Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

An empirical examination of cost-adjusting in outpatient clinics

This paper presents an empirical methodology for examining cost-adjusting in relation to multiple-output health care providers. The methodology is subsequently implemented using a sample of California outpatient clinics. The empirical evidence is that these clinics do cost-adjust; that is, the clinics respond to low Medicare reimbursement by using lower quality to control the marginal costs of those patient groups not insured under a government-sponsored plan. In addition, clinics do not cost-adjust with respect to Medi-Cal patients, implying that various government reimbursement systems have different effects on a provider’s cost-adjusting behavior.     

A non-profit approach to addressing the effects of urbanization in the Lake Pontchartrain Basin, Louisiana

The Lake Pontchartrain Basin in southeast Louisiana is an estuarine watershed encompassing New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and wetlands that are an integral part of Louisiana's unique culture. In recent decades rapid growth and poorly planned development have resulted in a decrease in water quality and habitat loss, especially in St. Tammany Parish on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain. In 1989, the Lake Pontchartrain Basin Foundation (LPBF), an environmental, non-profit organization, was formed to address and rectify environmental issues in the Basin. LPBF accomplishes its mission through programs addressing water quality, habitat protection, geographic information science, public access, and education.LPBF used the recent, rapid development occurring in St. Tammany Parish as a case study to examine the relationship between land use, water quality, and development in the Basin by investigating habitat change/urbanization, development in flood plains, and water quality. Through the integration of LPBF programs, it was found that urbanization is having a devastating impact on the parish's natural habitats and severely degrading water quality. Using these results, LPBF is educating Basin citizens on the protection of their habitats and water quality to insure that these resources may be available for future generations.     

Spaces of Participation in Pre‐School: Arenas for Establishing Power Orders?

This article reports an ethnographic study of pre‐school children's social knowledge domains. Results show how the children's shared knowledge concerning social status and social differentiation in the group was strengthened and confirmed during a traditional teacher‐led ring game, where they were supposed to choose a friend. We suggest that from the perspective of the children, the game situation may be understood as, at the same time, a space of participation and an arena for establishing the power order. From the perspective of the teacher, pedagogical intentions may be challenged as they encounter and are mediated and interpreted by children's peer‐cultures.     

代谢综合征基础与临床系列研究——GRGDSP/7E3对动脉粥样硬化内皮细胞MMPs的mRNA表达的影响

目的了解GRGDSP/7E3对基质金属蛋白酶（MMP-2,MMP-9）mRNA表达的影响。方法体外培养人脐静脉内皮细胞,分别用酶谱法和逆转录聚合酶链式反应（RT-PCR）检测MMP-2,MMP-9活性和mRNA表达。待细胞融合成单层后,分别加入无血清培养基、静息期血小板、活化后血小板及interleukin-1β（IL-1β）,共同培养60min后,洗去血小板,内皮细胞继续培养6h。上清液及细胞分别用于酶谱法检测MMP-2和MMP-9活性,以及RT-PCR分析mRNA表达。结果内皮细胞与活化血小板共同培养后,酶谱法显示：与对照组相比,未活化的血小板轻微诱导MMP-2和MMP-9分泌,而活化状态的血小板能显著诱导这二者的分泌,与IL-1β的作用相当;而且还可以见到62kDaMMP-2活化形式。加入阻断剂GRGDSP以及GPⅡb/Ⅲa单克隆抗体（7E3）作用后检测发现,MMP-2和MMP-9分泌减少。与活化血小板共同培养后的内皮细胞表面表达uPAR和MT1-MMP以及上清液中MMP-2的mRNA与对照组相比明显增高,而静息状态的血小板作用不显著。加入GRGDSP或7E3后,mR-NA的表达降低。结论①活化状态的血小板与IL-1β的作用相当,能显著诱导MMP-2和MMP-9分泌;能明显增高内皮细胞（EC）-uPAR和MT1-MMP及上清液中MMP-2mRNA的表达;②GPⅡb/Ⅲa阻断剂可能抑制血小板在不稳定斑块部位聚集、粘附等一系列炎症反应。     

Trait Expressiveness and Marital Satisfaction: The Role of Idealization Processes

This study examined the processes that underlie the association between trait expressiveness and marital satisfaction. A total of 168 newlywed couples participated in a four‐wave, 13‐year longitudinal study of marriage. Cross‐sectional and longitudinal path analyses suggested that expressiveness promotes satisfaction by leading spouses to engage in affectionate behavior and by leading them to idealize their partner. Expressive people formed idealized images of their partner because they brought out the best in their partner's behavior and because they interpreted their partner's behavior in a favorable light. The study extends previous research by showing that the benefits of trait expressiveness extend into the second decade of marriage and by providing a plausible explanation of the connections between trait expressiveness and marital satisfaction.     

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for the Evaluation of a Website

Consider a website and the surfers visiting its pages. A typical issue of interest, for example while monitoring an advertising campaign, concerns whether a specific page has been designed successfully, i.e. is able to attract surfers or address them to other pages within the site. We assume that the surfing behaviour is fully described by the transition probabilities from one page to another, so that a clickstream (sequence of consecutively visited pages) can be viewed as a finite-state-space Markov chain. We then implement a variety of hierarchical prior distributions on the multivariate logits of the transition probabilities and define, for each page, a content effect and a link effect. The former measures the attractiveness of the page due to its contents, while the latter signals its ability to suggest further interesting links within the site. Moreover, we define an additional effect, representing overall page success, which incorporates both effects previously described. Using WinBUGS, we provide estimates and credible intervals for each of the above effects and rank pages accordingly.     

Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

重估现代女作家的出现——以新文学期刊(1917-1925)中的女作者创作为视点

"五四"新文化运动中,进入学堂学习的女学生迅速成为了新文学杂志的重要作者,在女作家成长的过程中,新文学期刊及其主办者、编辑者的帮助和扶持起了十分重要的作用。女作者们借助现代出版的平台走向社会,走向读者,以集体的方式浮出历史地表,成为中国现代文学史上的第一代女作家。