Testing Supremacy or Inferiority of Multinomial Cell Probabilities with Application to Biting Preferences of Loggerhead Marine Turtles

We propose exact tests for uniform superiority or uniform inferiority of a multinomial cell probability. We extend the approach to testing supremacy or inferiority in multivariate settings. We also show how to perform superiority or inferiority tests in presence of covariates, and discuss the different interpretations of the proposed tests. The tests are illustrated on an original data set on biting behavior of loggerhead marine turtles.     

Promoting a European Dimension of Intercultural Education

In order to obtain an effective implementation into school curricula, intercultural education needs the cooperation of different actors and the sharing of experience between educational institutions, school heads, teachers and intercultural education practitioners. This article presents the outcomes of two seminars organized by the European Federation for Intercultural Learning in 1997 to review intercultural education materials for secondary schools and to promote European cooperation projects. It also discusses a project to adapt an intercultural education handbook presently being carried out in six member states during the 1997–1998 school year. This handbook is intended as a starting point for further international cooperation among European secondary schools in the field of intercultural education.     

Structure of National Perceptions of Social Needs Across EU Countries

Back in 1975, the European Union (EU) Council of Ministers defined the poor as “individuals or families whose resources are so small as to exclude them from the minimum acceptable way of life of the Member State in which they live”. This widely quoted definition leaves room for discussion about what can be considered a “minimum acceptable way of life” in different countries and thus also whether national perceptions of minimum standards vary from one country to the next. The paper explores this latter issue by exploiting the first EU dataset allowing a comparative analysis of the items which citizens in the different Member States consider to be necessary for people to have an “acceptable” standard of living in the country where they live. It assesses the (in)variance of the structure of the perception of social needs between countries on the basis of an extension of the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method, and shows a high level of congruence between the 27 national patterns. An important consequence of this result is that it supports the approach which consists of measuring deprivation on the basis of a same set of (validated) items across all the Member States.     

Generalized Linear Mixed Models Based on Latent Markov Heterogeneity Structures

We describe a generalized linear mixed model in which all random effects may evolve over time. Random effects have a discrete support and follow a first‐order Markov chain. Constraints control the size of the parameter space and possibly yield blocks of time‐constant random effects. We illustrate with an application to the relationship between health education and depression in a panel of adolescents, where the random effects are highly dimensional and separately evolve over time.     

Social and Economic Determinants of Reproductive Behavior Before the Fertility Decline. The Case of Six Italian Communities During the Nineteenth Century

In recent decades, main demographic historical research assessed the importance of bio-demographic components in human reproduction, before the diffusion of birth control and contraceptive techniques. According to this dominant view, before fertility decline, marital fertility was mainly regulated by biological and physiological factors and socio-economic factors played only a limited and indirect role. In order to demonstrate the importance of non-biological components, the present study focuses on six pre-transitional communities situated in different geographic areas of Italy. The work aims to demonstrate how fertility levels could significantly be affected by social and economic factors even in natural fertility populations, before the diffusion of contraceptives. Micro-level data are collected from several historical sources, and discrete-time event history models are applied to female reproductive careers in order to estimate effects of socio-economic status, household structure, and price fluctuations on marital fertility, controlling for several bio-demographic factors. Despite clear differences in geographic localization and environment, marital reproductive behavior appeared to be significantly and constantly affected by socio-economic status, household composition, and price levels in all the investigated communities.     

Criminal Victimization and Crime Risk Perception: A Multilevel Longitudinal Study

In a national sample of the Italian population, surveyed four times between October 2002 and January 2007 (N = 2,008), we performed a multilevel longitudinal study aimed at predicting the increase in crime risk perception as a function of three families of independent variables, respectively lying at the within individual level (direct victimization and indirect victimization), at the between-individuals level (being a woman, being an older person, being a poorly educated person and size of area of residence) and at the ecological level (county’s crime rate, unemployment rate and immigration rate). Direct and indirect victimization, being a woman, being an older person, living in a large town and in a context characterized by high crime and unemployment rates positively influenced the change in crime risk perception, while the other individual and ecological predictors we used in our predictive model did not. Strengths, limitations, implications and future developments of this research are discussed.     

Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK Experience

The impact of migration on population growth has become a ubiquitous argument in UK immigration debates, leading to the introduction of immigration restrictions to reduce net migration and prevent the UK population from reaching 70 million. Taking the UK as a case study, this article assesses the rationale for setting a national net migration target as a pivotal point for migration policies and the feasibility of limiting net migration using immigration controls. A framework for analysing the effects of migration policies on net migration is proposed and applied to UK official migration data. The results show that, due to various policy constraints, competing objectives and unintended feedbacks, it is neither optimal nor entirely feasible to prioritize a reduction of net migration as a target for migration policies. Nevertheless, factoring net migration into the migration policy debate provides useful insights on the long‐term implications of migration policies in the context of broader demographic changes.