When Can Scientific Studies Promote Consensus Among Conflicting Stakeholders?

While scientific studies may help conflicting stakeholders come to agreement on a best management option or policy, often they do not. We review the factors affecting trust in the efficacy and objectivity of scientific studies in an analytical‐deliberative process where conflict is present, and show how they may be incorporated in an extension to the traditional Bayesian decision model. The extended framework considers stakeholders who differ in their prior beliefs regarding the probability of possible outcomes (in particular, whether a proposed technology is hazardous), differ in their valuations of these outcomes, and differ in their assessment of the ability of a proposed study to resolve the uncertainty in the outcomes and their hazards—as measured by their perceived false positive and false negative rates for the study. The Bayesian model predicts stakeholder‐specific preposterior probabilities of consensus, as well as pathways for increasing these probabilities, providing important insights into the value of scientific information in an analytic‐deliberative decision process where agreement is sought. It also helps to identify the interactions among perceived risk and benefit allocations, scientific beliefs, and trust in proposed scientific studies when determining whether a consensus can be achieved. The article provides examples to illustrate the method, including an adaptation of a recent decision analysis for managing the health risks of electromagnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines.     

Using Markov Chains for Non-perennial Daily Streamflow Data Generation

The use of Markov chains to simulate non-perennial streamflow data is considered. A non-perennial stream may be thought as having three states, namely zero flow, increasing flow and decreasing flow, for which a three-state Markov chain can be constructed. Alternatively, two two-state Markov chains can be used, the first of which represents the existence and non-existence of flow, whereas the second deals with the increment and decrement in the flow for periods with flow. Probabilistic relationships between the two alternatives are derived. Their performances in simulating the state of the stream are compared on the basis of data from two different geographical regions in Turkey. It is concluded that both alternatives are capable of simulating the state of the stream.     

Restricted Two Parameter Ridge Estimator

In 2005 Lipovetsky and Conklin proposed an estimator, the two parameter ridge estimator (TRE), as an alternative to the ordinary least squares estimator (OLSE) and the ordinary ridge estimator (RE) in the presence of multicollinearity, and in 2006 Lipovetsky improved the two parameter model. In this paper, we introduce two new estimators, one of which is the modified two parameter ridge estimator (MTRE) defined by following Swindel's paper of 1976. The other one is the restricted two parameter ridge estimator (RTRE) which is derived by setting additional linear restrictions on the parameter vectors. This estimator is a generalization of the restricted least squares estimator (RLSE) and includes the restricted ridge estimator (RRE) proposed by Groß in 2003. A numerical example is provided and a simulation study is conducted for the comparisons of the RTRE with the OLSE, RLSE, RE, RRE and TRE.     

The effects of the proxy information on the iterative Stein-rule estimator of the disturbance variance

In a regression model with proxy variables, we consider the iterative estimator of the disturbance variance to obtain more precise estimates. In the formula of the estimator of the disturbance variance, the estimator is obtained by using Stein-rule (SR) estimator instead of OLS (ordinary least squares) estimator is called Iterative estimator of the disturbance variance. It is shown that, in a regression model with proxy variables the mean square error (MSE) of the iterative estimator of the disturbance variance is greater than the MSE of the disturbance variance related to the OLS estimator under certain conditions.     

A General Statistical Framework for Multistage Designs

Abstract. The efficiency of observational studies may be increased by applying multistage sampling designs. It is, however, not always transparent how to construct such a design to obtain increased efficiency. We here present a general statistical framework for describing and constructing multistage designs. We also provide tools for efficiency and cost‐efficiency comparisons, to facilitate the choice of sampling scheme. The comparisons are based on Fisher information matrices and the results are presented in graphs, where either efficiency or cost‐adjusted efficiency is plotted against a normalized measure of cost. The former curve resides in the unit square and is analogous to the receiver operating characteristic curve used for testing.     

CAN TRADE REALLY HURT? AN EMPIRICAL FOLLOW‐UP ON SAMUELSON'S CONTROVERSIAL PAPER

This paper investigates Samuelson's [Samuelson, P. A. “Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 2004, 135–46] argument that technical progress of the trade partner may hurt the home country. We illustrate this prospect in a simple Ricardian model for situations with outward knowledge spillovers. Within this framework Samuelson's Act II effects may occur. Based on industry level panel data for 17 OECD countries for the period 1973–2000 we show econometrically that the outflow of domestic knowledge via exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) to the rest of the world may have a negative impact on industry output in the home country. This is particularly so when exporting to technologically less advanced countries and, more specifically, China. (JEL F10, F11, F14, O30)     

Attachment Styles and Self‐Image in Turkish Adolescents

The purpose of this article is to examine the attachment styles and the relation of these styles to the self‐image in Turkish adolescents. The study included 378 adolescents (196 females and 182 males) from high schools with different socioeconomic status (SES) who were administered Relationship Scale Questionnaires and Offer Self‐Image Questionnaires. The findings indicate that adolescents from a low SES had significantly low scores on self‐image scales compared with those from high and middle SES. It was found that secure attachment patterns affect social relationships and superior adjustment aspects of self‐image positively. The results of this study show that attachment patterns play an important role in the development of the self‐image, which is a crucial psychological structure gained in adolescence.     

Collaboration in EU Framework Programmes – the case of the social sciences and humanities

The impact of the European Framework Programme (hereafter FP) projects is usually measured with reference to the possibilities offered for collaboration. In this research note we take a different perspective and explore the extent to which FPs have influenced the traditional performance of researchers and vice versa. The population reference for our study consists of the projects funded within the EU Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) between 2002 and 2006. Here, we have concentrated our analysis on the priority area of “citizens and governance in a knowledge-based society” (CIT).     

Difficulties in Diagnosing Sexual Abuse in Children with Condyloma Acuminata in Turkey

Human papillomavirus is responsible for anogenital warts and could be regarded as an indicator of possible sexual abuse in children. A genital wart was detected during an investigation of anti–hepatitis C virus positivity in a four-year-old male patient. No pathological findings of another sexually transmitted disease were found except complete cleft palate and circumferential lesions in the perianal region. No family member was anti-hepatitis C virus positive, but the patient's uncle and his wife had genital condylomata. Although detailed physical examination uncovered no other findings indicative of sexual abuse, suspicion of abuse could not be eliminated. Therefore, we wanted to draw the attention of health professionals to the association of anogenital warts and sexual abuse.     

Using wavelets for data generation

Wavelets are proposed as a non-parametric data generation tool. The idea behind the suggested method is decomposition of data into its details and later reconstruction by summation of the details randomly to generate new data. A Haar wavelet is used because of its simplicity. The method is applied to annual and monthly streamflow series taken from Turkey and USA. It is found to give good results for non-skewed data, as well as in the presence of auto-correlation.