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81.
Kimberly M. Thompson Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens Mark A. Pallansch Olen M. Kew Roland W. Sutter R. Bruce Aylward Margaret Watkins Howard Gary James P. Alexander Linda Venczel Denise Johnson Victor M. Cáceres Nalinee Sangrujee Hamid Jafari Stephen L. Cochi 《Risk analysis》2006,26(6):1571-1580
The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes. 相似文献
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84.
Alexander A. I. Wedderburn 《Work and stress》2013,27(2-3):206-210
Abstract Continuous shiftworkers of both genders who like shiftwork and report fewer digestive problems have higher scores on hardiness than those who dislike shiftwork. Whether this is a causal, consequential or accidental relationship requires a longitudinal investigation. It is also not clear how far ‘hardiness’ is a personality measure, a behavioural style, a coping strategy, or a consequence of the stress of shiftwork. 相似文献
85.
This article presents an approach to the problem of terrorism risk assessment and management by adapting the framework of the risk filtering, ranking, and management method. The assessment is conducted at two levels: (1) the system level, and (2) the asset-specific level. The system-level risk assessment attempts to identify and prioritize critical infrastructures from an inventory of system assets. The definition of critical infrastructures offered by Presidential Decision Directive 63 was used to determine the set of attributes to identify critical assets--categorized according to national, regional, and local impact. An example application is demonstrated using information from the Federal Highway Administration National Bridge Inventory for the State of Virginia. Conversely, the asset-specific risk assessment performs an in-depth analysis of the threats and vulnerabilities of a specific critical infrastructure. An illustration is presented to offer some insights in risk scenario identification and prioritization, multiobjective evaluation of management options, and extreme-event analysis for critical infrastructure protection. 相似文献
86.
Ozone depletion potential (ODP) represents the cumulative ozone depletion induced by a particular halocarbon relative to a reference gas (usually trichlorofluoromethane, CFC-11). We focus on ODP estimation for methyl bromide. Previous attempts at its estimation have assumed that components of the ODP equation are lognormally distributed. By considering a wide range of modeling scenarios, we show that this restriction (which is based on computational convenience rather than experimental evidence) has obscured the true uncertainty in the ODP value. Moreover, when publishing point estimates for the ODP value, previous authors have given either mean or median values. We submit that a more appropriate choice for a point estimate is the mode since the distribution of ODP is skewed and since the mode is by definition, the most likely value. For each modeling scenario considered, modal values are given. In general, we find these ODP point estimates are considerably lower than those published elsewhere. 相似文献
87.
C. Haydee Mas James F. Alexander Cole Barton 《Journal of marital and family therapy》1985,11(4):411-415
Twenty-two two-parent families with a referred adolescent were seen by 11 male and 11 female trainees in family therapy. Mothers, fathers, adolescents, and therapists were rated for verbal expression in affective, behavioral, and cognitive! attributional modes during the first session. Results clearly point to role and content difference in modes of expression. Of particular importance are differences by role which occured as a function of therapist gender. These differences suggest that therapist gender has an impact on family therapists' and family members' verbalizations in first sessions of family therapy. 相似文献
88.
This paper proposes a high dimensional factor multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) model in which factor covariance matrices are driven by Wishart random processes. The framework allows for unrestricted specification of intertemporal sensitivities, which can capture the persistence in volatilities, kurtosis in returns, and correlation breakdowns and contagion effects in volatilities. The factor structure allows addressing high dimensional setups used in portfolio analysis and risk management, as well as modeling conditional means and conditional variances within the model framework. Owing to the complexity of the model, we perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation from the posterior distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the efficiency of the estimation algorithm. We illustrate our model on a data set that includes 88 individual equity returns and the two Fama-French size and value factors. With this application, we demonstrate the ability of the model to address high dimensional applications suitable for asset allocation, risk management, and asset pricing. 相似文献
89.
Clinical gait and stepping performance measures in older adults 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Problems with ambulation and mobility are frequent problems in older adults. Each year, about one in 100 older adults develops new severe mobility disability. Assessment of abnormal gait constitutes a major component of clinical practice and may lead to fall reduction. Clinicians can benefit from simple gait and mobility assessment tools to be used in busy clinical settings. This review focuses on gait and stepping performance measures that can be used by the busy clinician to assess gait, mobility performance, balance, and falls risk in the older adult. 相似文献
90.
Patterns of decision making in multihospital systems 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3