所谓的"国民统一",正是日本对外侵略的第一步。     

Agent‐Based Recovery Model for Seismic Resilience Evaluation of Electrified Communities

In this article, an agent‐based framework to quantify the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system (EPSS) and the community it serves is presented. Within the framework, the loss and restoration of the EPSS power generation and delivery capacity and of the power demand from the served community are used to assess the electric power deficit during the damage absorption and recovery processes. Damage to the components of the EPSS and of the community‐built environment is evaluated using the seismic fragility functions. The restoration of the community electric power demand is evaluated using the seismic recovery functions. However, the postearthquake EPSS recovery process is modeled using an agent‐based model with two agents, the EPSS Operator and the Community Administrator. The resilience of the EPSS–community system is quantified using direct, EPSS‐related, societal, and community‐related indicators. Parametric studies are carried out to quantify the influence of different seismic hazard scenarios, agent characteristics, and power dispatch strategies on the EPSS–community seismic resilience. The use of the agent‐based modeling framework enabled a rational formulation of the postearthquake recovery phase and highlighted the interaction between the EPSS and the community in the recovery process not quantified in resilience models developed to date. Furthermore, it shows that the resilience of different community sectors can be enhanced by different power dispatch strategies. The proposed agent‐based EPSS–community system resilience quantification framework can be used to develop better community and infrastructure system risk governance policies.     

考虑异质性行为的灾后应急物资动态调度优化

在以人道主义为本的应急救援活动中，不可忽视被救灾民和施救决策者们异质性行为的影响。一方面，将各灾民因救援物资需求未被及时满足而呈现的差异化心理痛苦度量成经济损失，并纳入应急救援调度的社会成本这一决策目标中；另一方面，在灾后物资调度决策中，关注具有异质性偏好的各应急决策者所展现出的不同救援态度。结合面向联合机会约束规划的动态供需平衡限制，最终构建一个考虑灾民和决策者们异质性行为的多阶段灾后救援物资分配和应急路径优化模型。采用2008年汶川地震为案例背景，应用遗传算法对模型求解和参数分析，将仿真结果与不考虑异质性行为的传统救援调度方案进行比较，得出一些结论为构建高效的应急救援体系提供有益参考。     

论元代诗人刘诜的五言古诗

元代江西诗人刘诜的五言古诗成就斐然,诗中多涉及现实题材与日常生活,表现出庐陵诗人的求实性格和讲求真性情的特点。刘诜诗中对时事民生的关注,笔法古雅沉劲。而对日常生活的书写,则多体现出乐观自适的生活态度,又呈现出自然清和的诗歌风格。     

基于真实项目的本土化外事口译人才培养模式探究——以汤显祖戏剧节暨国际戏剧交流月活动为例

全球化进程加快,欠发达地区日益增长的对外交流的需求与本地高素质口译人才短缺的矛盾日益突出。围绕“本土化外事口译人才的培养”这一议题,以功能主义目的论和建构主义理论为指导,充分结合地方实际,以真实的口译项目为依托,通过实践探索,构建出一套“三阶段式”本土化外事口译人才培养模式,以期为欠发达地区本土化外事口译人才培养问题提供借鉴。