Uniform strong convergence results for the conditional kaplan-meier estimator and its quantiles

We consider a fixed design model in which the responses are possibly right censored. The aim of this paper is to establish some important almost sure convergence properties of the Kaplan-Meier type estimator for the lifetime distribution at a given covariate value. We also consider the corresponding quantile estimator and obtain a modulus of continuity result. Our rates of uniform strong convergence are obtained via exponential probability bounds.     

A relaxed approach to combinatorial problems in robustness and diagnostics

A range of procedures in both robustness and diagnostics require optimisation of a target functional over all subsamples of given size. Whereas such combinatorial problems are extremely difficult to solve exactly, something less than the global optimum can be ‘good enough’ for many practical purposes, as shown by example. Again, a relaxation strategy embeds these discrete, high-dimensional problems in continuous, low-dimensional ones. Overall, nonlinear optimisation methods can be exploited to provide a single, reasonably fast algorithm to handle a wide variety of problems of this kind, thereby providing a certain unity. Four running examples illustrate the approach. On the robustness side, algorithmic approximations to minimum covariance determinant (MCD) and least trimmed squares (LTS) estimation. And, on the diagnostic side, detection of multiple multivariate outliers and global diagnostic use of the likelihood displacement function. This last is developed here as a global complement to Cook’s (in J. R. Stat. Soc. 48:133–169, 1986) local analysis. Appropriate convergence of each branch of the algorithm is guaranteed for any target functional whose relaxed form is—in a natural generalisation of concavity, introduced here—‘gravitational’. Again, its descent strategy can downweight to zero contaminating cases in the starting position. A simulation study shows that, although not optimised for the LTS problem, our general algorithm holds its own with algorithms that are so optimised. An adapted algorithm relaxes the gravitational condition itself.     

On the Processes Underlying the Relationship Between Alexithymia and Gambling Severity

A great number of individuals with persistent problematic gambling behavior exhibit alexithymic tendencies, greater impulsivity, impaired working memory and poor mood. However, the relationship between these cognitive, affective and personality factors in problem gambling remains poorly understood. Our aim was to investigate multiple pathways of the alexithymia and problem gambling relationship. One hundred and six male subjects with different levels of gambling problem severity were recruited. Alexithymia, impulsivity and verbal working memory were evaluated, and their relationships to disordered gambling was examined by means of a path analysis. Results indicate that alexithymia is related to an increase in the severity of gambling indirectly, i.e., through distress severity. In addition, a rise of alexithymic tendencies was also associated with problem gambling severity through enhanced impulsivity that directly increased distress. Working memory capacity failed to significantly impact our path model. Overall, our findings contribute a new finding to the literature by highlighting the importance of alexithymia, in addition to impulsivity, in the understanding of gambling problem severity and its clinical course.     

Impaired Metacognitive Capacities in Individuals with Problem Gambling

Impaired insight into behavior may be one of the clinical characteristics of pathological gambling. In the present study, we tested whether the capacity to evaluate accurately the quality of one’s own decisions during a non-gambling task was impaired in problem gamblers. Twenty-five problem gamblers and 25 matched healthy participants performed an artificial grammar-learning paradigm, in which the quality of choice remains uncertain throughout the task. After each trial of this task, participants had to indicate how confident they were in the grammaticality judgements using a scale ranging from 1 (low confidence) to 7 (high confidence). Results showed that (i), problem gamblers’ performance on the grammaticality test was lower than controls’; (ii) there was a significant correlation between grammaticality judgments and confidence for control participants, which indicates metacognitive insight and the presence of conscious knowledge; (iii) this correlation was not significant in problem gamblers, which suggests a disconnection between performance and confidence in this group. These findings suggest that problem gamblers are impaired in their metacognitive abilities on a non-gambling task, which suggests that compulsive gambling is associated with poor insight as a general factor. Clinical interventions tailored to improve metacognition in gambling could be a fruitful avenue of research in order to prevent pathological gambling.     

Young people’s disillusionment with French education before 1968: sport,the school curriculum and social change

The quasi-revolutionary events of May 1968 have come to symbolize the generation gap between young people and their elders in France, and of contestation over social values, freedom and control. This article demonstrates that this discontent was apparent earlier in the decade, although politicians in charge of youth affairs either did not see it or chose not to publicize its existence. It focuses on debates relating to sport – and its incorporation into the teaching of physical education in lycées – because of its importance both within formal schooling and as an extra-curricular leisure activity. In 1966 François Missoffe, Minister of Youth Affairs and Sport, launched a huge inquiry into the problems facing young people, leading to the publication of an official report in 1967 which, perhaps surprisingly, had nothing to say about unrest among young people. This article aims to access the voices of young people in French lycées by mining the contents of over 2600 files of evidence that were collected during the course of the Missoffe inquiry. We argue that it is important to measure the gap between what the political and educational decision-makers presupposed about the sporting needs of young people and the views these same young people actually expressed. The article highlights examples of young people’s disillusionment with the teaching of sport and physical education, demonstrating that this not only conveyed signs of discontent with educational institutions as a whole but also a wider desire for social change that anticipated the views of angry lycéens (school pupils) in May 1968.     

The implications of irreversibility in emergency response decisions

The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example.     

Weighted averaging,Jeffrey conditioning and invariance

Jeffrey conditioning tells an agent how to update her priors so as to grant a given probability to a particular event. Weighted averaging tells an agent how to update her priors on the basis of testimonial evidence, by changing to a weighted arithmetic mean of her priors and another agent’s priors. We show that, in their respective settings, these two seemingly so different updating rules are axiomatized by essentially the same invariance condition. As a by-product, this sheds new light on the question how weighted averaging should be extended to deal with cases when the other agent reveals only parts of her probability distribution. The combination of weighted averaging (for the events whose probability the other agent reveals) and Jeffrey conditioning (for the events whose probability the other agent does not reveal) is a comprehensive updating rule to deal with such cases, which is again axiomatized by invariance under embedding. We conclude that, even though one may dislike Jeffrey conditioning or weighted averaging, the two make a natural pair when a policy for partial testimonial evidence is needed.     

The Work Profiler: Revision and maintenance of a profiling tool for the recently unemployed in the Netherlands

For the public employment services of many Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the importance of using profiling tools for job seekers is increasing rapidly in importance. With this trend, there is also widening concern about the risks of an over reliance on such tools. Part of the concern lies with a lack of transparency concerning how such tools work. This article aims to address this by offering a detailed investigation of the Work Profiler – the instrument used in the Netherlands by the Institute for Employee Benefits (Uitvoeringsinstituut Werknemersverzekeringen – UWV) to predict re-employment success and provide a diagnosis of key factors hindering job seekers’ return to work. Professionals use these insights to deepen their understanding of the situation of job seekers and decide together with job seekers how to support their return to work. UWV decided to maintain and revise the Work Profiler through a large-scale study involving a sample of 53,238 people. Work Profiler 1.0 was developed in 2007–2010 and has been in use on a regional basis since 2011 and nationwide since 2015. This article explains how the new tool (version 2.0; implemented in 2018) works and, most importantly, demonstrates the choices made to ensure that it functions well and is used effectively by professionals. These latter two aspects are rarely discussed in the literature.     

Conspiracies beyond Fake News. Produsing Reinformation on Presidential Elections in the Transnational Hybrid Media System

As presidential elections carry the promise of distilling the contested and elusive “will of the people,” the protracted media event intensifies the public demand for exposing the transgressions of the aspiring political elite. This expectation provides fertile ground for investigative journalism, ultrapartisan smear campaigns, fake news, and full-fledged conspiracy theories that are sometimes difficult to differentiate from one another in a hybridized media space. We compare three unique conspiracy stories—Macronleaks, Pizzagate, and Voter fraud—emerging during the previous French and American elections. We assess the divergent strategies of social action that contribute to the stories’ dissimilar patterns for intervening the political news cycle with the “reinformative toolkit” and deconstruct the common conspiratorial “masterplot” for “reinforming” the public. Focusing on online “produsers”—media users functioning as (dis)information producers—we analyze how the grassroots level participated in shaping the conspiracy stories’ synopses and channeling news-framed, conspiratory content between mainstream and “countermedia” outlets.