行政国家的危机治理——9·11恐怖袭击和2008年金融危机

9·11恐怖袭击和2008年金融危机中,美国政府的危机治理和危机立法有相似的表现:宽泛的政治过程而非宪法上的限制等因素在两次事件中都发挥着作用,产生了相似的危机治理模式;在这一模式中,国会向行政部门赋予强大的新的权力。这一模式通过卡尔·施密特关于立法的理论得到更好的解释,更优于麦迪逊理论。但在危机政治的广泛制约因素中,布什政府在9·11之后比在金融危机中对其权力的攫取更加激进。这一方面是因为布什政府在2001—2008年间逐步丧失了其公信力和群众的拥护,另一方面也是由于金融监管体制的分裂局面。     

A Simple Approach to Fitting Bayesian Survival Models

There has been much recent work on Bayesian approaches to survival analysis, incorporating features such as flexible baseline hazards, time-dependent covariate effects, and random effects. Some of the proposed methods are quite complicated to implement, and we argue that as good or better results can be obtained via simpler methods. In particular, the normal approximation to the log-gamma distribution yields easy and efficient computational methods in the face of simple multivariate normal priors for baseline log-hazards and time-dependent covariate effects. While the basic method applies to piecewise-constant hazards and covariate effects, it is easy to apply importance sampling to consider smoother functions.     

Midlife and older displaced workers: A comparison of predisplacement and new earnings

The economic consequences of business closings and worker layoffs are of great concern to today's work force. The study compares earnings of 755 workers previous to displacement to 422 displaced workers with new earnings. Variables are identified using the data supplement of the 1988Current Populations Survey: Displaced Workers. Displaced workers employed in professional and white-collar positions have more favorable predisplacement earnings and new earnings than workers from other job sectors, but displaced workers who are homeowners and those who have health care coverage before and following job displacement have a decline in earnings. Displaced workers with some high school education and workers with 30 to 39 years of job tenure also experience decreased wages. Overall, displacement of American workers stifles the economy and negatively influences the human capital of the nation's work force. Her major research interests include displaced worker issues, work and family policy, and the economics of aging. Her major research interests include labor force participation of midlife and older persons.     

Your Money or Your Life: Behavioral and Emotional Predictors of Money Pathology

This study sought to examine self-reportedemotional and behavioral correlates of money pathology,defined as inappropriate behavior with respect to moneyand associated material goods. In all, 267 British adult subjects completed a battery ofquestionnaires including Rubinstein's (1981) extensivePsychology Today survey on money and Forman's ipsativemeasures that describe five Money Pathology Scales(miser, spendthrift, tycoon, bargain hunter, gambler),an overall pathology scale combining the five and hisshort moneysanity measure. The former measure was factoranalyzed and selected factor scores regressed on to the moneysanity measure along withdemographic measures in order to attempt to establishwhich individual difference factors best predicted thedifferent types of money pathology. Thus females were more extravagant, prone to depression, but lesslikely to take moral risks for money, while richer, moreright-wing people tended to be more materialistic. Thosewith overall less money sanity tended more to believe luck and dishonesty were moreimportant in making money; were self-denying andeconomically pessimistic, and had powerful negativeemotions like anger and anxiety around money. Multiple regressions on to the money types showed thatbetween 15 and 30% of the variance could be explainedand accounted for, by the selected independent variables(demographic, religious and political belief, illness, and more general attitudes towardwealth). Demographic variables like age, and negativeemotions about money were consistent predictors of moneypathology. Results are discussed in terms of the small, but growing literature on the psychologyof money (Furnham, 1997; Furnham & Argyle,1998).     

Is Who Delivers the Treatment More Important than the Treatment Itself? The Role of The Therapist in Common Factors

In this article, we discuss the role of the therapist in change in couple and family therapy. We argue that the therapist is a key change ingredient in most successful therapy. We situate our discussion in the common factors debate and show how both broad and narrow common factor views involve the therapist as a central force. We review the research findings on the role of the therapist, highlight the strengths and weaknesses of this literature, and provide directions for future research. We then use this review as a foundation for our recommendations for theory integration, training, and practice.