Ageing of a giant: a stochastic population forecast for China, 2006–2060

This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population ageing. The so-called scaled model for error was used to quantify the uncertainty attached to the population predictions. Data scarcity was a major problem in the specification of the expected error of the population forecast. Therefore, the error structures estimated for European countries were used with some modifications, taking into account the large size and heterogeneity of the Chinese population. The stochastic forecast confirms the expectation of extremely rapid population ageing during the first half of the twenty-first century in China. The old age dependency ratio (OADR) will certainly increase. Simply maintaining the current demographic rates (no international migration) would drive the OADR to 0.42 in 2060, four times the current level. Including expected declines in mortality and net outmigration in the projection would increase the median OADR in 2060 to 0.59, with a 80% prediction interval of [0.47, 0.75]. In particular, the oldest-old population will grow much faster than any other age group. This development has major implications for policy-making in China.

Association between gambling harms and game types: Finnish population study

Understanding of the harmfulness of game types is needed when planning harm minimization and prevention strategies. Adult data (N = 3555) from the Finnish Gambling 2015 survey was used to investigate the associations between different game types and gambling-related harms. A negative binomial regression model was used to analyse the effects of demographics, gambling involvement factors, and engaging in different game types on the number of gambling-related harms, which were evaluated by PGSI and SOGS. Age of 18–24, gambling several times a week, high relative expenditure, online gambling and engaging weekly either in scratch games, betting games or slot machine gambling were associated with a higher number of gambling harms. Chasing losses was the most typical harm among online poker players and fast-paced daily lottery game players, while poor self-control was the most typical harm with other game types, although some of the results were not statistically significant. Multiple factors were associated with gambling harms, including young age and gambling intensity. Games that provide a possibility for high-frequency gambling are more linked to harms. Recommendations should be implemented to incorporate effective harm-minimizing strategies in the regulation of specific game types both at the legislative level (provision and supply) and at the public health level.     

Estimation of Exposure Time Distributions

In many demographic analyses, such as the assessment of environmental cancer risks, one may be interested not only in the age-by-state distribution of the population but also in the distribution of the population by time spent in a given state. States can represent geographic areas, marital statuses, labor force participation, or states of epidemiologic exposure. Recursive formulas for the calculation of the distribution of the population according to exposure time are derived under time-invariant state transition rates. Although populations can have identical growth rates and identical age-by-state distributions, they can have very different distributions by exposure time. An application to the analysis of carcinogenic exposure states is given, using data from Finland. The effect of population heterogeneity on the estimated exposure time distributions is studied.     

Improving homeless persons' utilisation of primary care: lessons to be learned from an outreach programme in The Netherlands

Elissen AMJ, Van Raak AJA, Derckx EWCC, Vrijhoef HJM. Improving homeless persons' utilisation of primary care: lessons to be learned from an outreach programme in The Netherlands Faced with rising homelessness, countries around the world are in need of innovative approaches to caring for those without shelter, who, more often than not, suffer from severe health problems. We conducted a case study of an innovative Dutch Primary Care for the Homeless (PCH) programme to gain insight into clients' demographic characteristics, health problems and service use, and to develop an explanation for its success in increasing the latter. Our analyses are based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative data. The results of the study suggest that the success of the PCH programme can be explained by the providers' pragmatism and will to adapt their mode of care provision to the behavioural patterns and needs of their homeless clients.     

On future household structure

Summary.  We develop a method for computing probabilistic household forecasts which quantifies uncertainty in the future number of households of various types in a country. A probabilistic household forecast helps policy makers, planners and other forecast users in the fields of housing, energy, social security etc. in taking appropriate decisions, because some household variables are more uncertain than others. Deterministic forecasts traditionally do not quantify uncertainty. We apply the method to data from Norway. We find that predictions of future numbers of married couples, cohabiting couples and one-person households are more certain than those of lone parents and other private households. Our method builds on an existing method for computing probabilistic population forecasts, combining such a forecast with a random breakdown of the population according to household position (single, cohabiting, living with a spouse, living alone etc.). In this application, uncertainty in the total numbers of households of different types derives primarily from random shares, rather than uncertain future population size. A similar method could be applied to obtain probabilistic forecasts for other divisions of the population, such as household size, health or disability status, region of residence and labour market status.     

Estimating heterogeneity in the probabilities of enumeration for dual-system estimation

"We show how conditional logistic regression can be used to estimate the probability of being enumerated in a census and apply the model to the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) in the United States.... We discuss some special problems caused by the fact that the PES sample area is open to migration between the captures. We also consider the effect of data errors in estimation. We characterize hard-to-enumerate populations and give some tentative estimates of correlation bias."     

Uncertain population forecasting

"Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates. The propagation of these errors through the linear (Leslie) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed. For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high-low intervals." In order to assess the accuracy of the predictions of vital rates, the authors "derive the predictions from a parametric statistical model and estimate the extent of model misspecification and errors in parameter estimates. Subjective, expert opinion, so important in real forecasting, is incorporated with the technique of mixed estimation. A robust regression model is used to assess the effects of model misspecification."     

The New Zealand Refugee Resettlement Strategy: implications for identity,acculturation and civic participation

The process of resettlement as a refugee often involves adapting to, and reconciling with, a new social reality. The complexities associated with acculturation across age, gender and family dynamics are navigated within greater social contexts that may encourage or hinder the processes of adjustment and settlement. This paper addresses the recent New Zealand Refugee Resettlement Strategy in light of contemporary theoretical developments with regard to the segmented assimilation thesis and the forms of social capital that, when available, may be mobilised to help refugee-background individuals, families and communities to forge new routes for participation and belonging. In particular, we examine the strategy and its five main goals of self-sufficiency, participation, health and well-being, education and housing as these relate to the possibilities and tensions at play in the wider acculturation experiences of New Zealand's diverse refugee populations.