Bayesian space-time modeling of malaria incidence in Sucre state, Venezuela

Malaria is a parasitic infectious tropical disease that causes high mortality rates in the tropical belt. In Venezuela, Sucre state is considered the third state with most disease prevalence. This paper presents a hierarchical regression log-Poisson space-time model within a Bayesian approach to represent the incidence of malaria in Sucre state, Venezuela, during the period 1990–2002 in 15 municipalities of the state. Several additive models for the logarithm of the relative risk of the disease for each district were considered. These models differ in their structure by including different combinations of social-economic and climatic covariates in a multiple regression term. A random effect that captures the spatial heterogeneity in the study region, and a CAR (Conditionally Autoregressive) component that recognizes the effect of nearby municipalities in the transmission of the disease each year, are also included in the model. A simpler version without including the CAR component was also fitted to the data. Model estimation and predictive inference was carried out through the implementation of a computer code in the WinBUGS software, which makes use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. For model selection the criterion of minimum posterior predictive loss (D) was used. The Moran I statistic was calculated to test the independence of the residuals of the resulting model. Finally, we verify the model fit by using the Bayesian p-value, and in most cases the selected model captures the spatial structure of the relative risks among the neighboring municipalities each year. For years with a poor model fit, the t-Student distribution is used as an alternative model for the spatial local random effect with better fit to the tail behavior of the data probability distribution.     

Nonparametric Forecasting in Time Series—A Comparative Study

The problem of predicting a future value of a time series is considered in this article. If the series follows a stationary Markov process, this can be done by nonparametric estimation of the autoregression function. Two forecasting algorithms are introduced. They only differ in the nonparametric kernel-type estimator used: the Nadaraya-Watson estimator and the local linear estimator. There are three major issues in the implementation of these algorithms: selection of the autoregressor variables, smoothing parameter selection, and computing prediction intervals. These have been tackled using recent techniques borrowed from the nonparametric regression estimation literature under dependence. The performance of these nonparametric algorithms has been studied by applying them to a collection of 43 well-known time series. Their results have been compared to those obtained using classical Box-Jenkins methods. Finally, the practical behavior of the methods is also illustrated by a detailed analysis of two data sets.     

Four comments for the paper from Liu et al. (2019)

We give comments for the paper from Liu et al. (2019) about the Item Response Theory (IRT) model under consideration, the justification to compute Marginal likelihood, about what we learn with the data analysis performed and finally, about the computational issues in this paper.     

Species composition,abundance and diet of a squamate assemblage from the Carnaval stream headwaters (Buenos Aires,Argentina)

Urban Ecosystems - The present work summarizes 10 years of field observations of an exurban squamate assemblage occupying a 1200 ha patch in the suburbs of La Plata City (Los...     

Necessary Disruptions: A Discussion of Daniel Butler’s “Racialized Bodies and the Violence of the Setting”

This discussion of Daniel Butler’s article “Racialized Bodies and the Violence of the Setting” takes up the importance of the concept of place, largely through the lens of Frantz Fanon. It argues that being is best understood as being placed, emphasizing the necessity of material and historical setting for any ontological formation. Very tentatively, it advances a fragile hope that Whiteness is currently being placed in a way that can no longer be regarded as something universalized and invisible.     

Eating heritage: caste,colonialism, and the contestation of adivasi creativity

ABSTRACT

This paper uses a multiple colonialisms approach to study cultural production in India and argue that coloniality is not a casteless structure of violence. In discursive and planning rhetoric, ‘creativity is in India’s DNA.’ This discourse incites the poor to harness and develop their tangible and intangible cultural heritage in order to feed themselves. Foregrounding anti-caste, Dalit scholarship in conversation with extant formulations of decolonial aesthetics focuses urgent attention on the fact that caste domination and violence structure inter-state political systems of development planning and post/colonial state discourses of heritage that claim to feed the caste-oppressed poor with their own creativity. This article attends to the political histories and critiques of Indigenous Chhara performance artists because their expressive cultures foreground anti-caste struggles against simultaneous state erasure and capture of Indigenous creativity. Against planning’s compensatory solution of eating heritage, anti-caste scholarship and the creative politics of Budhan Theatre refute the apparent castelessness of what counts as creativity and heritage, demonstrating that optimistic global creative economy discourses actually rely upon caste and colonial histories to entrench caste-based definitions of heritage within international and national development regimes. Budhan Theatre’s decolonizing cultural production avoids the mistakes of postcolonial scholarship and its erasure of caste histories. They prompt a multiple colonialisms approach which refuses labels of postcolonial or settler colonial states to privilege instead attention to the actually existing contemporary ways in which caste violence structures inter-state systems of violence, policies, and discourses.     

Psychological Distress in Older Portuguese Gay and Bisexual Men: The Mediating Role of LGBT Community Connectedness

Abstract

Objectives: Examining Psychological Distress (PD) among older Portuguese gay and bisexual men (GBM), and the mediator role of LGBT community connectedness (LGBTCC) of minority stress variables on PD. Methods: We performed a mediation analysis with LGBTCC as mediator between minority stress variables and PD with a sample of 110 elderly GBM. Results: We found moderate PD levels; LGBTCC was a significant mediator between concealment of sexual orientation and PD, but not between internalized stigma and expectations of rejection and PD. Conclusions: More attention is needed to Older Portuguese GBM’s mental health. LGBTCC is an important ameliorating factor for older GBM.     

Comments on “The power of monitoring: how to make the most of a contaminated multivariate sample”

These are comments on the invited paper “The power of monitoring: How to make the most of a contaminated multivariate sample” by Andrea Cerioli, Marco Riani, Anthony Atkinson and Aldo Corbellini.