Probabilistic population projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics

In 2015, the United Nations (UN) issued probabilistic population projections for all countries up to 2100, by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy and combining the results using a standard cohort component projection method. For the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics, the mortality projections used the Spectrum/Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) model, a complex, multistate model designed for short-term projections of policy-relevant quantities for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with existing UN projection methods for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a simple time series regression and then converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics. These are then input to the cohort component method, as for other countries. The method performed well in an out-of-sample cross-validation experiment. It gives similar short-run projections to Spectrum/EPP, while being simpler and avoiding multistate modelling.     

Exercise self-regulation among older women participating in a heart disease-management intervention

Using behavioral self-regulation processes may facilitate exercise among older women with heart disease. Data from women in a heart disease-management program (n = 658, mean 73 years), was used to explore associations among exercise self-regulation components (i.e., choosing to improve exercise and observing, judging, and reacting to one's behavior) and exercise capacity. General linear models showed that choosing exercise predicted higher exercise self-regulation scores postprogram and 8 months later. In turn, these scores predicted greater improvements in exercise capacity concurrently and 8 months later. Interaction analyses revealed that the effect of self-regulation on exercise capacity was stronger among women who chose to work on exercise.     

Reexamining the moving to opportunity study and its contribution to changing the distribution of poverty and ethnic concentration

For the past decade and a half a concerted effort has been undertaken to determine whether policy interventions in residential location can solve the problems of inner-city poverty and racial concentration. Studies based on data from the Gautreaux litigation and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)-sponsored Moving to Opportunity (MTO) program have provided an overall optimistic interpretation of the possibilities of improving inner-city lives via mobility vouchers and counseling. A reanalysis of the data from the MTO program, focusing specifically on African American households, suggests greater caution in the interpretation of the findings from either Gautreaux or the MTO program. No statistically significant difference exists between the percentage of poor or the percentage of African Americans in the current neighborhoods between MTO and Section 8 experimental groups. In some cases, there is no statistically significant difference between those who move with a voucher and those who move without any assistance at all. Although there is some evidence that MTO programs have brought specific gains for individual families, claims for the MTO program as a whole need to be treated with a great deal more caution than they have been to date.     

The impact of water supply and sanitation on infant mortality: Individual-level evidence from Tartu,Estonia, 1897–1900

Evidence from a number of historical studies has demonstrated a strong impact of the provision of clean water on mortality risks, while no clear effect has been reported in others. We investigated the relationship between water supply, sanitation, and infant survival in Tartu, a university town in Estonia, 1897–1900. Based on data from parish registers, which were linked to the first census of the Russian Empire, the analysis reveals a clear disadvantage for infants in households using surface water, compared with families that acquired water from groundwater or artesian wells. The impact is stronger in the later stages of infancy. Competing-risk analysis shows that the effect is more pronounced for deaths caused by diseases of the digestive system. Our findings suggest that it may have been possible to improve the water supply, and consequently reduce infant mortality, before the introduction of piped water and sewage systems.     

Anthropological Theories of Low-Wage Work

This review assesses the use of anthropological theories in the examination of low-wage work. Due to the vast differences existing between different cultures in low-wage work, this review focuses on theories that have been applied in Western, and mainly American, contexts. There are primarily three fields from which this literature is drawn: economic anthropology, gender and race anthropology, and theories of power—the last integrates all these theories. Differences and controversies over the applicability of these theories are also highlighted. The review concludes with a conceptual map describing the interrelatedness of these theories and how they explain the realities of low-wage workers.     

Knowledge Brokering: The missing link in the evidence to action chain?

Transferring health care research into policy and practice is a messy and complex process which both policymakers and researchers can struggle with. A potential solution is to use individuals or organisations as knowledge brokers. Using a range of literature, this paper explains the theory behind knowledge brokering, identifies three models of brokering and explores the challenges of brokering. We suggest that clarifying these factors is a significant step towards planning well designed and rigorously evaluated brokering interventions. We also suggest that a clearly defined theoretical framework could help us to find out more about how brokering works and its effectiveness.