文化产业可持续发展指标体系的探讨

文化产业的可持续发展有"发展度"、"协调度"、"持续度"三个"基本维度"。据此,可以设计这三个"基本维度"作为一级评价指标或子系统,各一级评价指标的下层可再设立若干个二级评价指标。文化产业可持续发展指标体系的建立,可为政府把握文化产业发展现状,对文化产业发展进行及时的分析和监测,制定符合市场规律和文化发展规律的政策措施,引导文化产业的可持续发展,具有重要的参考作用和实用价值。     

民族互嵌式社区治理共同体的系统审视与建构路径——以云南省洱源县郑家庄为考察中心

社会治理共同体视域下推进我国民族互嵌式社区治理共同体建设,既是促进各民族相互嵌入的基本着力点,也是落实民族工作“重在基层”的重要体现。本文通过对郑家庄典型社区进行调查研究,将民族互嵌式社区的系统建构与社会治理共同体建设相结合、相融通,见微知著,研究和探讨多民族社区治理的普遍规律,在共同体叙事中探寻我国民族互嵌式社区治理共同体建构的内在机理与框架体系。郑家庄通过系统推进“居住互嵌、组织互嵌、经济互嵌、文化互嵌与心理互嵌”,探索建构民族互嵌式社区生活共同体、组织共同体、经济共同体、文化共同体与情感共同体,为多民族社区实现“建设人人有责、人人尽责、人人享有的社会治理共同体”目标提供了实践样本。     

Bayesian model comparison for compartmental models with applications in positron emission tomography

We develop strategies for Bayesian modelling as well as model comparison, averaging and selection for compartmental models with particular emphasis on those that occur in the analysis of positron emission tomography (PET) data. Both modelling and computational issues are considered. Biophysically inspired informative priors are developed for the problem at hand, and by comparison with default vague priors it is shown that the proposed modelling is not overly sensitive to prior specification. It is also shown that an additive normal error structure does not describe measured PET data well, despite being very widely used, and that within a simple Bayesian framework simultaneous parameter estimation and model comparison can be performed with a more general noise model. The proposed approach is compared with standard techniques using both simulated and real data. In addition to good, robust estimation performance, the proposed technique provides, automatically, a characterisation of the uncertainty in the resulting estimates which can be considerable in applications such as PET.     

Confidence intervals for the difference in paired Youden indices

Comparison of accuracy between two diagnostic tests can be implemented by investigating the difference in paired Youden indices. However, few literature articles have discussed the inferences for the difference in paired Youden indices. In this paper, we propose an exact confidence interval for the difference in paired Youden indices based on the generalized pivotal quantities. For comparison, the maximum likelihood estimate‐based interval and a bootstrap‐based interval are also included in the study for the difference in paired Youden indices. Abundant simulation studies are conducted to compare the relative performance of these intervals by evaluating the coverage probability and average interval length. Our simulation results demonstrate that the exact confidence interval outperforms the other two intervals even with small sample size when the underlying distributions are normal. A real application is also used to illustrate the proposed intervals. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

各省区季度GDP数据质量评估

  国内外学者对我国GDP数据质量的质疑重点已从年度数据转到季度数据,从全国数据转向地方数据。本文通过设计一套较为系统且可操作性强的季度GDP评估指标体系,运用空间面板数据模型对各省区的季度GDP数据质量进行了实证检验。结果表明,整体来看,中国各省区季度GDP同各经济指标的匹配性较好,数据质量较高,并不存在明显的失真现象;从时间上来看,每年一、二季度的GDP存在一定程度的高估,而每年三、四季度的GDP则存在一定程度的低估,但是这种偏差在统计上不显著;分地区来看,尽管一半省区的季度GDP存在一定程度的高估,另一半省区存在一定程度的低估,但大部分省区高估或低估的程度在统计上不显著。文章进一步分析了其中的原因。     

A Simulation Study of Predicting Flush Date

For Canada's boreal forest region, the accurate modelling of the timing of the appearance of aspen leaves is important to forest fire management, as it signifies the end of the spring fire season that occurs after snowmelt. This article compares two methods, a midpoint rule and a conditional expectation method used to estimate the true flush date for interval-censored data from a large set of fire-weather stations in Alberta, Canada. The conditional expectation method uses the interval censored kernel density estimator of Braun et al. (2005 Braun , J. , Duchesne , T. , Stafford , J. E. ( 2005 ). Local likelihood density estimation for interval censored data . Canadian Journal of Statistics 33 : 39 – 60 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The methods are compared via simulation, where true flush dates were generated from a normal distribution and then converted into intervals by adding and subtracting exponential random variables. The simulation parameters were estimated from the data set and several scenarios were considered. The study reveals that the conditional expectation method is never worse than the midpoint method, and that there is a significant advantage to this method when the intervals are large. An illustration of the methodology applied to the Alberta data set is also provided.     

Measures of uniformity in experimental designs: A selective overview

ABSTRACT

Discrepancies are measures which are defined as the deviation between the empirical and the theoretical uniform distribution. In this way, discrepancy is a measure of uniformity which provides a way of construction a special kind of space filling designs, namely uniform designs. Several discrepancies have been proposed in recent literature. A brief, selective review of these measures including some construction algorithms are given in this paper. Furthermore, a critical discussion along with some comparisons is provided, as well.     

Uniform Design for Experiments with Mixtures

The goal of uniform mixture design is to scatter the design points in the experimental region uniformly. The commonly used criteria, such as mean square distance, are based on the Euclidean distance. Based on the Lee distance, a new criterion is proposed in this article. And an algorithm, called NTLBG, is also proposed to refine the randomly generated design for the experimental design with mixtures. Some examples show that the design generated by the NTLBG algorithm has a lower criteria value.