Durbin–Watson and Generalized Durbin–Watson Tests for Autocorrelations and Randomness

The Durbin–Watson (DW) test for lag 1 autocorrelation has been generalized (DWG) to test for autocorrelations at higher lags. This includes the Wallis test for lag 4 autocorrelation. These tests are also applicable to test for the important hypothesis of randomness. It is found that for small sample sizes a normal distribution or a scaled beta distribution by matching the first two moments approximates well the null distribution of the DW and DWG statistics. The approximations seem to be adequate even when the samples are from nonnormal distributions. These approximations require the first two moments of these statistics. The expressions of these moments are derived.     

A Multivariate Quantile Predictor

ABSTRACT

We introduce a nonparametric quantile predictor for multivariate time series via generalizing the well-known univariate conditional quantile into a multivariate setting for dependent data. Applying the multivariate predictor to predicting tail conditional quantiles from foreign exchange daily returns, it is observed that the accuracy of extreme tail quantile predictions can be greatly improved by incorporating interdependence between the returns in a bivariate framework. As a special application of the multivariate quantile predictor, we also introduce a so-called joint-horizon quantile predictor that is used to produce multi-step quantile predictions in one-go from univariate time series realizations. A simulation example is discussed to illustrate the relevance of the joint-horizon approach.     

Bayesian Identification of Multivariate Autoregressive Processes

Identification is one of the most important stages of a time series analysis. This paper develops a direct Bayesian technique to identify the order of multivariate autoregressive processes. By employing the conditional likelihood function and a matrix normal-Wishart prior density, or Jeffrey' vague prior, the proposed identification technique is based on deriving the exact posterior probability mass function of the model order in a convenient form. Then one may easily evaluate the posterior probabilities of the model order and choose the order that maximizes the posterior mass function to be the suitable order of the time series data being analyzed. Assuming the bivariate autoregressive processes, a numerical study, with different prior mass functions, is carried out to assess the efficiency of the proposed technique. The analysis of the numerical results supports the adequacy of the proposed technique in identifying the orders of multivariate autoregressive processes.     

On Semiparametric Mode Regression Estimation

It has been found that, for a variety of probability distributions, there is a surprising linear relation between mode, mean, and median. In this article, the relation between mode, mean, and median regression functions is assumed to follow a simple parametric model. We propose a semiparametric conditional mode (mode regression) estimation for an unknown (unimodal) conditional distribution function in the context of regression model, so that any m-step-ahead mean and median forecasts can then be substituted into the resultant model to deliver m-step-ahead mode prediction. In the semiparametric model, Least Squared Estimator (LSEs) for the model parameters and the simultaneous estimation of the unknown mean and median regression functions by the local linear kernel method are combined to infer about the parametric and nonparametric components of the proposed model. The asymptotic normality of these estimators is derived, and the asymptotic distribution of the parameter estimates is also given and is shown to follow usual parametric rates in spite of the presence of the nonparametric component in the model. These results are applied to obtain a data-based test for the dependence of mode regression over mean and median regression under a regression model.     

A Generalization of the Univariate Slash by a Scale-Mixtured Exponential Power Distribution

A generalization of the slash distribution is derived using the scale mixture of the exponential power distribution. The newly defined family of distributions provides a rich flexibility on the tail heaviness and yields alternative robust estimators of location and scale in non normal situations. In order to investigate asymptotically the bias properties of the estimators, a simulation study is performed. The performance of the estimators on two well-known real data sets is also illustrated.     

General Saddlepoint Approximation for Testing Separate Location-Scale Families of Hypotheses

For testing separate families of hypotheses, the likelihood ratio test does not have the usual asymptotic properties. This paper considers the asymptotic distribution of the ratio of maximized likelihoods (RML) statistic in the special case of testing separate scale or location-scale families of distributions. We derive saddlepoint approximations to the density and tail probabilities of the log of the RML statistic. These approximations are based on the expansion of the log of the RML statistic up to the second order, which is shown not to depend on the location and scale parameters. The resulting approximations are applied in several cases, including normal versus Laplace, normal versus Cauchy, and Weibull versus log-normal. Our results show that the saddlepoint approximations are satisfactory, even for fairly small sample sizes, and are more accurate than normal approximations and Edgeworth approximations, especially for tail probabilities that are the values of main interest in hypothesis testing problems.     

Selection of the Ridge Parameter Using Mathematical Programming

Ridge regression solves multicollinearity problems by introducing a biasing parameter that is called ridge parameter; it shrinks the estimates and their standard errors in order to reach acceptable results. Selection of the ridge parameter was done using several subjective and objective techniques that are concerned with certain criteria. In this study, selection of the ridge parameter depends on other important statistical measures to reach a better value of the ridge parameter. The proposed ridge parameter selection technique depends on a mathematical programming model and the results are evaluated using a simulation study. The performance of the proposed method is good when the error variance is greater than or equal to one; the sample consists of 20 observations, the number of explanatory variables in the model is 2, and there is a very strong correlation between the two explanatory variables.     

Some extensions of circular balanced and circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs

Repeated measurement designs are widely used in medicine, pharmacology, animal sciences, and psychology. In this paper the works of Iqbal and Tahir (2009 Iqbal, I., and M. H. Tahir. 2009. Circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 38:3686–96.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Iqbal, Tahir, and Ghazali (2010 Iqbal, I., M. H. Tahir, and S. S. A. Ghazali. 2010. Circular first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs. Communications in Statistics—Theory and Methods 39:228–40.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) are generalized for the construction of circular-balanced and circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs through the method of cyclic shifts for three periods.     

Bayesian analysis of dynamic panel data by penalized quantile regression

Existing literature on quantile regression for panel data models with individual effects advocates the application of penalization to reduce the dynamic panel bias and increase the efficiency of the estimators. In this paper, we consider penalized quantile regression for dynamic panel data with random effects from a Bayesian perspective, where the penalty involves an adaptive Lasso shrinkage of the random effects. We also address the role of initial conditions in dynamic panel data models, emphasizing joint modeling of start-up and subsequent responses. For posterior inference, an efficient Gibbs sampler is developed to simulate the parameters from the posterior distributions. Through simulation studies and analysis of a real data set, we assess the performance of the proposed Bayesian method.