Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model. Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the r$r$th moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin et al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214–223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a simulation study and in applications to three real data sets.     

The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP

Given that savings behaviour and worker productivity have strong life-cycle components and given that demographic profiles vary across countries, population age structure should be linked to differences in levels of economic development. In this paper, we measure the economic importance of age structure variation for the global economy. We find that demographic maturation has been associated with nearly half of the evolution of global per capita GDP since 1960. We also find that age structure differences can account for just over half of the variation in worldwide per capita GDP (i.e. the lack of sigma convergence) observed since 1960.

Soil Nutrient Depletion and Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Malthusian Nexus?

Soil nutrient mining and other forms of soil degradation threaten future soil productivity, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from 36 countries in SSA show a significant relationship at the supra-national level between soil nutrient depletion (including erosion), reduced fallow periods, and population pressure and thus illustrate the unsustainable population-agriculture-environment nexus on the continent which so far has been described in case studies only. It appears that Malthusian mechanisms are at work, despite encouraging indications of farmers' concerns and adaptation to changing conditions. It is agreed that a re-examination of the common land degradation assessments and farmers' response to changing conditions would be useful, however, this should not delay other recommended interventions.     

The effects of direct experience on consumer product evaluation

The effects of different sales strategies on consumer product evaluation were investigated. It was expected that direct product experience could decrease economic product valuation. Experiments 1 and 2 studied the effects of product trials and money-back guarantees on consumer willingness to pay (WTP). It appeared that WTP was significantly lower after a product trial than with a money-back guarantee or normal sale. In Experiment 3 a structural equation model showed that product trials had a positive effect on attitude toward the product. Also, a negative effect on WTP was found when the effect was measured directly, but a positive effect when the effect was measured indirectly (through attitude).     

“Post-Gay” Yet? The Relevance of the Lesbian and Gay Scene to Same-Sex Attracted Young People in Contemporary Australia

In recent years, the lesbian and gay “scene” of bars, nightclubs, and dance parties has been undergoing a structural decline in many Western cities. This article aimed to examine the relevance of the scene to same-sex attracted young adults amid these changes. An online survey was conducted with 572 same-sex attracted young women and men in Sydney. Only a minority of respondents participated in the scene at least weekly (16%), and the majority did not regard the scene as important to their leisure time (60%). However, respondents valued the scene as a space to connect with other same-sex attracted people and display same-sex affection without fear of hostility. Lesbian and gay identified respondents tended to be more socially engaged with the scene compared to other same-sex attracted respondents. The findings suggest that while the scene continues to be valued by many same-sex attracted young people, improved social attitudes have made participating in the scene less of an imperative.     

Measuring disparities in access to water based on the normative content of the human right

Measuring access to water in the Sustainable Development Goals era involves taking into account the human rights framework. Therefore, its content should be considered to conceptualize the level of service through adequate indicators and to follow-up inequities reduction at global, national and local level. This research develops and tests a methodology to measure intra-community disparities based on human right to water normative criteria through a stratified sampling, splitting households served by community based organizations and those self-provided. This approach implies considering much reduced populations, thus special care needs to be taken with sample sizes and uncertainty of estimators. The proposed methodology is practical to locate and accurately characterize minority sectors within rural communities and allows moving beyond central-tendency estimators. It implies higher costs for field data collection than traditional approaches, but this can be assumed given the relevance of the approach from a human rights perspective, which calls for adequate tools for equity-oriented policy making at local level. The research point out how results might be used to shape decision-making processes.     

Strategies and cues adolescents use to assess the age of an online stranger

A common risk among adolescents is sexual solicitation, in which an adolescent is asked to provide sexual information, engage in sexual talk, or in sexual activities. Although scholars increasingly address this topic from an intrapersonal perspective, there is little attention to factors of language use and message content. In two focus group studies, we investigated whether adolescent girls consider themselves capable of assessing whether an online stranger is an adult or a peer, the extent to which adolescent girls actually succeed in making this assessment, the strategies they apply to do so, and the content- and language-related cues focused on. Our findings suggest that most of the adolescent girls are confident in their ability to assess whether the stranger is a peer or an adult with possible sexual intentions. However, we also found that only 43% were able to correctly make this assessment. Most of the adolescents seem to apply the passive strategy of uncertainty reduction: They scan the profile page of the stranger, check contact information, and the profile picture. They may choose to apply the interactive strategy to find out more about the online stranger. Important content-related cues that alarm adolescent girls are: ignoring personal questions, showing an exaggerated amount of interest, acting as a friend, and being sexually oriented. Language cues mentioned related to word usage, abbreviations, sentence length, and tone.