Politics and Growth

Theories of growth have made progress in understanding the mechanisms of growth in economic terms. However, there is less understanding of the political processes that enable or obstruct these mechanisms. This article provides a four‐stage framework to clarify and analyse the connections between politics and growth: (i) discussing the basic conditions essential for growth; (ii) suggesting that whether or not these conditions emerge depends on specific forms of public‐private interaction; (iii) linking these relationships to the incentives facing those in political power and investors; and (iv) considering the factors at country level that may help to push incentives in a pro‐growth direction.     

Generalized Self-Consistency: Multinomial logit model and Poisson likelihood

A generalized self-consistency approach to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and model building was developed in Tsodikov [2003. Semiparametric models: a generalized self-consistency approach. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B Statist. Methodology 65(3), 759–774] and applied to a survival analysis problem. We extend the framework to obtain second-order results such as information matrix and properties of the variance. Multinomial model motivates the paper and is used throughout as an example. Computational challenges with the multinomial likelihood motivated Baker [1994. The Multinomial–Poisson transformation. The Statist. 43, 495–504] to develop the Multinomial–Poisson (MP) transformation for a large variety of regression models with multinomial likelihood kernel. Multinomial regression is transformed into a Poisson regression at the cost of augmenting model parameters and restricting the problem to discrete covariates. Imposing normalization restrictions by means of Lagrange multipliers [Lang, J., 1996. On the comparison of multinomial and Poisson log-linear models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B Statist. Methodology 58, 253–266] justifies the approach. Using the self-consistency framework we develop an alternative solution to multinomial model fitting that does not require augmenting parameters while allowing for a Poisson likelihood and arbitrary covariate structures. Normalization restrictions are imposed by averaging over artificial “missing data” (fake mixture). Lack of probabilistic interpretation at the “complete-data” level makes the use of the generalized self-consistency machinery essential.     

Obituary

Luck is by definition a random event. However, many people believe luck to be something it is not – an internal, personal quality. An obstacle for understanding personal luck and its sequelae among gamblers has been the lack of a psychometrically sound measure. The current paper reports the development of the Personal Luck Usage Scale (PLUS). In Studies 1 and 2 (Ns = 347 and 361, respectively), a one-dimensional, eight-item scale emerged and was subsequently confirmed among university-aged gamblers. Importantly, the PLUS was distinguishable from a general belief in luck (Study 2). In Study 3 (N = 60), a behavioural consequence of belief in personal luck was assessed among a community sample of gamblers. Specifically, PLUS scores were positively associated with the average amount of money spent in a gambling session. The implications of a belief in gambling-related personal luck for the progression and maintenance of problem gambling are discussed.     

环境健康与法律:美国经验借鉴

在环境健康与法律方面,美国的经验在于它通过一系列法律成功地减少了公众对空气传播、水传播和其他途径传播的暴露风险.这些法律利用了各种机制和政策,它们都明确指出提高公众健康是目标,把健康目标纳入标准设置和其他要求中.相比之下,中国的环境法则较少提到公众健康.如果更明确针对环境健康提出目标要求,中国的环境法在保护公众健康方面将产生非常积极的效果.     

A wavelet Whittle estimator of generalized long-memory stochastic volatility

We consider a k-GARMA generalization of the long-memory stochastic volatility model, discuss the properties of the model and propose a wavelet-based Whittle estimator for its parameters. Its consistency is shown. Monte Carlo experiments show that the small sample properties are essentially indistinguishable from those of the Whittle estimator, but are favorable with respect to a wavelet-based approximate maximum likelihood estimator. An application is given for the Microsoft Corporation stock, modeling the intraday seasonal patterns of its realized volatility.     

The Structural Adjustment Experiment

Book reviewed in this article: Stabilization and Structural Adjustment: Macro-economic Frameworks for Analysing the Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa. By Finn Tarp Structural Adjustment and Beyond in Sub-Saharan Africa: Research and Policy Issues. Edited by Rolph van der Hoeven and Fred van der Kraaij Hemmed In: Responses to Africa's Economic Decline. Edited by Thomas M. Callaghy and John Ravenhill     

Statistical methods for handling missing data to align with treatment policy strategy

The International Council for Harmonization (ICH) E9(R1) addendum recommends choosing an appropriate estimand based on the study objectives in advance of trial design. One defining attribute of an estimand is the intercurrent event, specifically what is considered an intercurrent event and how it should be handled. The primary objective of a clinical study is usually to assess a product's effectiveness and safety based on the planned treatment regimen instead of the actual treatment received. The estimand using the treatment policy strategy, which collects and analyzes data regardless of the occurrence of intercurrent events, is usually utilized. In this article, we explain how missing data can be handled using the treatment policy strategy from the authors' viewpoint in connection with antihyperglycemic product development programs. The article discusses five statistical methods to impute missing data occurring after intercurrent events. All five methods are applied within the framework of the treatment policy strategy. The article compares the five methods via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations and showcases how three of these five methods have been applied to estimate the treatment effects published in the labels for three antihyperglycemic agents currently on the market.     

Advancing Gendered Analyses of Entrepreneurship: A Critical Exploration of Entrepreneurial Activity among Gay Men and Lesbian Women

This paper advances contemporary gendered analyses of entrepreneurial activity by exploring self‐employment amongst gay men and lesbian women. Within current entrepreneurial debate, heterosexual women have become the visible embodiment of the gendered subject. Our contribution is to queer this assumption when focusing upon the entrepreneurial activity of gays and lesbians. Our core question investigates if ‘there is evidence of differences between homosexuals and heterosexuals in their likelihood of being entrepreneurially active’. To address this question, we contrast competing notions of gender stereotypes and discrimination whilst drawing on findings from a large‐scale population‐based study of 163,000 UK adults. We find few differences between homosexuals and heterosexuals; this persists after examining intersectional patterns and considering if gay and lesbian entrepreneurs choose particular sectors, geographies or forms of self‐employment. As our discussion highlights, the value of this study lies within its critique of contemporary analyses of gender which assume it is an end‐point rather than a foundation for analysing gender as a multiplicity.     

Food Banking and Food Insecurity in High-Income Countries

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Food banks are a particular type of voluntary sector organization that bridges the government sector, private sector, and...