Structural shifts in the employment of foreign workers in Austria

The full economic importance of immigration becomes clear only when one examines the concentration of immigrant workers in certain industries and occupations, and this is done in the case of Austria to show the degree of segmentation of the labor market between indigenous and foreign labor. In the course of the 1960s the employment of foreign labor gained importance in Austria. As a consequence, bilateral agreements with the major recruiting countries were made, e.g., with Spain in 1962 and 1969, with Turkey in 1964, and with Yugoslavia in 1966. The reason for the increasing demand for foreign labor was the short supply of indigenous labor due to increasing participation rates and strong economic growth. The demand-pull for foreign labor gained momentum with the onset of the economic boom in 1970, so that by the end of 1973 the number of foreign workers had doubled in comparison to 1970. The 226,800 foreign workers accounted for 8.7% of total employment. The 1974-75 recession and the weak economic development ever since resulted in a decreasing demand for labor. At the same time, the supply of indigenous labor increased as a consequence of a demographic effect and because of increasing participation rates of women. From 1981 to the present, foreign employment decreased again due to the unusually long period of economic stagnation. During 1983, 145,300 foreign workers were engaged, i.e., 5.3% of total employment. The structure for foreign employment now differs greatly from that in the 1960s. The share of women in foreign employment has increased steadily from some 20% in the early 1960s to 31% in 1973 and 40% in 1983 -- a value comparable to the Austrian female share in employment. The reduction of foreign employment since 1973 affected, above all, Yugoslav men. the share of Yugoslavs in foreign employment decreased from 196,300 or 79% in 1973 to 92,200 or 61.7% in 1983. With the duration of foreign employment rising, the disribution of foreign labor over economic branches increased. In the early 1960s the employment of foreign workers was concentrated in 3 branches -- the construction sector (32% of all foreign workers), metal industries (16%), and textile industries (10%). In 1982 only 1/3 of all foreign workers were still employed in these branches as an infiltration by foreign labor had taken place in all sectors. The services sector showed the greatest increase in foreign employment since 1975. There has never been as strong a concentration of 1 nationality in a particular economic branch as in Switzerland, Germany, or France. Case studies in Austria reveal that it was an explicit policy for firms (and also unions and entrepreneur representatives) not to depend on only 1 nationality of foreign workers. According to the case studies, about 1/3 of all foreign workers today occupy jobs which are in direct competition with indigenous labor. Another 1/3 fill jobs which are complementary to indigenous labor. For the remainder it is difficult to say to what extent they belong to one or the other segment of the labor market, because there is no information available on the occupational job structure.     

Poisson regression with misclassified counts: application to cervical cancer

"Errors in disease classification can give misleading inferences for covariate effects when the probability of error is itself related to the covariates. More accurate inferences are possible using supplemental data on both true and fallible disease counts at various covariate levels. We present a method for incorporating such supplemental data into disease rate regression and use it to show that, although observed intercountry differences in European cervical cancer mortality rates are exaggerated by errors in death certification, they are not completely explained by such errors." The data concern Belgium, England and Wales, France, and Italy.     

Population growth,farmland, and the long-run standard of living

This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased.The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed.That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.This paper benefitted from being presented in earlier draft at a Population Association of America meeting, to the Economic History workshop at the University of Illinois, and to a seminar of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population in New Delhi. We appreciate valuable comments on earlier drafts from Stanley Engerman, E. L. Jones, William McNeill, and two anonymous referees. Gunter Steinmann acknowledges financial support from the Volkswagen Foundation and a travel grant from Fulbright Commission.     

Capital accumulation,endogenous population growth,and Easterlin cycles

In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this strange optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.We wish to thank A. Novak for helpful assistance and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Financial support by the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P6601 is acknowledged.     

Society,family, and gender in Santa Fe,New Granada,until the end of the colony

The author examines family structure in Santa Fe, the capital of New Granada, a Spanish colony that included Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela. The focus is on the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. He finds that social class structure was closely related to ethnic group and skin color, and that the sex ratio was biased toward women. Women also headed nearly 50% of all households. Data are mainly from the 1801 smallpox census.     

Recent migrations from Morocco to Spain

"This study addressed the problem of the Moroccan immigration into Spain within the context of South-North movements, focusing on analyzing provisional data from the last immigrant regularization in the country completed during the end months of 1991."     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

Setting health priorities: a review of concepts and approaches

The setting of health priorities is primarily concerned with the equitable distribution of resources and is now more than ever an important part of strategic planning within the National Health Service (NHS). The basic information which can be used to assist in such decision-making and the process by which different agencies become involved are important aspects of priority-setting; this article is based on a major review of the research literature on these aspects and provides a discussion and an analysis of experience within health and other fields. From this material a number of possible approaches to priority-setting are identified and discussed. The article concludes that, before it can be decided how priorities should be set in the future, outstanding questions about how far rational approaches are feasible, about who is to be involved and what role they should play, and about how far such decisions are to be taken nationally or locally will need further consideration.