Testing the lucas critique: A review

Claims that the parameters of an econometric model are invariant under changes in either policy rules or expectations processes entail super exogeneity and encompassing implications. Super exogeneity is always potentially refutable, and when both implications are involved, the Lucas critique is also refutable. We review the methodological background; the applicability of the Lucas critique; super exogeneity tests; the encompassing implications of feedback and feedforward models; and the role of incomplete information. The approach is applied to money demand in the u.S.A. to examine constancy, exogeneity, and encompassing, and reveals the Lucas critique to be inapplicable to the model under analysis.     

Midwives in the United States: past and present

The main focus of the present paper is to place the current occupation of certified nurse-midwife (CNM) within the historical context of the decline of lay midwifery and the rise of the medical profession. The development and growth of nurse-midwifery is documented, as well as current problems facing the profession. The most salient contemporary issue is cancellation of malpractice insurance for 1400 CNMs in 1985. The consequences of this, and suggested policy changes, are explored.An earlier draft of this paper was presented at the 1985 meeting of the Association for Humanist Sociology held in Atlanta, Georgia.     

Social dimensions of risk: The need for a sociological paradigm and policy research

The social dimensions of risk have been neglected by the sciences and professions concerned with risk. Recent debates demonstrate deep concern, much disagreement, and misunderstanding within the risk analysis community regarding issues requiring sociological analysis. The “people role” in risk analysis is not simply a matter of individual cognition and perception, important as these are. This paper reviews recent developments bearing on the policy implications of risk analysis which are of special interest to sociologists. He is completing a long-delayed book on juvenile delinquency and continuing the work on risk which was the basis for his American Sociological Association presidential address in 1984.     

ACCREDITATION: WHAT CONSTITUTES APPROPRIATE MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY EDUCATION?*

This study compared the mail questionnaire responses of 132 training directors and 79 clinical members of the American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy (AAMFT). The findings about preferred criteria for accreditation, training requirements, and attitudes toward major professional issues suggested several key differences between training directors and clinical members, as well as important similarities. These divergent and convergent trends are described and discussed.     

EDWIN CHADWICK AND THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME

"⃛Among all the administrative questions which you have touched (and they are both numerous and of the highest importance), there is hardly one on which you have not originated thoughts and suggestions of the greatest value ⃛"     

Prediction for generalized linear models

Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.Regression models are often used to make predictions. All the information needed is contained in the predictive distribution. However, this cannot be evaluated explicitly for most generalized linear models. We construct two approximations to this distribution and demonstrate their use on two sets of survival data, corresponding to the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care units and the survival times of leukaemia patients.