The Role of Survey Data in Microsimulation Models for Social Policy Analysis

Questions about the impact of social policies cannot be answered solely on the basis of official statistics made available in tabular format. The access to microdata allows policy analysts to answer these questions with a larger set of analytical tools, in particular microsimulation models. This paper examines the interface between survey data and microsimulation models. We review different types of microsimulation models (static and dynamic) and their data requirements. We then restrict the attention to survey-based microdata, and examine issues in survey design, questionnaire content, data quality, and dissemination policy that are important from the perspective of microsimulation.     

Advances in estimation by the item sum technique using auxiliary information in complex surveys

To collect sensitive data, survey statisticians have designed many strategies to reduce nonresponse rates and social desirability response bias. In recent years, the item count technique has gained considerable popularity and credibility as an alternative mode of indirect questioning survey, and several variants of this technique have been proposed as new needs and challenges arise. The item sum technique (IST), which was introduced by Chaudhuri and Christofides (Indirect questioning in sample surveys, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2013) and Trappmann et al. (J Surv Stat Methodol 2:58–77, 2014), is one such variant, used to estimate the mean of a sensitive quantitative variable. In this approach, sampled units are asked to respond to a two-list of items containing a sensitive question related to the study variable and various innocuous, nonsensitive, questions. To the best of our knowledge, very few theoretical and applied papers have addressed the IST. In this article, therefore, we present certain methodological advances as a contribution to appraising the use of the IST in real-world surveys. In particular, we employ a generic sampling design to examine the problem of how to improve the estimates of the sensitive mean when auxiliary information on the population under study is available and is used at the design and estimation stages. A Horvitz–Thompson-type estimator and a calibration-type estimator are proposed and their efficiency is evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study. Using simulation experiments, we show that estimates obtained by the IST are nearly equivalent to those obtained using “true data” and that in general they outperform the estimates provided by a competitive randomized response method. Moreover, variance estimation may be considered satisfactory. These results open up new perspectives for academics, researchers and survey practitioners and could justify the use of the IST as a valid alternative to traditional direct questioning survey modes.     

The sovereign crisis and Italy’s potential output

We evaluate the effects of the European sovereign crisis on Italian potential output (natural output, in the absence of nominal rigidities) by simulating a New Keynesian model. Our results are as follows. First, the 2011–2013 recession subtracted 1.6 percentage points from potential output growth and widened the output gap. Second, the 2013 reforms limited the reduction in output capacity to 1.4 points and enhanced long-run growth by 3. Third, once a balanced budget is achieved in the medium term, reductions in either labor or capital income taxes would boost potential output growth by 0.2 points per year.     

Parent–Child Communicational Characteristics: A Comparison Study between Subjects from Post-Divorce and Intact Nuclear Families

ABSTRACT

The occurrence of divorce seems to have impact on parent–child communication, with subsequent implications on the children well-being and development. The present study aims to analyze the influence that divorce has on parent–child communication comparing 102 participants from post-divorced families and 100 participants from intact nuclear families. Measures consisted of a sociodemographic questionnaire and Perception Scale of Parenting Communication. Despite literature indicators, the main findings reveal the absence of significant statistical differences between both family structures, concerning to parent–child communication. Overall, it was registered some statistically significant differences concerning to specific divorce variables. These findings demystifying the idea that post-divorce families establish less positive communication patterns when compared with intact nuclear families.     

Creencias y expectativas respecto de la consulta médica: Un análisis de diferencias culturales

Resumen

Se compararon 102 mujeres del área metropolitana de los Angeles divididas en tres grupos según su grado de aculturación (mejico-americanas vs. anglo-americanas). Las variables consideradas se refirieron a las expectativas respecto al médico en contextos terapéuticos. Se consideraron las puntuaciones de tres medidas: La puntuación total en expectativas respecto del médico, las puntuaciones respecto a las expectativas referentes al comportamiento afectivo del médico y las puntuaciones respecto a las expectativas de tratamiento concreto. Los análisis de los resultados y el control de diversas variables tales como edad, gravedad de la enfermedad, etc., muestran la ausencia de diferencias interculturales en lo que las mujeres de la muestra esperan del médico. Si estos resultados se confirman obligarían a identificar más claramente cuándo son importantes las diferencias de aculturación y cuándo no lo son.     

Cuando los delitos son episodios sociales

Resumen

En este trabajo se estudia la percepción del delito desde la perspectiva de los episodios sociales. Los objetivos más importantes de nuestra investigación fueron: a) aislar y comparar las dimensiones que subyacen a la percepción del delito en tres grupos de sujetos: delincuentes institucionalizados, profesionales del sistema penal y grupo de personas no vinculadas al sistema penal; y b) ver si existen diferencias en la percepción de tres de los tipos de delitos establecidos en el Código Penal español. La muestra estuvo compuesta por un total de 272 sujetos, todos ellos varones, procedentes de los tres grupos en estudio. Las puntuaciones dadas por estos sujetos a 22 episodios delictivos fueron sometidas a escalamiento multidimensional. Se obtuvo un espacio multidimensional de cuatro dimensiones para cada uno de los grupos y se constataron diferencias entre ellos. Las puntuaciones de los episodios en cada dimensión permitieron discriminar de forma significativa entre los tres tipos de delitos. Los resultados se discuten integrando la perspectiva de los episodios sociales y la teoría de la atribución.     

Estimation of Covariate Effects With Current Status Data and Differential Mortality

The assessment of the impact that socioeconomic determinants have on the prevalence of certain chronic conditions reported by respondents in population surveys must confront two problems. First, the self-reports could be in error (false positives and false negatives). Second, those reporting are a selected sample of those who ever experience the problem, and this selection is heavily influenced by excess mortality attributable to the condition being reported. In this article, we use a combination of empirical data and microsimulation to (a) assess the magnitude of the bias attributable to the selection problem, and (b) suggest an adjustment procedure that corrects for this bias. We find that the proposed adjustment procedure considerably reduces the bias arising from differential mortality.     

Incidence, Depth and Severity of Children in Poverty

Recently, the first ever estimate of the number of children living poverty in developing countries was undertaken. The incidence of child poverty was estimated by establishing how many children suffer severe deprivation in at least one out of seven indicators which are internationally recognized as their rights as well as constitutive of poverty. This is a major step forward in the analysis of poverty. In this paper, we generalize these findings on the incidence of children living in poverty by exploring how to estimate the depth and severity of child poverty. Two countries can have the same proportion of children living in poverty, however, the actual plight of children could be very different depending on how many deprivations, on average, children suffer. In addition, even if they suffer from the same average number of deprivations, these deprivation could be the same for all children or be very unevenly distributed. We show how these considerations can be used to estimate the depth and severity of poverty. We use regional data to provide applied examples of this methodology. The method proposed in this paper is similar to the one used to estimate the incidence, depth and severity of income poverty. The paper also offers some possible generalizations and ways forward for future research.     

Legislation and the population program

This article examines the existing laws and pending bills that pertain to the Philippine Population Program. The Presidential Decree No. 79 of 1972 authorized the nationwide promotion of all acceptable contraceptive methods and the use of clinics, pharmacies, and commercial distribution channels for the purpose. Up to the 1960s, importation of materials intended to prevent human conception was prohibited under the Philippine Tariff and Customs Code. Abortion is still classified as a crime under the Revised Penal Code; the Tariff and Customs Code prohibits the importation of articles to be used for unlawful abortion. There is a move at the Batasan to raise the minimum age for marriage. Divorce is not allowed in the Philippines, except among Muslims. Legal separation is allowed, where each spouse may live separately from the other but may not remarry while the other is still alive. The population program, in curbing population growth, hopes to somehow alleviate the poverty situation and the many problems it breeds, including child exploitation. Laws on public welfare and social security complement population efforts in the same way that child welfare laws do. Overall, it is hoped that many more moves will be taken to strengthen the family, protect and enrich the child, and give everyone a chance to develop and earn a decent living.     

Understanding multi-methodology: Evaluating the perceived impact of mixing methods for group budgetary decisions

This paper reports on the design and implementation of a multi-methodology intervention intended to support a budget prioritisation decision by a multi-organisational group tasked with tackling the problem of teenage pregnancy in an English borough. The intervention approach involved the combined use of cognitive/causal mapping and a multi-criteria decision analysis method to develop and prioritise a number of projects aimed at alleviating issues associated with teenage pregnancy. The paper describes and discusses the process of developing and applying the intervention approach, and provides an evaluation of its perceived impact by the client group. Drawing on the rich seam of data gathered over the course of our work with the multi-organisational group, we explore the varying degrees of impact that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods achieved during and after the intervention. Analysis of the intervention data suggests that both methods were perceived to facilitate a different way of thinking and learning. In addition, we find that the mapping and multi-criteria evaluation methods successfully addressed participants' democratic and rational concerns. However, despite these reported positive effects, the full recommendations of the intervention were not implemented. An attempt is made to explain this outcome in terms of both the multi-organisational context within which the intervention took place and the nature of the group task. Directions for further research are then proposed.