Impact of temporal aggregation on stock control performance of intermittent demand estimators: Empirical analysis

Intermittent demand is characterized by occasional demand arrivals interspersed by time intervals during which no demand occurs. These demand patterns pose considerable difficulties in terms of forecasting and stock control due to their compound nature, which implies variability both in terms of demand arrivals and demand sizes. An intuitively appealing strategy to deal with such patterns from a forecasting and stock control perspective is to aggregate demand in lower-frequency ‘time buckets’, thereby reducing the presence of zero observations. In this paper, we investigate the impact of forecasting aggregation on the stock control performance of intermittent demand patterns. The benefit of the forecasting aggregation approach is empirically assessed by means of analysis on a large demand dataset from the Royal Air Force (UK). The results show that the aggregation forecasting approach results in higher achieved service levels as compared to the classical forecasting approach. Moreover, when the combined service-cost performance is considered, the results also show that the former approach is more efficient than the latter, especially for high target service levels.     

Characterization of probability distributions through higher order gap

Weibull, Burr, Pareto and power function distributions have been characterized through the conditional moments of order statistics with higher gap and some of its important deductions are discussed.     

Simultaneous estimation of Cronbach’s alpha coefficients

The simultaneous estimation of Cronbachs alpha coefficients from q populations under the compound symmetry assumption is considered. In a multi-sample scenario, it is suspected that all the Cronbachs alpha coefficients are identical. Consequently, the inclusion of non-sample information (NSI) on the homogeneity of Cronbachs alpha coefficients in the estimation process may improve precision. We propose improved estimators based on the linear shrinkage, preliminary test, and the Steins type shrinkage strategies, to incorporate available NSI into the estimation. Their asymptotic properties are derived and discussed using the concepts of bias and risk. Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to investigate the performance of the estimators.     

Decision to Emigrate amongst the Youth in Lebanon

This article studies the determinants of youth emigration decisions, which is considered one of the main causes of ‘Brain Drain’ in Arab Mediterranean Countries (AMCs). We focus on the case of Lebanon using a unique dataset covering young people aged 15 to 29 from the year 2016. The aim of the article is to identify the profile of youth's propensity to emigrate from Lebanon. The empirical results indicate that youth from non‐wealthy backgrounds living in smaller dwellings have a higher propensity to emigrate. It is also found that being male and unemployed has a positive effect on migration. Moreover, university education promotes the willingness to emigrate; while residents of poor regions are more likely to express such willingness. Finally, the article provides some insights for policymakers.     

Organizational wisdom practices and firm product innovation

Review of Managerial Science - The manner in which organizational wisdom-related variables or practices (e.g., reasoning, intuition, virtue, prudence, and aesthetics) are related to firm product...     

埃及苏伊士运河大学汉语教学管理中的问题与对策

苏伊士运河大学中文系、孔子学院是埃及汉语教学的重要基地,自成立以来,在埃中双方的共同努力下,发展较为迅速,已经培养了两届70多名本科毕业生,培训了1400多名社会各界人士,为埃及苏伊士运河沿岸地区的贸易、旅游、教育、建筑、轻工及食品等行业输送了急需的汉语人才,在汉语语言推广和中国文化传播方面发挥着越来越重要的作用.     

A Preliminary Investigation of Risks for Adverse Outcomes of Relationship Seeking on Social Network Sites (SNS): A Descriptive Study of Women Over 50 Seeking Relationships on MySpace in Hillsborough County,Florida

In contrast to younger populations, little attention has been paid to the increase in seniors using Internet-based venues to find relationships and the potential risk for adverse outcomes this poses. This study examined data collected via an online survey from 45 ethnically diverse women aged 50+ “seeking relationships” on MySpace. The majority of women reported a relationship with someone they met online (85%). They also reported experiencing adverse events including financial exploitation (40%), threats (55%), and physical harm (38%) by someone they met online at levels greater than traditional relationship seeking in the general population. Directions for future research are explored.     

偶然的事件还是命运的预兆——莎士比亚《罗密欧与朱丽叶》欣赏

莎士比亚早期的戏剧《罗密欧与朱丽叶》是世界文学史、戏剧史上的著名悲剧之一。这部剧虽然不同于他中期创作的那些著名的悲剧，但同样是对于人类社会和人类本性当中的必然性悲剧因素的思考。在《罗密欧与朱丽叶》这部剧中，是一系列偶然性的情节导致了最终必然的毁灭。罗密欧与朱丽叶注定的命运，在整部剧中人物的对话中都有预兆。