Till Discord Do Us Part: The Role of Physical and Verbal Conflict in Union Disruption

The focus of this study was the extent to which physical aggression and, to a lesser extent, verbal conflict predict relationship dissolution in a national sample. Data were from a 5‐ to 7‐year follow‐up of 3,508 married and cohabiting couples in the National Survey of Families and Households. Controlling for demographic factors and verbal conflict, male violence significantly elevated the risk of disruption between waves. Female violence was not a predictor of disruption. Much of the effect of male violence was accounted for by its association with reduced relationship quality. The impact of male violence did not appear to differ according to the female partner's socioeconomic resources or whether couples were in formal or informal unions.     

Queer (in)frequencies: SiriusXM’s OutQ and the limits of queer listening publics

On February 23, 2016, OutQ, the nation’s only LGBT-focused satellite radio station, ceased broadcasting. This essay theorizes a queer listening public as intentionally imagined as such and concomitantly taken up as a queer listening public by queers. It utilizes in-depth interviews with OutQ founder John McMullen, and OutQ show hosts Frank DeCaro, Romaine Patterson, and Michelangelo Signorile, as well as posts from Facebook Fan Pages, to explore the ways OutQ was both imagined and functioned as a queer listening public. Using the interview data, the essay argues that a queer listening public functions in three ways. First, it creates a specifically queer space for queer listeners, almost at the exclusion of heterosexual listeners. Second, it creates a queer affective community where events important to LGBT citizens can be “felt” in a communal, mediated space. Third, a queer listening public seeks to create a national/transnational queer listening public for geographically isolated queers. Additionally, this essay argues that in the cessation of OutQ, SiriusXM practiced what I call queer dispersal, a term deployed to describe the ways marketable aspects of queer life, like entertainment and music, are dispersed and hegemonically incorporated into mainstream media properties.     

How might sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific react to US monetary normalisation under turbulent market conditions?*

This paper examines the potential impact of US monetary normalisation on sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific. We apply the quantile vector autoregressive model with principal component analysis to the assessment of tail risk of sovereign debt, which may not be detectable using traditional OLS-based analysis. Our empirical evidence suggests that US Treasury bond yields can have a significant impact on sovereign bond yields in the region, an important channel through which monetary normalisation by the Fed can affect Asia-Pacific economies. Increases in sovereign bond yields will not only compromise the ability of the sovereigns in the region to service their debt but also translate into higher costs of borrowing for the rest of economy. The results show how much the outsized impact could potentially be if US monetary normalisation somehow turns out to be much more disorderly than expected.     

The Robustness of Common Measures of 2×2 Association to Bias Due to Misclassifications

The strength of association between two dichotomous characteristics A and B can be measured in many ways. All of these statistics are biased when there is misclassification, and all are prevalence dependent whether or not their population values are. Measures lacking fixed endpoints for random and perfect association, such as sensitivity, specificity, risk ratios, and odds ratio, have a bias either so unpredictable or so large that the observable and true measures of association may bear little resemblance to each other. Reexpressions of these measures that fix the endpoints and other measures with fixed endpoints, such as kappa, phi, gamma, risk difference, and attributable risk, produce attenuated estimates of their true values. Disattenuating such estimators is possible using test—retest data.     

Family policy and the under-3s: Money, services, and time in a policy package

The key components of social policy toward the elderly and disabled, and policies for families and their children, have featured what are by now widely employed income and service components. Now, as demographic and social change have motivated increasing numbers of countries to face the need for societal policies for children under the age of 3, exploration reveals the centrality of an additional policy dimension — time. A six-country study and earlier research targeted on this group finds that several major policy patterns are emerging, with individual country choices reflecting history, culture, religious traditions, political configurations, and resources. Referring to illustrative countries, the paper explicates these options: (a) supporting an at-home parent in "family work"; (b) backing a pattern of involvement of parents in both family and work; (c) offering parents of very young children the option of concentrating on family or work; (d) stressing programmes in support of the socialization and education of young children and their parents. It is suggested that social security institutions internationally contribute to these new developments through data collection, dissemination activities, and encouragement of discussion and research.     

Even Risk-Averters may Love Risk

A decision maker bets on the outcomes of a sequence of coin-tossings. At the beginning of the game the decision maker can choose one of two coins to play the game. This initial choice is irreversible. The coins can be biased and the player is uncertain about the nature of one (or possibly both) coin(s). If the player is an expected-utility maximizer, her choice of the coin will depend on different elements: the nature of the game (namely, whether she can observe the outcomes of the previous tosses before making her next decision), her utility function, the prior distribution on the bias of the coin. We will show that even a risk averter might optimally choose a riskier coin when learning is allowed. We will express most of our results in the language of stochastic orderings, allowing comparisons that are valid for large classes of utility functions.