On optimising the estimation of high quantiles of a probability distribution

One of the major aims of one-dimensional extreme-value theory is to estimate quantiles outside the sample or at the boundary of the sample. The underlying idea of any method to do this is to estimate a quantile well inside the sample but near the boundary and then to shift it somehow to the right place. The choice of this “anchor quantile” plays a major role in the accuracy of the method. We present a bootstrap method to achieve the optimal choice of sample fraction in the estimation of either high quantile or endpoint estimation which extends earlier results by Hall and Weissman (1997) in the case of high quantile estimation. We give detailed results for the estimators used by Dekkers et al. (1989). An alternative way of attacking problems like this one is given in a paper by Drees and Kaufmann (1998).     

Sinking,swimming and sailing: experiences of job satisfaction and emotional exhaustion in child welfare employees

The authors conducted a mixed‐method study after a previous study of child welfare employees revealed a subgroup exhibiting surprisingly high levels of both emotional exhaustion (EE) and job satisfaction (JS). This subgroup included direct service workers, supervisors and managers. As these findings appeared to conflict with previous studies, we re‐reviewed the literature and undertook the current study to account for the co‐existence of EE and JS. We explored and compared this subgroup with two others: workers who found their work satisfying without experiencing high levels of EE and those whose high levels of EE were associated with low JS. Using a survey that included several standardized measures with 226 employees and semi‐structured interviews with a criteria‐based subsample of 25, we explored the role that personality, career expectations, coping styles, stage of life, education, gender and social networks play in outcomes for individual employees. Analyses of quantitative and qualitative data yielded a profile for each subgroup, offering insights into the subjective experiences of workers within individual, social and organizational contexts. These findings have implications for recruitment, training and support of child welfare workers.     

Peer Group Affiliation of Children: The Role of Perceived Popularity,Likeability, and Behavioral Similarity in Bullying

To understand children's peer group affiliation, this study examined to what extent children in naturally occurring groups resemble each other on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity. Participants were fourth‐ to sixth‐grade pupils (N = 461). Peer groups were identified using the social cognitive map procedure. Resemblance on bullying, likeability, and perceived popularity was evaluated by means of variance components models. Resemblance in peer groups was strongest for perceived popularity, followed by bullying and likeability. Moreover, resemblance on bullying could for a large part be attributed to the high‐perceived popularity of the group, and to a lesser extent, to the low likeability of the group. It is concluded that children showing bullying seem to affiliate with each other most of all to attain or maintain their position in a perceived popular peer group. Results stress the importance of considering the functionality of bullying from a group perspective.     

Parent and Peer Attachment in Minority Males at High Risk for Delinquency

Juvenile delinquency and high risk behaviors have been linked to disturbances in attachment. The present study examined parent and peer attachment in 67 African American males and 97 Latinos (ages 12–17, M = 14.7 ± 1.3) attending an alternative school. The Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment was used to identify 3 attachment style groups: “Isolated,” “Disconnected,” and “Connected.” Controlling for age, attachment group membership predicted differences in delinquent behaviors, as did ethnicity. Further, on the Youth Self-Report of the Child Behavior Checklist, attachment group membership predicted differences in both the Internalizing and Externalizing Scales. Implications for interventions with each identified attachment group are discussed.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of the New York State Operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in‐place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario‐based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.     

A cumulative ecological–transactional risk model of child maltreatment and behavioral outcomes: Reconceptualizing early maltreatment report as risk factor

The current analysis was designed to critically examine the tendency to focus on child maltreatment as a unique risk factor and test the resulting assumption of a direct causal relationship between early maltreatment and later behavioral problems. The variation seen in behavioral outcomes among children reported for maltreatment early in life led us to hypothesize that the cumulative level of risk facing children and their families can, at least in part, account for that variation in outcome. Participants were 242 mothers of predominantly at-risk newborn infants who were interviewed shortly after giving birth. The State Central Registry of Maltreatment was then reviewed over each child's first four years of life to assess for early maltreatment. Following the neonatal interviews, mothers completed the Child Behavior Checklist when their children were 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 years-of-age. Although early maltreatment report does appear to be important to early child functioning, the cumulative level of risk more strongly predicts long-term clinical behavioral difficulty. High-risk children who were not reported for maltreatment by age 4 demonstrate greater behavioral problem trajectories than did low-risk children with a maltreatment report. Maltreatment itself may be best conceptualized as an important, but not singularly so, risk factor for later behavioral problems. In focusing directly on reported maltreatment, our child protective systems may be paying too little attention to what else is going wrong in the lives of children and targeting intervention efforts in the wrong direction. When it comes to early maltreatment our child protective policy and practice need to broaden their lenses to include greater emphasis on overall family functioning, stress and well-being. Early maltreatment, it seems, may be a symptom of more profound problems in the early environments of our most vulnerable children, rather than the problem itself.     

The Political Role of Service Delivery in State‐Building: Exploring the Relevance of European History for Developing Countries

Concerns about failed and fragile states have put state‐ and nation‐building firmly on the academic and policy agenda, but the crucial role of public services in this process has remained underexplored. The 1960s and ‘70s generated a substantial set of literature that is largely missing from current writing. It identified state penetration, standardisation and accommodation as key processes in the state‐ and nation‐building sequence. This article analyses these three processes in Western Europe in the seventeenth to nineteenth centuries, and the role of public services therein, to explore how they may help us to understand the success and failure of state‐ and nation‐building in developing countries and fragile states.     

Acculturation,Ethnicity, and Air Pollution Perceptions

A globalizing world increases immigration between nations, raising the question of how acculturation (or its lack) of immigrants and their descendants to host societies affects risk perceptions. A survey of Paterson, New Jersey, residents tested acculturation's associations with attitudes to air pollution and its management, and knowledge of and self‐reported behaviors concerning air pollution. Linguistic and temporal proxy measures for acculturation were independent variables along with ethnicity, plus controls for gender, age, education, and income in multivariate analyses. About one‐fifth of contrasts between non‐Hispanic whites, non‐Hispanic blacks, English‐interviewed Hispanics, and Spanish‐interviewed Hispanics were statistically significant (Bonferroni‐corrected) and of medium or higher affect size, with most featuring the Spanish‐interviewed Hispanics. Knowledge variables featured the most significant differences. Specifically, Spanish‐interviewed Hispanics reported less concern, familiarity with pollution, recognition of high pollution, and vigorous outdoor activity, and greater belief that government overregulates pollution than English‐interviewed Hispanics (and than the other two groups on most of these variables too). English‐interviewed Hispanics did not differ from non‐Hispanic whites, but did on several variables from non‐Hispanic blacks. Temporal proxies of acculturation among the foreign‐born were far less significant, but concern and familiarity with air pollution increased with time spent in the United States, while belief in overregulation and a positive trend in New Jersey pollution increased with time in the nation of origin. Implications of these acculturation and ethnicity findings for risk perception/communication research and practice are discussed.