The Impacts of Cash Transfers on Subjective Wellbeing and Poverty: The Case of Colombia

Cash transfer programs have been the main social policy in the fight against poverty and inequality in Latin-American countries. This paper analyzes the impacts of the program Más Familias en Acción on the perception of poverty and subjective wellbeing in Colombia. The analyses are based on data from the Encuesta Nacional de Calidad de Vida between 2008 and 2016. Two empirical strategies were compared to account for the lack of randomness in groups of beneficiary and non-beneficiary families: (i) non-experimental designs (linear and nonlinear models with cross-sectional and pooled data); (ii) quasi-experimental designs (Propensity Score Matching and Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment). The results were robust to the different empirical strategies and emphasized that: (i) transfers increase the perception of food insecurity and subjective poverty; (ii) conditionalities involve positive impacts on different indicators of subjective wellbeing, especially health and education; (iii) general impacts on the perceptions of life are nonsignificant, as a result of divergent impacts on the dimensions of the subjective wellbeing of families.     

New perspective on the benefits of the gene–environment independence in case–control studies

We study the benefit of exploiting the gene–environment independence (GEI) assumption for inferring the joint effect of genotype and environmental exposure on disease risk in a case–control study. By transforming the problem into a constrained maximum likelihood estimation problem we derive the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under the GEI assumption (MLE‐GEI) in a closed form. Our approach uncovers a transparent explanation of the efficiency gained by exploiting the GEI assumption in more general settings, thus bridging an important gap in the existing literature. Moreover, we propose an easy‐to‐implement numerical algorithm for estimating the model parameters in practice. Finally, we conduct simulation studies to compare the proposed method with the traditional prospective logistic regression method and the case‐only estimator. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 473–486; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Being and Landscape: An Ontological Inquiry into a Japanese Rural Community

This essay aims to reflect on the idea of landscape and our relationship with it by taking the Japanese notion of furusato (native place) in its ontological dimension. Grounded in Heidegger’s ‘phenomenology of Being’ and ‘ontology’, a phenomenological understanding of fieldwork experience in a Japanese rural community will be developed in order to rethink both the furusato and the ‘Being-landscape’ relation. As a consequence, we will be concerned not with how people speak about landscape, but with how the landscape speaks through people. What will be brought to light are the landscape’s moral and relational dimensions: namely, (i) the responsibility towards both our communities and future generations and (ii) a more-than-physical understanding of landscape that alerts us to our belonging to a common world comprised of relationships and tasks.     

On the use of extreme value tail modeling for generalized pairwise comparisons with censored outcomes

In randomized clinical trials, methods of pairwise comparisons such as the ‘Net Benefit’ or the ‘win ratio’ have recently gained much attention when interests lies in assessing the effect of a treatment as compared to a standard of care. Among other advantages, these methods are usually praised for delivering a treatment measure that can easily handle multiple outcomes of different nature, while keeping a meaningful interpretation for patients and clinicians. For time-to-event outcomes, a recent suggestion emerged in the literature for estimating these treatment measures by providing a natural handling of censored outcomes. However, this estimation procedure may lead to biased estimates when tails of survival functions cannot be reliably estimated using Kaplan–Meier estimators. The problem then extrapolates to the other outcomes incorporated in the pairwise comparison construction. In this work, we suggest to extend the procedure by the consideration of a hybrid survival function estimator that relies on an extreme value tail model through the Generalized Pareto distribution. We provide an estimator of treatment effect measures that notably improves on bias and remains easily apprehended for practical implementation. This is illustrated in an extensive simulation study as well as in an actual trial of a new cancer immunotherapy.     

The impacts of rapid demographic transition on family structure and income inequality in Brazil, 1981–2011

This study analysed the impact of changing family structure on income distribution. Specifically, it analysed how changes in the proportions of different categories of family in the population contributed to increases in the income of the richest and poorest social strata in Brazil, and the consequent impacts on income inequality. Rural and urban families were compared in order to understand how these dynamics had different impacts on more developed (urban) and less developed (rural) areas. The results emphasize how changes observed in family structure are more pronounced among the richest families, contributing to an increase in (i) the income of the richest families and (ii) income inequality between the richest and poorest families, as well as between urban and rural areas.     

Mental health care for youth: Predictors of use are not always the same as predictors of volume

This study identifies determinants of adolescents’ propensity to use outpatient mental care as well as factors predicting number of visits after contact with a provider was made. We examined three types of treatment outlets: day treatment program (DTP), mental health clinic (MHC), and private specialty services (PSS). Among youth, 1.6% visited DTP, 2.3% visited MHC, and 11.1% had PSS, with overlaps in services utilization. Results from multivariable logistic regressions indicate that most of the individual characteristics differentiated youth on odds of using MHC and PSS, but not DTP. Health status, alcohol dependence, drug dependence, and problematic conduct behaviors and having Medicaid increased the odds of using all three services. Censored regressions used to model number of visits among service users found that girls consistently used more visits than boys. The results suggest that policies that encourage seeking help to a mental care provider may be in instances different from those aimed at motivating retention in treatment.     

A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols

Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, an emerging viral infection with a global case fatality rate of 35.5%, caused major outbreaks first in 2012 and 2015, though new cases are continuously reported around the world. Transmission is believed to mainly occur in healthcare settings through aerosolized particles. This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for the exposed population. Results from a typical scenario show the daily mean risk of infection to be the highest for the nurses and healthcare workers (8.49 × 10^?4 and 7.91 × 10^?4, respectively), and the lowest for family visitors and patients staying in the same room (3.12 × 10^?4 and 1.29 × 10^?4, respectively). Sensitivity analysis indicates that more than 90% of the uncertainty in the risk characterization is due to the viral concentration in saliva. Assessment of risk interventions showed that respiratory masks were found to have a greater effect in reducing the risks for all the groups evaluated (>90% risk reduction), while increasing the air exchange was effective for the other patients in the same room only (up to 58% risk reduction).     

Improving estimation for beta regression models via EM-algorithm and related diagnostic tools

In this paper we propose an alternative procedure for estimating the parameters of the beta regression model. This alternative estimation procedure is based on the EM-algorithm. For this, we took advantage of the stochastic representation of the beta random variable through ratio of independent gamma random variables. We present a complete approach based on the EM-algorithm. More specifically, this approach includes point and interval estimations and diagnostic tools for detecting outlying observations. As it will be illustrated in this paper, the EM-algorithm approach provides a better estimation of the precision parameter when compared to the direct maximum likelihood (ML) approach. We present the results of Monte Carlo simulations to compare EM-algorithm and direct ML. Finally, two empirical examples illustrate the full EM-algorithm approach for the beta regression model. This paper contains a Supplementary Material.     

“非印记”现象——一种避免价值观重塑的现代方式

回顾葡萄牙社会的现状,哲学家JosGil分析了"非印记"的现象。"非印记"描述的是一个看上去不重视任何事情的方式,人们生活在一个好似什么都没有发生的世界里。当然,如果真的发生了社会重大事件,那么也没有人需要承担责任,没有任何会影响到人们的正常生活。一切都可以继续,好像什么都没有发生过。"非印记"反映的是我们想象和感知的生活与生活本身之间的断裂,也许这不仅仅是葡萄牙社会独有的异化现象,而是现代社会共有的一大问题。当这一现象产生时,任何价值重构似乎都是不可能的,因为价值重构需要文化印记。