河北省高校周边文化圈建设研究

建设河北特色文化大省，实现文化大发展、大繁荣，是时代的课题。高校和地方文化各自独立发展，缺乏竞合的现状是制约河北文化发展的一个难题。高校周边文化圈建设是解决这一难题、建设文化特色大省的有效途径，河北省政府牵头，协调高校，以地方文化为主体，采取以点带面的形式，逐步实现文化圈的建设。     

论新中国成立后街道校外教育的社会作用——以北京地区为中心（1949-1965）

新中国成立后,街道办事处与居委会等组织为弥补学校教育的不足,积极开展少年儿童校外教育,有效的实现了学校教育、社会教育、家庭教育的互动与结合.街居制下校外教育的发展,有效的净化了社会环境,为少年儿童的成长创建了良好的社会氛围,发挥了积极作用.     

Fitting competing risks data to bivariate Pareto models

This paper revisits two bivariate Pareto models for fitting competing risks data. The first model is the Frank copula model, and the second one is a bivariate Pareto model introduced by Sankaran and Nair (1993 Sankaran, P. G., and N. U. Nair. 1993. A bivariate Pareto model and its applications to reliability. Naval Research Logistics 40 (7):1013–1020. doi:10.1002/1520-6750(199312)40:7%3c1013::AID-NAV3220400711%3e3.0.CO;2-7.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We discuss the identifiability issues of these models and develop the maximum likelihood estimation procedures including their computational algorithms and model-diagnostic procedures. Simulations are conducted to examine the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. Real data are analyzed for illustration.     

终身教育视野下职业院校继续教育的发展

在全球化趋势下,全球的信息迅速流动,快速地改变着工作就业方式,为继续教育培训提出了巨大挑战.在终身教育理念的背景下,北京财贸职业学院继续教育学院围绕“建成国内一流、具有国际影响力的财贸高职名校”的总目标,充分发挥学院自身的特色优势及资源,注重项目培育和品牌塑造,在招生、自身建设、教学管理、对外合作等方面积极谋划,有效促进了自身的发展.     

女性香水容器的造型设计与时代审美特点的关系

女性香水容器造型设计的历史与时代审美相一致,其造型形式随着时代发展表现出不同的类型,这些类型的变化显示了其历史的演进与各个时代审美特点之间的密切关系。     

FDI与出口贸易品技术含量关系的实证分析

以FDI与我国出口贸易品技术含量的关系作为切入点,选择通信设备、计算机制造业、医药制造业作为高新技术产业的代表,通用设备制造业、专用设备制造业作为传统制造业的代表。根据这4个行业1997—2011年利用外资与出口贸易品技术含量的数据,基于面板数据模型对高新技术产业和传统制造业FDI与出口贸易品技术含量之间的长期均衡关系及相关性进行实证分析。结果表明:高新技术产业利用外资与出口贸易品技术含量存在着长期均衡稳定关系,出口贸易品技术含量随着高新技术产业利用外资的增加而提高,并有明显的促进作用,而传统制造业利用外资对出口贸易品技术含量的影响有限。     

修正衰减曲线法在低渗气藏动态分析中的应用

摘要：压力是气井和气藏生产动态分析的灵魂，很多动态分析方法都与压力有着直接的联系。然而，由于致密低渗透气藏产量低、压力下降快、关井压力恢复缓慢等生产特征，以及生产方式的限制，在生产过程中很难获得气井或气藏地层压力资料。压降法、产量不稳定分析法和产量递减曲线分析方法是气藏常用的气井生产动态分析方法，但由于地层压力资料缺乏，压降法和产量不稳定分析法也都受到了很大的限制，在衰减递减曲线分析方法的基础上对其进行修正，摆脱了压力资料的限制，通过和压降法对比分析，验证了修正衰减曲线分析方法在生产动态分析中的可靠性。     

Partners,Institutions and International Currencies: The International Political Foundations for the Rise of the Renminbi

The use of an international currency is not just a natural market phenomenon; it relies heavily on international political foundations. The historical lessons of the four major international currencies—the pound, dollar, euro and yen—show that a strong partner network and a favorable international institutional environment are the two major political foundations for the formation of a stable international currency. The rise of the renminbi, as a late starter looking to become a major international currency, depends not only on the requisite economic conditions but on governmental diplomacy aimed at attracting more monetary cooperation partners and creating international institutions that support its worldwide use. This strategy reinforces the political foundations for the rise of the renminbi. Building a network of partners supporting the renminbi as an international currency and creating a system of international monetary institutions are the real tests of the issuing country’s political leadership. This political leadership capacity has three dimensions: public trust founded on reputation building; a centripetal force driven by provision of benefits; and coercive force applied through sanctions. Comparatively speaking, the renminbi is still in the early stage of its ascent, so the development of its political infrastructure should concentrate mainly on gaining public trust through reputation-building and employing centripetal force involving provision of benefits.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

论社会主义核心价值观视阈下的政治平等

在社会主义核心价值观的视阈中研究政治平等问题,它体现的是个人与国家、国家与社会之间关系的问题,关乎社会制度的原则、理念和价值。从政治哲学的研究角度,深入剖析以核心价值观为表征的当代中国政治现代化进程中政治平等的内涵,既表现了人类的政治实践,又体现了社会主义社会的本质要求,是马克思主义基本理论在当代中国实践中的运用。在中国特色社会主义的建设实践中,政治平等是实现社会主义核心价值观的必要环节,其实践体现了核心价值观的根本要求。