Young care leavers' expectations of their future: A question of time horizon

This paper investigates young care leavers' expectations of their future after discharge from care. The results are based on qualitative longitudinal data where 16‐ to 21‐year‐old care leavers (n = 15) were interviewed twice, first when still in care but planning for their discharge (T1) and the second time 6–9 months later (T2). The analysis using a general inductive approach showed that their expectations were dependent on the time horizon and that there was an obvious difference between the young informants' short‐ and long‐term expectations. Their short‐term expectations consisted of worries connected to their approaching discharge (at T1) and how to cope with challenges of everyday life after discharge from care (at T2). These results seem to echo negative outcomes shown in previous quantitative research. However, the informants' long‐term expectations provide a different picture, being mainly positive in both interviews (T1 and T2). The results are discussed from a life course perspective, where the informants' visions of their future are framed and understood in terms of the different stages of their transition process.     

Are Adult Patients More Tolerant of Treatment Risks Than Parents of Juvenile Patients?

Understanding patient-specific differences in risk tolerance for new treatments that offer improved efficacy can assist in making difficult regulatory and clinical decisions for new treatments that offer both the potential for greater effectiveness in relieving disease symptoms, but also risks of disabling or fatal side effects. The aim of this study is to elicit benefit-risk trade-off preferences for hypothetical treatments with varying efficacy and risk levels using a stated-choice (SC) survey. We derive estimates of "maximum acceptable risk" (MAR) that can help decisionmakers identify welfare-enhancing alternatives. In the case of children, parent caregivers are responsible for treatment decisions and their risk tolerance may be quite different than adult patients' own tolerance for treatment-related risks. We estimated and compared the willingness of Crohn's disease (CD) patients and parents of juvenile CD patients to accept serious adverse event (SAE) risks in exchange for symptom relief. The analyzed data were from 345 patients over the age of 18 and 150 parents of children under the age of 18. The estimation results provide strong evidence that adult patients and parents of juvenile patients are willing to accept tradeoffs between treatment efficacy and risks of SAEs. Parents of juvenile CD patients are about as risk tolerant for their children as adult CD patients are for themselves for improved treatment efficacy. SC surveys provide a systematic method for eliciting preferences for benefit-risk tradeoffs. Understanding patients' own risk perceptions and their willingness to accept risks in return for treatment benefits can help inform risk management decision making.     

A Jackknifed estimators for the negative binomial regression model

Shrinkage estimator is a commonly applied solution to the general problem caused by multicollinearity. Recently, the ridge regression (RR) estimators for estimating the ridge parameter k in the negative binomial (NB) regression have been proposed. The Jackknifed estimators are obtained to remedy the multicollinearity and reduce the bias. A simulation study is provided to evaluate the performance of estimators. Both mean squared error (MSE) and the percentage relative error (PRE) are considered as the performance criteria. The simulated result indicated that some of proposed Jackknifed estimators should be preferred to the ML method and ridge estimators to reduce MSE and bias.     

Influence measures based on confidence ellipsoids in general linear regression model with correlated regressors

In this paper, we investigated the Andrews–Pregibon (AP), COVRATIO and Cook–Weisberg (CW) statistics to determine the influential observations on the confidence ellipsoids in linear regression model with correlated errors and correlated regressors. A real example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are given to detect the effects of autocorrelation coefficient and ridge parameter on the AP, COVRATIO and CW statistics.     

Raising the legal gambling age in Finland: problem gambling prevalence rates in different age groups among past-year gamblers pre- and post-implementation

This article reports on the frequency of problem gambling, measured with the Lie/Bet instrument, in different age groups among Finnish past-year gamblers in 2011 (n = 2984) and 2014 (n = 2326). The data highlights the situation before, and three years after, the implementation of a raised minimum age limit for gambling from 15 to 18 years. The difference in problem gambling frequency when comparing all age groups was statistically significant in 2011, but not in 2014. A significantly lower frequency of problem gambling was found among 18–19-year-olds in 2014 (3.4%), compared to 2011 (16.3%). The results regarding problem gambling prevalence among 15–17-year-olds (8.0% in 2011, 0.0% in 2014) are somewhat inconclusive as the number of respondents fulfilling the criteria for problem gambling was zero in 2014, thus affecting the analysis. No statistically significant difference in problem gambling frequency was found among 20–21-year-olds (a group less affected by the policy implementation) – or other older age groups – between the survey years. While the findings should be viewed with caution, they do support recommendations regarding a minimum gambling age of 18 years or higher as an effective harm-minimization measure.     

An Extension of Sampford's Method for Unequal Probability Sampling

Abstract. Sampford's unequal probability sampling method is extended to the case that the inclusion probabilities do not sum to an integer. In this case, the sampling outcome is left open for exactly one randomly chosen unit and that unit gets a new inclusion probability. Three applications are presented. Two of them challenge traditional sampling routines. The simple Pareto sampling design, which was introduced by Rosén in 1997, is also extended. The extended Pareto design is shown to be close to the extended Sampford design.     

Immigrants and the public sector budget – accounting exercises for Sweden

Net contributions to the public sector budget in Sweden are investigated using large samples of foreign born and native born. The accounts build on various assumptions including that expenditures on public consumption are allocated according to the age of the person. The results indicate that during the period 1983 to 1992 net contributions of immigrants deteriorated. Upon arrival to Sweden, immigrants on average place a burden on the public sector budget but after a few years this no longer applies. Refugees initially put a larger burden on the public sector budget than other immigrants, but such a difference declines with years since immigration. Received: 11 March 1998/Accepted: 31 May 2000