The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

Depressive Symptoms,Acute Alcohol Intoxication,and Risk Rationale Effects on Men’s Condom Use Resistance

This study examined the role of depressive symptoms, acute intoxication, and risk rationale in men’s use of condom use resistance (CUR) tactics in an experimental study. Participants included 313 heterosexual male, nonproblem drinkers, ages 21 to 30. Participants were randomized to one of four beverage conditions: no alcohol, placebo, low (.04%) alcohol dose, or high (.08%) alcohol dose. They read an eroticized scenario depicting a consensual sexual encounter with a female partner who requested a condom to prevent either pregnancy or sexually transmitted infections (STIs) (risk rationale) and then indicated their intentions to use 10 different CUR tactics. Hypotheses related to the pharmacological, dosage, and expectancy effects of alcohol were tested in a generalized linear model. In intoxicated (.04% and .08%) men who were given a pregnancy risk rationale, depressive symptoms were associated with stronger intentions to use CUR tactics than in sober (control and placebo) men. Men who received a high alcohol dose (.08%) and who were given a pregnancy risk rationale reported higher intentions to use CUR tactics than those who received a lower alcohol dose (.04%). Findings suggest that the pharmacological effects of alcohol on men’s likelihood to resist condoms vary by the saliency of the risk rationale and mood-related variables.     

At 10–12 Months,Pointing Gesture Handedness Predicts the Size of Receptive Vocabularies

The close association between language and gesture has been widely studied (McNeill, Psychological Review, 92, 1985, 350). It remains unclear, however, when and how this relationship originates ontogenetically. This study investigated the relationship between vocabulary development and pointing handedness in 10‐ to 12‐month‐old infants. The study used cross‐sectional data from 16 infants. Infants took part in a pointing elicitation task and a grasping task to assess their pointing and grasping handedness. Further, parents filled out the Oxford Communicative Development Inventory (Hamilton, Plunkett, & Schafer, Journal of Child Language, 27, 2000, 689) to assess infants’ receptive and productive vocabularies. The result showed a positive, significant correlation between receptive vocabulary development and right‐handed pointing. This relationship was not due to age or to vocalizations, which have not been ruled out by previous studies. Possible mechanisms behind this codevelopment are discussed.     

Working Adults and Personal Business Ethics in South East Asia: a Comparative Study in Thailand and Vietnam

Global leaders and managers have been facing new challenges in the twenty-first century since globalization has created a much more integrated and borderless business environment. One of the key issues that they constantly deal with is business ethics. The global economy has made ethical issues become more complex and challenging. Businesses nowadays face urgent demands to act ethically and responsibly. In order for global leaders and managers to manage such a cultural diverse and complex workforce, they must have the ability to understand these complex issues and act ethically. They also need to possess adequate leadership skills to lead an ethical organization in a multinational environment. Thus, understanding and recognizing the cultural differences as well as the ethical standards of people in different countries are critical to the success of global leaders and managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the perception of working professionals on business ethics in the two high-context cultures in South East Asia: Thailand and Vietnam. Using the Univariate Analysis of Variance method and adopting the widely-used Clark and Clark’s Personal Business Ethics Scores (PBES) measure, this study will compare the level of ethical maturity of the respondents based on a variety of variables including gender, business law course taken, code of conduct, ethics training, and government work experience. The authors will provide a thorough literature review on business ethics as well as the current ethical issues, i.e., bribery and corruption, in the two countries, together with practical suggestions and implications for educators, managers, and employees.     

信贷歧视、青年创业群体与互保信贷模式

通过构建一个基于互保制度不存在情况下的银行信贷选择的理论模型,揭露银行对于青年创业者的信贷偏向.进而建立一个基于随机组合情况下的互保信贷模型,发现随机组合的互保机制反而不如普通信贷模式.运用此理论模型重点分析欺诈不存在和存在的互保信贷机制,得出如下的结论:创业者欺诈意愿不存在的情况下,银行给优质小组和混合小组的借贷成本应该让他们项目的经济利润近似于零,违约连带还款额接近投资项目的总收益.创业者欺诈意愿存在的情况下,在具有完善的合作约束和激励约束的前提下,银行应该对任一创业群体互保小组一视同仁,给予相同的贷款利率.同时,一旦小组成员违约,银行对承担责任的创业者抽贷行为不应该出于惩罚目的.     

Backward capacity-filtering for electronics Fabs

In electronics Fabs such as semiconductor Fabs and liquid crystal display (LCD) Fabs, which are capital-intensive, finite-capacity planning is critical to achieving full-capacity production and on-time production. However, existing finite-capacity planning methods do not adequately reflect the actual capacity profiles of an electronics Fab. In this paper, we propose a new Fab-level capacity-filtering procedure to generate finite-capacity plan: a backward capacity-filtering procedure for generating finite-capacity release plan. When developing the Fab-level filtering procedures, we use stage-level capacity-filtering algorithms as a key building block. In this study, we enhance the previous capacity-filtering algorithms proposed by one of the authors in order to facilitate the practical requirements of electronics Fabs. We apply the proposed capacity-filtering method to a modern LCD–TFT Fab in Korea. Performance analyses demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to existing methods.     

Utilizing Bayesian predictive power in clinical trial design

The Bayesian paradigm provides an ideal platform to update uncertainties and carry them over into the future in the presence of data. Bayesian predictive power (BPP) reflects our belief in the eventual success of a clinical trial to meet its goals. In this paper we derive mathematical expressions for the most common types of outcomes, to make the BPP accessible to practitioners, facilitate fast computations in adaptive trial design simulations that use interim futility monitoring, and propose an organized BPP-based phase II-to-phase III design framework.     

Efficient heterogeneous sampling for stochastic simulation with an illustration in health care applications

In modeling disease transmission, contacts are assumed to have different infection rates. A proper simulation must model the heterogeneity in the transmission rates. In this article, we present a computationally efficient algorithm that can be applied to a population with heterogeneous transmission rates. We conducted a simulation study to show that the algorithm is more efficient than other algorithms for sampling the disease transmission in a subset of the heterogeneous population. We use a valid stochastic model of pandemic influenza to illustrate the algorithm and to estimate the overall infection attack rates of influenza A (H1N1) in a Canadian city.     

Modeling the Adenoma and Serrated Pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA)

Several colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models have been developed describing the progression of adenomas to CRC. Currently, there is increasing evidence that serrated lesions can also develop into CRC. It is not clear whether screening tests have the same test characteristics for serrated lesions as for adenomas, but lower sensitivities have been suggested. Models that ignore this type of colorectal lesions may provide overly optimistic predictions of the screen‐induced reduction in CRC incidence. To address this issue, we have developed the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model that includes the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and the serrated pathway to CRC as well as characteristics of colorectal lesions. The model structure and the calibration procedure are described in detail. Calibration resulted in 19 parameter sets for the adenoma‐carcinoma pathway and 13 for the serrated pathway that match the age‐ and sex‐specific adenoma and serrated lesion prevalence in the COlonoscopy versus COlonography Screening (COCOS) trial, Dutch CRC incidence and mortality rates, and a number of other intermediate outcomes concerning characteristics of colorectal lesions. As an example, we simulated outcomes for a biennial fecal immunochemical test screening program and a hypothetical one‐time colonoscopy screening program. Inclusion of the serrated pathway influenced the predicted effectiveness of screening when serrated lesions are associated with lower screening test sensitivity or when they are not removed. To our knowledge, this is the first model that explicitly includes the serrated pathway and characteristics of colorectal lesions. It is suitable for the evaluation of the (cost)effectiveness of potential screening strategies for CRC.