The estimation of population density of the green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix cinticeps Uhler, in spring field by the capture recapture method

Summary The population parameters of green rice leafhopper,Nephotettix cincticeps in hibernated generation was estimated by the capture-recapture method on the gramineous weeds of resting paddy field from late in April to mid-May, 1962–1965. The difficulty of applying the capture-recapture method to this insect is caused from the low density and the low activity of the leafhopper, so that it is necessary to make the suitable plan of capture-recapture series and to construct the special method to detect the population parameters. The number of adults differed greatly among the years and among the plots in the same year. But, in general, the density was relatively high late in April, and decreased rapidly in May. The number of males was higher than that of females late in April, but decreased rapidly to become lower in May. The sampling efficiency with sweep-net depends upon the many factors, such as weather and floristic conditions; especially the atmospheric temperature and the force of wind are considered to affect greatly to the efficiency. In general, low temperature and strong wind are the cause of low sampling efficiency. Contribution from JIBP-PT No. 20.     

Emergence and evolution of co-operatives for elderly care in Japan

To cope with the unprecedented speed of aging, Japan launched the quasi-market reforms in social welfare policy and the long-term care insurance system introduced competition amongst various kinds of service providers in 2000. Co-operatives have been actively involved in service provision for elderly care combining their business dimension with associational one. There existed distinct patterns of emergence and evolution of co-operative elderly care from grass roots. Consumer co-ops started to train consumer members as care-givers and entered the care business while health co-ops made a substantial investment to build facilities and manpower for elderly care as a natural extension. Workers co-operatives were organized to provide elderly care to the increasing number of care receivers.     

A discrete/continuous choice model on a nonconvex budget set

Decreasing block rate pricing is a nonlinear price system often used for public utility services. Residential gas services in Japan and the United Kingdom are provided under this price schedule. The discrete/continuous choice approach is used to analyze the demand under decreasing block rate pricing. However, the nonlinearity problem, which has not been examined in previous studies, arises because a consumer’s budget set (a set of affordable consumption amounts) is nonconvex, and hence, the resulting model includes highly nonlinear functions. To address this problem, we propose a feasible, efficient method of demand estimation on the nonconvex budget. The advantages of our method are as follows: (i) the construction of an Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm with an efficient blanket based on the Hermite–Hadamard integral inequality and the power-mean inequality, (ii) the explicit consideration of the (highly nonlinear) separability condition, which often makes numerical likelihood maximization difficult, and (iii) the introduction of normal disturbance into the discrete/continuous choice model on the nonconvex budget set. The proposed method is applied to estimate the Japanese residential gas demand function and evaluate the effect of price schedule changes as a policy experiment.     

八旗再考

八旗制度是了解清朝国家结构与特点的关键所在。本文通过探讨八旗的扩展和多样性,以及入关后东北地区八旗设置的背景和目的等问题,对八旗制度的整体状况和特性进行进一步分析。     

Clinical trial of treatment with saikokaryukotsuboreito for eugonadal patients with late-inset hypogonadism-related symptoms

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of saikokaryukotsuboreito (SKRBT), which is widely used for a variety of clinical conditions, neuropsychiatric disorders, for patients with LOH-related symptoms. Twenty-two eugonadal patients over 40 years of age with LOH-related symptoms were included in this study. SKRBT was given orally to these patients three times daily to a total of 7.5 g/day for more than two months. Laboratory and endocrinological profiles were reviewed, and LOH symptoms were judged by means of several health assessment instruments such as the Aging Males' Symptoms (AMS) scale, Self-rated Depression Scale (SDS), International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS), and King's Health Questionnaire (KHQ). Total AMS scores and AMS subscores were significantly decreased after the treatment. The KHQ, general health perception and impact on life scores were also significantly decreased, although no significant improvement was observed in other KHQ factors or the SDS score or IPSS. The serum concentrations of testosterone fractions did not change with treatment. Laboratory values did not change, and no adverse effects were identified after treatment. We conclude that SKRBT may be considered for treatment of patients with LOH-related symptoms for eugonadal patients.     

Exact Estimation of Demand Functions under Block-Rate Pricing

This article proposes an exact estimation of demand functions under block-rate pricing by focusing on increasing block-rate pricing. This is the first study that explicitly considers the separability condition which has been ignored in previous literature. Under this pricing structure, the price changes when consumption exceeds a certain threshold and the consumer faces a utility maximization problem subject to a piecewise-linear budget constraint. Solving this maximization problem leads to a statistical model in which model parameters are strongly restricted by the separability condition. In this article, by taking a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to properly estimate the demand function. We find, however, that the convergence of the distribution of simulated samples to the posterior distribution is slow, requiring an additional scale transformation step for parameters to the Gibbs sampler. These proposed methods are then applied to estimate the Japanese residential water demand function.     

Contrasting effects of urbanization on arboreal and ground-dwelling land snails: role of trophic interactions and habitat fragmentation

Urbanization generally reduces wildlife populations. Individual species responses, however, are often highly variable, and such variability can be explained by differences in species ecological traits. To examine this hypothesis, we focused on two co-occurring land snails, Ezohelix gainesi and Euhadra brandtii sapporo; the former is ground-dwelling and the latter is arboreal. We first estimated their population densities at nine sites distributed along an urbanization gradient: three were located in continuous natural forests, three at the edge of natural forests, and the rest in small isolated forests in urban areas. As a result, the ground-dwelling E. gainesi occurred at highest density in urban forests, followed by forest edges and continuous forests. By contrast, the arboreal E. b. sapporo occurred at highest density in continuous forests, but declined in forest edges and urban forests. We then conducted manipulative field experiments to quantify changes in predation pressure on these species. Ground-tethered E. gainesi and E. b. sapporo were repeatedly predated upon by forest-living mammals in continuous forests, but their survival rates increased in forest edges and urban forests. By contrast, canopy-tethered E. b. sapporo maintained high survival rates in all three forest types. The results indicate that a lack of mammalian predators enables ground-dwelling species to occur at high densities in urban forests, whereas the arboreal species was not affected by this predator relaxation effect. The combination of species-specific behavioural traits and changes in predator communities across an urbanization gradient has important effects on the biodiversity of urban ecosystems.

     

Repeating probability of authors with retracted scientific publications

Both the scientific community and the general public have expressed concern over scientific misconduct. The number of retracted articles has increased dramatically over the past 20 years and now comprises about .02% of the 2 million articles published each year. Retraction of publications available in large public databases can be analyzed as an objective measure for scientific misconduct and errors. In this project, we analyzed retractions of scientific publications using the Web of Science (WoS) and PubMed databases. We found that a power law is applicable to distributions of retracting authors and retracted publications with exponents of about ?.6 and ?3.0, respectively. Application of a power-law model for retracted publications implies that retraction is not a random event. Analysis of the retraction distributions suggests that a small fraction (1–2%) of retracting authors with ≧5 retractions are responsible for around 10% of retraction. The probabilities for their repeating retraction are calculated using a statistical model: 3–5% likelihood of repeat retraction for authors with a single retraction at five years after the latest retraction and 26–37% for authors with five retractions at five years after the latest retraction. By focusing on those with repeated retractions, this analysis could contribute to identification of measures to reduce such repetition of retractions.     

A new challenge to economic science: Global model simulation

The FUGI (Futures of Global Interdependence) global modeling system has been developed as a scientific policy modeling and future simulation tool of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy co-ordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the global economy co-existing on the planet Earth in the ever changing universe. The FUGI global model M200 classifies the world into 200 countries/regions where each national/regional model is globally interdependent. Each national/regional model has nine subsystems as population, foods, energy, environment, economic development, peace and security, human right, healthcare and quality of life (IT revolution). This is a super complex dynamic system model using integrated multidisciplinary systems analysis where number of structural equations is over 170,000. Economic model as a core includes major economic variables such as production of GDP, employment, expenditures of GDP, income distribution, prices, money, interest rates and financial assets, government finance, international balance of payments, international finance, foreign exchange rates and development indicators.The purpose of this article is twofold, namely to provide information on a new frontier science of economics: global model simulation as well as appropriate policy exercise for sustainable development of the interdependent global economy. The world economy is facing “green” energy revolution to change from fossil to create alternative energy and energy saving technology against sky rocketing higher oil prices. Japan takes a lead in this field of technology innovation. Under such circumstances, Japan should take an initiative to create a new peaceful world through not only harmonized adjustments of Japanese economic policy but also wise cosmic mind to promote human solidarity with the ever changing nature will be desirable to adjust orbit of the fluctuated global economy. Japan should challenge for a new strategy to accelerate economic growth rates by “CO₂ reducing environment investment” based on technology innovations.     

Life expectancy, money, and growth

We examine the effect of an increase in life expectancy on portfolio choices of individuals and, thereby, on economic growth in a simple endogenous growth model populated by overlapping generations, in which money is introduced based on the money-in-the-utility-function approach. It is shown that an increase in longevity raises the balanced growth rate and lowers the inflation rate, offsetting the Tobin effect, if spillovers from accumulated capital to labor productivity sufficiently raise wage income and real savings, and, if not, it may retard economic growth and aggravate inflation. Under plausible conditions, the former will be the case.