The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries

Beginning in 2000, in economically advanced countries, a remarkable bifurcation in fertility levels has emerged, with one group in the moderate range of period total fertility rates, about 1.9, and the other at 1.3. The upper branch consists of countries in Northern and Western Europe, Oceania and the United States; the lower branch includes Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe, and East and Southeast Asia. A review of the major theories for low-fertility countries reveals that none of them would have predicted this specific bifurcation. We argue that those countries with fertility levels close to replacement level have institutional arrangements, and related policies, that make it easier, not easy, for women to combine the worker and mother roles. The institutional details are quite different across countries, suggesting that multiple combinations of institutional arrangements and policies can lead to the same country-level fertility outcome. Canada, the only exception to this bifurcation, illustrates the importance of the different institutional structures in Québec compared to the rest of Canada.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.     

Structure and agency in development-induced forced migration: the case of Brazil’s Belo Monte Dam

This paper examines how structure and agency interact to shape forced migration outcomes. Specifically, I ask how structural factors such as compensation policies as well as social, financial, and human capital may either foster or constrain migration aspirations and capabilities. I use longitudinal, semi-structured interview data to study forced migration among farmers displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Results from baseline interviews indicate that nearly all community members aspired to purchase rural land in the region and maintain livelihoods as cacao farmers or cattle ranchers. Constraints limiting the ability to attain aspirations included strict requirements on land titles for properties, delays in receiving compensation, rising land prices, and the lack of power to negotiate for better compensation. Despite these constraints, most migrants succeeded in attaining aspirations, as they were able to mobilize resources such as social networks, financial capital, skills, and knowledge. These findings highlight the importance of considering the relationship between structure and agency within forced migration research. I conclude by discussing how the findings may inform resettlement policies for future cases of development- or environment-induced forced migration.     

Disasters,migrations, and the unintended consequences of urbanization: What’s the harm in getting out of harm’s way?

Under many circumstances, the global rural-to-urban migration trend may be increasingly adopted as a short-term coping strategy to shifting ecologies and natural disasters. While offering certain benefits from macro-level economic and public health perspectives, these migrations may also have unintended psychological consequences that are not easily understood through traditional disaster studies or cost–benefit analyses. If the goal of disaster and climate change research is to promote successful adaptation, then the long-term psychological well-being of people who have survived disaster and either adapted in situ or migrated into urban environments, is paramount. This article integrates research on disasters and climate change-induced migration with emerging perspectives from environmental psychology and the psychology of natural disasters to consider the potential costs of particular migration scenarios. We apply this analysis to the case of Shishmaref, Alaska, a rural Iñupiat community on the northwest coast of Alaska facing habitual flooding disasters linked to climate change. Findings from Shishmaref illustrate the cultural vitality of subsistence landscapes and the potential health risks of compromised human–ecological relationships due to migration and/or displacement. Recommendations for policy makers and researchers are offered for promoting long-term well-being among affected individuals and communities.     

Climate,migration, and the local food security context: introducing Terra Populus

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population–environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate–migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments.     

Family Structure and Children’s Economic Well-Being: Incorporating Same-Sex Cohabiting Mother Families

Research on family structure and child well-being rarely includes children in same-sex parent families, a notable omission since 28 % of female–female couple households contain children. Using the 2010–2013 pooled current population survey (CPS), we examined children’s economic well-being by family structure. These data were ideal for this study because they included a sizeable number of children in same-sex cohabiting mother families and the CPS measured both official and supplemental poverty, incorporating the cohabiting partner. Using the official poverty measure, children in same-sex cohabiting mother families were more likely to be poor than their counterparts in either different-sex cohabiting or married parent families. Using the supplemental poverty measure, children in same-sex mother families were no more likely to be poor than children in all other types of different-sex two-parent families.     

Is There a Link Between Poverty and Food Security?

The study examines cointegration and causal relationship between FDI, terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan using quarterly frequencies for the period 1988–2010. For empirical analysis data is divided into two sub-periods i.e. pre 9/11 (1988–2001) and post 9/11 (2002–2010) periods. The results show that long run cointegration holds between FDI, terrorism and economic growth. Granger causality results indicate that there is bidirectional short and long run causality between economic growth and FDI for both sub-samples. These findings are supported by variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The findings suggest applicability of modernization theory to explain FDI and economic growth relationship. The results also reveal that terrorism has a deteriorating impact on FDI.     

On the computation of the noncentral <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> and noncentral beta distribution

Unfortunately many of the numerous algorithms for computing the comulative distribution function (cdf) and noncentrality parameter of the noncentral F and beta distributions can produce completely incorrect results as demonstrated in the paper by examples. Existing algorithms are scrutinized and those parts that involve numerical difficulties are identified. As a result, a pseudo code is presented in which all the known numerical problems are resolved. This pseudo code can be easily implemented in programming language C or FORTRAN without understanding the complicated mathematical background. Symbolic evaluation of a finite and closed formula is proposed to compute exact cdf values. This approach makes it possible to check quickly and reliably the values returned by professional statistical packages over an extraordinarily wide parameter range without any programming knowledge. This research was motivated by the fact that a very useful table for calculating the size of detectable effects for ANOVA tables contains suspect values in the region of large noncentrality parameter values compared to the values obtained by Patnaik’s 2-moment central-F approximation. The cause is identified and the corrected form of the table for ANOVA purposes is given. The accuracy of the approximations to the noncentral-F distribution is also discussed. The authors wish to thank Mr. Richárd Király for his preliminary work. The authors are grateful to the Editor and Associate Editor of STCO and the unknown reviewers for their helpful suggestions.     

Nest predators,but not nest survival,differ between adjacent urban habitats

Growing human populations make it imperative for ecologists to identify strategies to conserve biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes, such as cities. Effects of urbanization on birds are particularly well-studied, but questions remain regarding the best conservation approaches. Debate about the relative utility of focusing conservation efforts on nature reserves versus developed lands has focused largely on comparing species abundance or presence, with few studies addressing underlying behavioral or demographic mechanisms. Here we evaluated differences in avian reproductive success in nature reserves and matrix habitats to test the assumption that nest predation is lower within areas protected from development. Specifically, we investigated 1) whether nest survival differed in replicated pairs of forest parks and residential neighborhoods and 2) whether differences in nest survival were associated with changes in which species most frequently depredated nests. From April–August 2007–2014, we monitored nests of two native birds, American robin (Turdus migratorius) and northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), and video-documented nest predators in paired forest-matrix habitats in the Columbus, Ohio metropolitan area. We found similar rates of nest survival in the two habitats for both robins (Χ²₁?=?0.715, p?=?0.398, n?=?741 nests) and cardinals (Χ²₁?=?0.926, p?=?0.336, n?=?1156 nests), but interactions between predators and prey differed. In particular, domestic cats (Felis catus) were over five times as likely to depredate cardinal nests in matrix habitats versus forest parks (Χ²₁?=?7.24, simulated p?=?0.010; n_forest?=?3, n_matrix?=?7). Our results suggest that at least in some circumstances, nest success of native birds may be equivalent between nature reserves and adjacent residential matrix habitats, and thus residential neighborhoods may contribute positively to bird conservation in urban landscapes.     

What shapes plant and animal diversity on urban golf courses?

Recent concern over increasing loss of biodiversity has prompted considerable interest in the role of urban green spaces as reservoirs of local biodiversity. This study assessed the diversity of three indicator taxa - plants, ants and birds - on golf courses spanning a wide range of environmental variation in terms of climate, elevation, course age, size and connectivity to native woodland. Species richness and community composition was further compared between contrasting on-course habitat types that reflect different management intensities. We identified a set of taxon-specific environmental correlates indicating an intricate interplay of landscape- and local-scale variables that affect local species diversity. Our results show that floristic diversity is positively associated with the amount of rainfall, whereas ant and bird diversity are related to local-scale factors, particularly the number of trees and the size of water features on a site. The amount of on-course native habitat was a strong predictor of plant and ant diversity and was also associated with the number of unique species at the site level; this reinforces the value of remnant habitat patches as local biodiversity reservoirs that represent mini hot-spots in an otherwise species-poor urban landscape. Community composition for all three taxa differed markedly between non-playing and playing areas, with boundary and remnant habitats generally having more diverse, species-rich communities. Our results suggest that local floral and faunal biodiversity on urban golf courses can be enhanced by creating woody non-playing areas and, especially, by preserving, restoring or expanding remnant habitats.