Migration and Development: Mexico and Turkey

Mexico and Turkey are among the world's leading labor‐sending nations, with about 11 million Mexican‐born and 3.5 million Turkish‐born persons abroad in 2006. After two decades of uneven growth and job creation as well as persisting poverty and inequality, there are debates within both countries asking whether economic reforms have gone far enough to put the economy on a stable footing for sustained and equitable growth, or whether emigration (pressure) will continue. Some Mexicans are seeking to deepen North American Free Trade Agreement, while most Turks support entry into the European Union as a way of speeding economic growth.     

Economic and Social Determinants of Human Development: A New Perspective

The aim of this work is to determine the factors affecting development, not only the economic ones, which play a central role in economic literature, but also social. To do so we have used a wide sample of countries and have estimated a panel data for 171 of those that have been members of the United Nations for a period of 16 years (from 1995 to 2010 inclusive). The results obtained allow us to conclude that fight against poverty, provision of basic infrastructure, and investment in greater democracy, greater stability and less corruption, have, in all cases, a positive effect on human development in these countries.     

Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models

In model-based estimation of unobserved components, the minimum mean squared error estimator of the noise component is different from white noise. In this article, some of the differences are analyzed. It is seen how the variance of the component is always underestimated, and the smaller the noise variance, the larger the underestimation. Estimators of small-variance noise components will also have large autocorrelations. Finally, in the context of an application, the sample autocorrelation function of the estimated noise is seen to perform well as a diagnostic tool, even when the variance is small and the series is of relatively short length.     

The industrial production index of Japan and South Korea: a dynamic relationship

In this paper, a dynamic relationship between the industrial production index (IPI) of Japan and the IPI of South Korea is presented. With the help of a VAR(2) model, and using the terminology of Granger causality, it is shown that the IPI of Japan Granger causes the IPI of South Korea, but the IPI of South Korea Granger does not cause the IPI of Japan. Other aspects of this dynamic relationship between these two indices are presented as well.