A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols

Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome, an emerging viral infection with a global case fatality rate of 35.5%, caused major outbreaks first in 2012 and 2015, though new cases are continuously reported around the world. Transmission is believed to mainly occur in healthcare settings through aerosolized particles. This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for the exposed population. Results from a typical scenario show the daily mean risk of infection to be the highest for the nurses and healthcare workers (8.49 × 10^?4 and 7.91 × 10^?4, respectively), and the lowest for family visitors and patients staying in the same room (3.12 × 10^?4 and 1.29 × 10^?4, respectively). Sensitivity analysis indicates that more than 90% of the uncertainty in the risk characterization is due to the viral concentration in saliva. Assessment of risk interventions showed that respiratory masks were found to have a greater effect in reducing the risks for all the groups evaluated (>90% risk reduction), while increasing the air exchange was effective for the other patients in the same room only (up to 58% risk reduction).     

Improving estimation for beta regression models via EM-algorithm and related diagnostic tools

In this paper we propose an alternative procedure for estimating the parameters of the beta regression model. This alternative estimation procedure is based on the EM-algorithm. For this, we took advantage of the stochastic representation of the beta random variable through ratio of independent gamma random variables. We present a complete approach based on the EM-algorithm. More specifically, this approach includes point and interval estimations and diagnostic tools for detecting outlying observations. As it will be illustrated in this paper, the EM-algorithm approach provides a better estimation of the precision parameter when compared to the direct maximum likelihood (ML) approach. We present the results of Monte Carlo simulations to compare EM-algorithm and direct ML. Finally, two empirical examples illustrate the full EM-algorithm approach for the beta regression model. This paper contains a Supplementary Material.     

“非印记”现象——一种避免价值观重塑的现代方式

回顾葡萄牙社会的现状,哲学家JosGil分析了"非印记"的现象。"非印记"描述的是一个看上去不重视任何事情的方式,人们生活在一个好似什么都没有发生的世界里。当然,如果真的发生了社会重大事件,那么也没有人需要承担责任,没有任何会影响到人们的正常生活。一切都可以继续,好像什么都没有发生过。"非印记"反映的是我们想象和感知的生活与生活本身之间的断裂,也许这不仅仅是葡萄牙社会独有的异化现象,而是现代社会共有的一大问题。当这一现象产生时,任何价值重构似乎都是不可能的,因为价值重构需要文化印记。     

Elder Abuse in Portugal: Findings From the First National Prevalence Study

In this study, we present findings of the Portuguese national prevalence study, “Aging and Violence,” the purpose of which was to estimate the prevalence of abuse and neglect of older people in family settings over a 12-month period and examine the relationship between abuse and sociodemographic and health characteristics. Through a telephone survey of a representative probability sample (N = 1,123), we evaluated 12 abusive behaviors and demographic data. Overall, 12.3% of older adults experienced elder abuse in family settings. The prevalence rates of specific types were as follows: psychological, 6.3%; financial, 6.3%; physical, 2.3%; neglect, 0.4%; and sexual, 0.2%. Logistic regression was employed to determine the relationship between abuse and covariates. The study suggests that education level, age, and functional status are significantly associated with abuse. Accurate estimates of the prevalence of elder abuse and understanding of victim and perpetrator characteristics are fundamental to designing effective strategies for prevention and intervention.     

Dimensions of ethical business cultures: comparing data from 13 countries of Europe,Asia, and the Americas

This paper reports the results of a survey-based study of perceptions of ethical business practices in 13 countries of Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Responses from more than 23,000 managers and employees were analyzed using multivariate analysis of variance and post-hoc comparisons, aimed at identifying homogenous sets of countries. Anglo countries (US, UK, Australia, and Canada) clustered together, and were joined by India in most cases. Japan and Italy formed a homogenous subset significantly different from all other countries. Countries of continental Europe, China, Mexico, and Brazil formed various mid-range groupings. The paper discusses some salient differences between groups of countries and presents implications for human resource management (HRD) practice and research.     

Human capital practices of Russian enterprises

Abstract

The goal of this study was to explore current human capital (HC) management practices (including training and development, recruitment and selection, compensation, empowerment, diversity, and work/family balance) of Russian enterprises. The data were collected at 270 large, medium and small enterprises in Moscow and four representative regional centers. The study results suggest that Russian firms tended to emphasize current HC needs, not long-term HC development strategies. The firm size had an effect on differences in training, selection and compensation practices, with large firms being more long-term oriented. Correlation between elements of the HC management model provided some preliminary evidence that Russian firms tried to coordinate selection, compensation and training procedures. In addition, firms that empowered their employees were also putting more emphasis on long-term oriented training, selection and compensation practices. Finally, there were signs that diversity was gradually becoming an important issue for Russian enterprises of all sizes. However, compared to diversity, companies' emphasis on helping their employees to deal with the work/family balance issues was much stronger.     

Application of Correspondence Analysis in the Assessment of Mine Tailings Dam Breakage Risk in the Mediterranean Region

A new statistical approach for preliminary risk evaluation of breakage in tailings dam is presented and illustrated by a case study regarding the Mediterranean region. The objective of the proposed method is to establish an empirical scale of risk, from which guidelines for prioritizing the collection of further specific information can be derived. The method relies on a historical database containing, in essence, two sets of qualitative data: the first set concerns the variables that are observable before the disaster (e.g., type and size of the dam, its location, and state of activity), and the second refers to the consequences of the disaster (e.g., failure type, sludge characteristics, fatalities categorization, and downstream range of damage). Based on a modified form of correspondence analysis, where the second set of attributes are projected as "supplementary variables" onto the axes provided by the eigenvalue decomposition of the matrix referring to the first set, a "qualitative regression" is performed, relating the variables to be predicted (contained in the second set) with the "predictors" (the observable variables). On the grounds of the previously derived relationship, the risk of breakage in a new case can be evaluated, given observable variables. The method was applied in a case study regarding a set of 13 test sites where the ranking of risk obtained was validated by expert knowledge. Once validated, the procedure was included in the final output of the e-EcoRisk UE project (A Regional Enterprise Network Decision-Support System for Environmental Risk and Disaster Management of Large-Scale Industrial Spills), allowing for a dynamic historical database updating and providing a prompt rough risk evaluation for a new case. The aim of this section of the global project is to provide a quantified context where failure cases occurred in the past for supporting analogue reasoning in preventing similar situations.     

PROMETHEE IV through kernel density estimation

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a new version of PROMETHEE IV, which considers the empirical distribution of the criteria through kernel density estimation to evaluate alternatives. The developed method has the ability to treat criteria according to their distribution. The classic PROMETHEE IV can produce divergent integrals, and this could be the cause for its insufficient exploration in literature. The proposed method overcomes this situation since large values have little weight compared to values near the mean.     

Asymptotic properties of MLE for partially observed fractional diffusion system with dependent noises

The paper studies long time asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the signal drift parameter in a partially observed fractional diffusion system with dependent noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to Ibragimov and Khasminskii [1981. Statistics of Random Processes. Springer, New-York], consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of the moments are established for MLE. The proof is based on Laplace transform computations which was introduced in Brouste and Kleptsyna [2008. Asymptotic properties of MLE for partially observed fractional diffusion system, preprint].