Determining the minimum duration of treatment in tuberculosis: An order restricted non-inferiority trial design

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the biggest killers among infectious diseases worldwide. Together with the identification of drugs that can provide benefits to patients, the challenge in TB is also the optimisation of the duration of these treatments. While conventional duration of treatment in TB is 6 months, there is evidence that shorter durations might be as effective but could be associated with fewer side effects and may be associated with better adherence. Based on a recent proposal of an adaptive order-restricted superiority design that employs the ordering assumptions within various duration of the same drug, we propose a non-inferiority (typically used in TB trials) adaptive design that effectively uses the order assumption. Together with the general construction of the hypothesis testing and expression for type I and type II errors, we focus on how the novel design was proposed for a TB trial concept. We consider a number of practical aspects such as choice of the design parameters, randomisation ratios, and timings of the interim analyses, and how these were discussed with the clinical team.     

An Imperfect Contraceptive Society: Fertility and Contraception in Italy

Italy represents an unexpected and in some ways paradoxical outcome in terms of fertility control: a drop to one of the lowest birth rates in the world has been accompanied by continuing extensive use of traditional methods despite the availability of modern contraception. Using data from 349 interviews conducted in 2005–06 in four Italian cities, we argue that Italian women commonly achieve “unplanned” and desired conceptions through the use of withdrawal and natural methods. While data from other countries reveal similar notions of ambivalence surrounding pregnancy intentions and contraceptive use, Italy stands out for the surprising correlation between highly “managing” the conditions under which children are born and the socially commended approach of “letting births happen.” Such results suggest the need to rethink theoretical understandings of low fertility. Through the use of non‐technological methods, individuals manipulate culturally produced norms and beliefs about the appropriate time to have a child; simultaneously, their actions are embedded in larger cultural, economic, and political processes.     

Quantity competition, endogenous motives and behavioral heterogeneity

The article shows that strategic quantity competition can be characterized by behavioral heterogeneity, once competing firms are allowed in a pre-market stage to optimally choose the behavioral rule they will follow in their strategic choice of quantities. In particular, partitions of the population of identical firms in which some of them are profit maximizers while others follow an alternative criterion, turn out to be deviation-proof equilibria both in simultaneous and sequential game structures. Our findings that in a strategic framework heterogeneous behavioral rules may be consistent with individual incentives is a first attempt to provide a game-theoretic microfoundation of heterogeneity.     

We-thinking and vacillation between frames: filling a gap in Bacharach’s theory

We-thinking theories allow groups to deliberate as agents. They have been introduced into the economic domain for both theoretical and empirical reasons. Among the few scholars who have proposed formal approaches to illustrate how we-thinking arises, Bacharach offers one of the most developed theories from the game theoretic point of view. He presents a number of intuitions, not always mutually consistent and not fully developed. In this article, I propose a way to complete Bacharach??s theory, generalizing the interdependence hypothesis and building on his intuition about vacillation. It is a simple model of vacillation between the I and we-modes of reasoning, as a way in which we-thinking can come to mind in the face of a decision problem. The vacillation model makes we-reasoning more easily usable in game theory.     

Between transnational engagements and local integration of Chinese communities in Italy: An analysis of the role of migrant organisations

Chinese communities represent one of the largest migrant groups in Italy. Current scholarship overwhelmingly focuses on Chinese ethnic businesses and identity issues. This article addresses an important but under-researched topic: the role of migrant organisations in enhancing migrant transnationalism and/or local integration. We examine three predominant types of Chinese migrant organisations in Italy—civic, educational, religious—across multiple cities. We show that, at first sight, educational and religious organisations aim to serve the communities in maintaining transnational links with the Chinese-speaking world, while civic organisations directly promote interactions with the local society. However, deeper analyses reveal that all three types of organisations can play an active role in fostering both migrant transnationalism and local integration, to different degrees in different domains. We discuss policy implications and how potential synergetic collaborations between host society stakeholders and migrant organisations could be explored.     

How Ineffective Family Environments Can Compound Maldevelopment of Critical Thinking Skills in Childhood Abuse Survivors

The high stress of childhood abuse is associated with neurobiological detriments to executive function. Child abuse survivors may also be cognitively and relationally disadvantaged as a result of being raised in emotionally impoverished families that lack cohesion, organization, flexibility, self-expression, and moral and ethical values and fail to provide opportunities for effective learning. A review of literature demonstrates how dysfunctional family of origin environments common to child abuse survivors, concomitant with the extreme stress of overt acts of abuse, can act as a barrier to the development of higher-order critical thinking skills. The article concludes by discussing ramifications of critical thinking skill deficits in child abuse survivors and highlights the importance of integrating and prioritizing critical thinking skills training in treatment.     

Predictor distribution and forecast accuracy of threshold models

In the present paper the predictor distribution of a SETAR (Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model (Tong and Lim, 1980) has been investigated when the lead time is greater than the threshold delay.After a brief presentation of the model under study, some relevant aspects of the density forecasts are shown highlighting how they can be used to generate more accurate predictions and to estimate an approximation of the probability density function of the SETAR predictors. The performances of competing predictors have been evaluated through a simulation study and an application to financial market data of the daily Nikkey 300 stock market returns.