A Shiny Update to an Old Experiment Game

ABSTRACT

Games can be a powerful tool for learning about statistical methodology. Effective game design involves a fine balance between caricature and realism, to simultaneously illustrate salient concepts in a controlled setting and serve as a testament to real-world applicability. Striking that balance is particularly challenging in response surface and design domains, where real-world scenarios often play out over long time scales, during which theories are revised, model and inferential techniques are improved, and knowledge is updated. Here, I present a game, borrowing liberally from one first played over 40 years ago, which attempts to achieve that balance while reinforcing a cascade of topics in modern nonparametric response surfaces, sequential design, and optimization. The game embeds a blackbox simulation within a shiny app whose interface is designed to simulate a realistic information–availability setting, while offering a stimulating, competitive environment wherein students can try out new methodology, and ultimately appreciate its power and limitations. Interface, rules, timing with course material, and evaluation are described, along with a “case study” involving a cohort of students at Virginia Tech. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Bruises on the soul: older women,domestic violence and elder abuse

This article presents an overview on the status of current knowledge concerning elder abuse and neglect, and to move to a consideration of factors from the field of domestic violence. For many years, attempts to understand the phenomenon of elder abuse remained a problem because of its complexity. This paper, however, discusses abuse and neglect at three levels--macro, mezzo, and micro: macro abuse refers to issues at a societal level; mezzo abuse refers to behaviors, attitudes, and policies inflicted on older people at the community level; micro abuse refers to issues in the domestic setting. All definitions of elderly abuse generally include physical, psychological and financial abuses and neglect. Added to these categories of abuse are sexual and social abuses. Attempts were also made to understand the dynamics of elderly abuse. Majority of the cases of abuse among elderly people happens among the females and is mostly inflicted by their spouses. Deteriorating health, thwarted hopes, expectations and plans; a diminution in capacities to function and manage; an increase in vulnerability and dependence all contribute to the development or continuation of abusive situations within intimate relationships in old age. Although gender played a major role in elderly abuse, attempts to consider it in relation to this issue remained limited. Based on the discussions presented, it was made clear that elderly abuse is comparable to domestic violence, although it is different from other forms of family violence.     

Bayesian MARS

A Bayesian approach to multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) fitting (Friedman, 1991) is proposed. This takes the form of a probability distribution over the space of possible MARS models which is explored using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (Green, 1995). The generated sample of MARS models produced is shown to have good predictive power when averaged and allows easy interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the overall fit.     

Semiparametric Efficient Estimation in the Generalized Odds-Rate Class of Regression Models for Right-Censored Time-to-Event Data

The generalized odds-rate class of regression models for time to event data is indexed by a non-negative constant and assumes thatg(S(t|Z)) = (t) + Zwhere g(s) = log(^-1(s-) for > 0, g₀(s) = log(- log s), S(t|Z) is the survival function of the time to event for an individual with qx1 covariate vector Z, is a qx1 vector of unknown regression parameters, and (t) is some arbitrary increasing function of t. When =0, this model is equivalent to the proportional hazards model and when =1, this model reduces to the proportional odds model. In the presence of right censoring, we construct estimators for and exp((t)) and show that they are consistent and asymptotically normal. In addition, we show that the estimator for is semiparametric efficient in the sense that it attains the semiparametric variance bound.     

Campaigning against female genital mutilation in Ethiopia using popular education

In Ethiopia, the Italian Association for Women in Development (AIDOS) has been working with Ethiopia's National Committee on Traditional Practices Affecting the Health of Women and Children for 5 years. AIDOS began working on female genital mutilation in the early 1980s and rejects charges of cultural imperialism that are applied to Northern organizations attempting to help African organizations address this violation of universal human rights. In Ethiopia, 85% of women are mutilated, with most undergoing Sunna, or removal of the prepuce of the clitoris. The joint project seeks to increase awareness about the health consequences of female genital mutilation in the target group. The primary technique used is provision of training of trainers courses and presentation of four modular units and audiovisual materials specifically designed for use with socially influential women, male and female secondary school students, community leaders, and health workers. In addition, an information/education campaign uses videos and sound and slide shows with accompanying story books. A second category of communication tools was developed for a mass information campaign, including radio spots, posters, information leaflets, and a newsletter. When the project was ready for expansion into the southern region of the country, it became clear that a new participatory communication strategy was required to stimulate discussion, such as the use of role playing and theater. Working together, the two organizations have successfully confronted project constraints such as the difficulty in assessing project impact, scheduling problems, and gender-biased assess to information.     

What turns you on and off?

When you are exploring your career and where you are headed, it is helpful to consider what aspects of your job turn you on, and of course, those that don't. Energizers are activities that excite and invigorate you or people who lift your heart and inspire you. De-energizers are activities or people who drain you, drag you down, depress you. Make lists of those things that energize and de-energize you either at work or in other situations. Try hard to do something to incorporate or change at least the first five on each list and see if you feel more job and life satisfaction. Responses from 30 participants of a recent Career Choices program are provided to help you get started.