The impact of female education on fertility: a natural experiment from Egypt

This paper presents new evidence on the impact of female education on fertility in Egypt using the change in the length of primary schooling as the source of exogenous variation in education. Beginning in 1988, the Egyptian government cut the number of primary school years from six to five, moving from a 12-year system of pre-university education to an 11-year system. This policy change affected all individuals born on or after October 1977. Using triennial pooled cross-section data from 1992 to 2014 and a nonparametric regression discontinuity approach, we compare education and fertility of women born just before and right after October 1977. Our analysis shows that female education significantly reduces the number of children born per woman. The reduction in fertility seems to result from delaying maternal age rather than changing women’s fertility preferences. We also provide evidence that female education in Egypt does not boost women’s labor force participation or affect their usages of contraceptive methods. Female education, however, does appear to increase women’s age at marriage which might explain the delay of maternal age.     

How to Reduce the Impact of Equivalence Scales on Poverty Measurement: Evidence from Turkey

The main aim of the paper is to contribute to the poverty measurement literature by demonstrating a method to reduce the impact of equivalence scales in poverty measurement. This is accomplished by choosing the most appropriate reference household type. The results showed that one adult household is certainly not suitable for being the reference household type. When one adult household is set as the reference, in the range of no equivalence scale and per capita equivalence scale, poverty head count ratio changes from 1 to 48 %, showing the huge effect of the equivalence scale choice. Also the analyses at household size level showed that one adult household type is not convenient to be the reference household type. On the other hand, no clear distinction could be made between central household types, but the importance of choosing a household type close to the center was demonstrated for Turkish data.     

DISTRIBUTION OF THE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR IN A FIRST-ORDER AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

This paper investigates the finite sample distribution of the least squares estimator of the autoregressive parameter in a first-order autoregressive model. A uniform asymptotic expansion for the distribution applicable to both stationary and nonstationary cases is obtained. Accuracy of the approximation to the distribution by a first few terms of this expansion is then investigated. It is found that the leading term of this expansion approximates well the distribution. The approximation is, in almost all cases, accurate to the second decimal place throughout the distribution. In the literature, there exist a number of approximations to this distribution which are specifically designed to apply in some special cases of this model. The present approximation compares favorably with those approximations and in fact, its accuracy is, with almost no exception, as good as or better than these other approximations. Convenience of numerical computations seems also to favor the present approximations over the others. An application of the finding is illustrated with examples.     

Disadvantage and Discrimination Compounded: the experience of Pakistani and Bangladeshi parents of disabled children in the UK

This paper discusses a qualitative and quantitative study of the circumstances of 20 Pakistani and Bangladeshi families with one or more severely disabled children living in Birmingham, England. Parents and other adult carers were interviewed using a combination of structured questionnaires and a semi-structured interview schedule focusing on the families' material circumstances, their use of formal services, informal care arrangements, and aspects of the parents' social and psychological well-being. The study suggests that previous national surveys of disabled families may have under-estimated the extent of material disadvantage, while it confirms that health and social care professionals should not assume that Pakistani and Bangladeshi parents have recourse to high levels of extended family support. The combination of disadvantaged circumstances and difficulties in securing access to appropriate services, which are found for the majority of families with a disabled child, was particularly acute for these ethnic minority families, suggesting the additional dimension of institutional racism.     

英语“动词＋定冠词＋名词”习语的变体研究

习语在英语中指结构相对固定的词组或短句,它的意义不是其构成词意义的相加.一般来说,习语不允许发生词汇和句法层面的变体,但事实上习语变体的可能性比预料的要大得多.英语中有许多结构不同的习语,选择“动词＋定冠词＋名词”结构的习语作为研究对象,从词汇和句法层面分析这类习语变体的程度、引起变体的原因以及定冠词“the”在这类习语中的重要性.     

埃及苏伊士运河大学汉语教学管理中的问题与对策

苏伊士运河大学中文系、孔子学院是埃及汉语教学的重要基地,自成立以来,在埃中双方的共同努力下,发展较为迅速,已经培养了两届70多名本科毕业生,培训了1400多名社会各界人士,为埃及苏伊士运河沿岸地区的贸易、旅游、教育、建筑、轻工及食品等行业输送了急需的汉语人才,在汉语语言推广和中国文化传播方面发挥着越来越重要的作用.     

偶然的事件还是命运的预兆——莎士比亚《罗密欧与朱丽叶》欣赏

莎士比亚早期的戏剧《罗密欧与朱丽叶》是世界文学史、戏剧史上的著名悲剧之一。这部剧虽然不同于他中期创作的那些著名的悲剧,但同样是对于人类社会和人类本性当中的必然性悲剧因素的思考。在《罗密欧与朱丽叶》这部剧中,是一系列偶然性的情节导致了最终必然的毁灭。罗密欧与朱丽叶注定的命运,在整部剧中人物的对话中都有预兆。     

Bayesian Methodology for Model Uncertainty Using Model Performance Data

A simple and useful characterization of many predictive models is in terms of model structure and model parameters. Accordingly, uncertainties in model predictions arise from uncertainties in the values assumed by the model parameters (parameter uncertainty) and the uncertainties and errors associated with the structure of the model (model uncertainty). When assessing uncertainty one is interested in identifying, at some level of confidence, the range of possible and then probable values of the unknown of interest. All sources of uncertainty and variability need to be considered. Although parameter uncertainty assessment has been extensively discussed in the literature, model uncertainty is a relatively new topic of discussion by the scientific community, despite being often the major contributor to the overall uncertainty. This article describes a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of model uncertainties, where models are treated as sources of information on the unknown of interest. The general framework is then specialized for the case where models provide point estimates about a single‐valued unknown, and where information about models are available in form of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous performance data (pairs of experimental observations and model predictions). Several example applications for physical models used in fire risk analysis are also provided.     

Inequality and Growth in Tunisia: New Evidence from Threshold Regression

Social Indicators Research - This paper uses a threshold regression model to test for threshold effect in the relationship between income inequality and growth for Tunisia over the period...