Professional Perspectives on Decision Making about the Long-term Care of Older People

With the increasing pressure on social and health care resources,professionals have to be more explicit in their decision makingregarding the long-term care of older people. This groundedtheory study used 19 focus groups and nine semi-structured interviews(99 staff in total) to explore professional perspectives onthis decision making. Focus group participants and intervieweescomprised care managers, social workers, consultant geriatricians,general medical practitioners, community nurses, home care managers,occupational therapists and hospital discharge support staff.The emerging themes spanned context, clients, families and services.Decisions were often prompted by a crisis, hindering professionalsseeking to make a measured assessment. Fear of burglary andassault, and the willingness and availability of family to helpwere major factors in decisions about living at home. Serviceavailability in terms of public funding for community care,the availability of home care workers and workload pressureson primary care services influenced decision ‘thresholds’regarding admission to institutional care. Assessment toolsdesigned to assist decision making about the long-term careof older people need to take into account the critical aspectsof individual fears and motivation, family support and the availabilityof publicly funded services as well as functional and medicalneeds.     

Joint Attention,Self‐Recognition,and Neurocognitive Function in Toddlers

Recent studies have attempted to understand the processes involved in joint attention because of its relevance to both atypical and normal development. Data from a recent study of young children with autism suggests that performance on a delay nonmatch to sample (DNMS) task associated with ventromedial prefrontal functions, but not an A‐not‐B/delayed response task associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was related to joint attention skills (Dawson et al., 2002). Recent research also suggests that joint attention is associated with dorsalmedial brain systems linked to self‐monitoring (Mundy, 2003). This study investigated the relations among joint attention, DNMS, and self‐recognition performance in a longitudinal study of 39 normally developing toddlers from 14 to 18 months. The results indicated that development on the DNMS and self‐recognition tasks, but not a means end task, predicted joint attention at 18 months. Further analysis showed that the model was only significant for initiating joint attention (IJA). The implications of these results for the neuro‐development of IJA are discussed.     

The Ecology of Family Guidance in Low-Income Mexican-American and European-American Families*

This two-part study applied an ecocultural perspective to socialization of daily and long-term goals in low-income Mexican-American and European-American families with children in third, fifth, and seventh grades. The first part of the study examined family members' participation and parents' socialization goals and guidance strategies for their children's daily household chores and homework activities. The second part of the study examined parents' long-term aspirations and guidance strategies for their children's educational, vocational, and moral development. For daily activities, results showed that in Mexican-American families both parents and siblings played important roles, whereas in European-American families parents were the primary socialization agents. As predicted, in both groups parents' expertise influenced their guidance strategies. Finally, Mexican-American and European-American parents differed in their relative endorsement of gender, relational, and self-reliance goals for household chores. For long-term goals, parents in both groups held high educational, vocational, and moral aspirations for their children. However, some parents of seventh-graders had lower educational and vocational aspirations than those of fifth- and third-graders. Although expertise consistently influenced Mexican-American parents' guidance strategies, the pattern for European-American parents was mixed. The discussion highlights between- and within-group differences in daily and long-term socialization practices with an emphasis on resources and vulnerabilities in the families.     

Improving on truncated linear estimates of exponential and gamma scale parameters

We consider the problem of estimating the scale parameter of an exponential or a gamma distribution under squared error loss when the scale parameter θ is known to be greater than some fixed value θ₀. Natural estimators in this setting include truncated linear functions of the sufficient statistic. Such estimators are typically inadmissible, but explicit improvements seem difficult to find. Some are presented here. A particularly interesting finding is that estimators which are admissible in the untruncated problem which take values only in the interior of the truncated parameter space are found to be inadmissible for the truncated problem.     

Sustainable societies in the information age

This article interweaves the ideas of sustainable development, sustainable societies, and the power of advanced information technologies toward developing recommendations for social science research on information technology in society. Worldwide concern has arisen over the potentially catastrophic consequences of global climate and environmental change. As a result, sustainable development (i.e., the simultaneous protection of both the global environment and the global economy) is receiving considerable attention. Necessary for achieving sustainable development are sustainable societies, which are capable of designing, implementing, managing and evaluating long-term environmental programs. This article presents ten characteristics that describe sustainable societies and discusses how information technologies, from wireless personal digital assistants to intelligent agents to multi-media database systems, could support the evolution of sustainable societies. Topics for social science research related to designing and ameliorating the negative consequences of eight hypothetical computer-based systems are presented. Bruce E. Tonn is leader of the policy systems analysis group at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-principal investigator of the National Center for Environmental Decision-making Research. His research interests include environmental and energy policy, computers in society, decision making, and futures studies. He is past president of the Social Science Computing Association. His research focuses on planning, assessment and evaluation, energy use and conservation, and education.     

Leslie matrix models

A review of the Leslie matrix model theory and its literature 1941-1987 is presented. The point of view is that of a mathematician who focuses on the parts of the theory which are relevant to demography. Works of a decidedly applied nature are not dealt with.     

Policies over time and pareto optimality

This paper is concerned with sequences of policies that occur over time in voting models and planning procedures. The framework for our analysis includes assumptions that are satisfied by models in the corresponding literatures, together with other standard assumptions for microeconomic analysis that involve time. The starting point for our analyses is the prespective that results from combining the following (widely held) views: 1) certain voting models and planning procedures can be interpreted as being non-tatonnement or sequential processes (where each policy in the sequence that is generated is actually experienced by voters or consumers) and 2) an alternative being Pareto optimal in any given period (temporal Pareto optimality) is the appropriate efficiency criterion only if the alternative is the final outcome from a tatonnement process-and that, otherwise, one should examine the efficiency of the entire path (using intertemporal Pareto optimality). Our first observation about the planning literature is that is has (by and large) neglected the efficiency criterion that is appropriate for the discrete-time procedures that can be interpreted as non-tatonnement or sequential processes-and that, what's more, such trajectories will (in general) fail to meet this criterion. Our second observation identifies some results that can be used to establish that some of these trajectories will at least be ultimately intertemporally Pareto optimal. In our discussion of voting theory, we review Buchanan's opposition to requiring (social) choice consistency for voting procedures-and his argument for this position on (Pareto) efficiency grounds. We then consider voting procedures that can be interpreted as non-tatonnement or sequential processes and arrive at the conclusion that, in these cases, (i) majority rule cycles are intertemporally Pareto inefficient and (ii) achieving intertemporal Pareto optimality requires choice consistency. We then go on to show that related observations apply to Kramer's normative conclusions about his dynamical model of political equilibrium — and identify some further references where similar observations apply. In the final part of our discussion of voting models, we arrive at the further conclusion that, in the most relevant cases, a trajectory that stays in the temporal Pareto set is not necessarily more desirable (on efficiency grounds) than one that doesn't.This paper has been improved by helpful comments and suggestions that have been provided by Kenneth Arrow, an anonymous referee, and the editor who handled the paper.Peter Coughlin gratefully acknowledges financial support provided by (i) National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8409352, and (ii) the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford (with support from National Science Foundation Grant No. BNS-8700864 and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation).     

Parents and patients: Members of an interdisciplinary team on an adolescent inpatient unit

In a six-year study on a locked psychiatric hospital unit for adolescents, first patients and then their families became integrated into the interdisciplinary treatment team. The results were universally beneficial. After initial resistance and some fine tuning of their skills, the staff became strong supporters of the program. Parents, no longer one down, developed a close working relationship with the therapists and milieu staff. Treatment planning and implementation was enriched by the interaction and dissension was minimized. Most important of all, the adolescents improved more rapidly and hospital stays were significantly shortened.     

On estimating census undercount in small areas

"Net undercount rates in the U.S. decennial census have been steadily declining over the last several censuses. Differential undercounts among race groups and geographic areas, however, appear to persist. In the following, we examine and compare several methodologies for providing small area estimates of census coverage by constructing artificial populations. Measures of performance are also introduced to assess the various small area estimates. Synthetic estimation in combination with regression modelling provide the best results over the methods considered. Sampling error effects are also simulated. The results form the basis for determining coverage evaluation survey small area estimates of the 1900 decennial census."