Tests for the Validity of the Assumption that the Underlying Distribution of Life is Pareto

This article considers the problem of testing the validity of the assumption that the underlying distribution of life is Pareto. For complete and censored samples, the relationship between the Pareto and the exponential distributions could be of vital importance to test for the validity of this assumption. For grouped uncensored data the classical Pearson χ² test based on the multinomial model can be used. Attention is confined in this article to handle grouped data with withdrawals within intervals. Graphical as well as analytical procedures will be presented. Maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the Pareto distribution based on grouped data will be derived.     

Spatial variation in contraceptive use in Bangladesh: Looking Beyond the borders

This article promotes a more complete understanding of social change by analyzing spatial patterns of contraceptive use in Bangladesh and the contiguous state of West Bengal in India. Multilevel analyses that control for variations in individual- and household-level correlates show an important role for cross-border influences only in those districts that share a common language across the border. The districts that are positive outliers in contraception hug the Bangladesh-West Bengal border. A map of outliers shows that the positive outliers form a contiguous band in a manner suggestive of a role for contagion.     

Bayesian inference for double SARMA models

In this paper, we present a Bayesian analysis of double seasonal autoregressive moving average models. We first consider the problem of estimating unknown lagged errors in the moving average part using non linear least squares method, and then using natural conjugate and Jeffreys’ priors we approximate the marginal posterior distributions to be multivariate t and gamma distributions for the model coefficients and precision, respectively. We evaluate the proposed Bayesian methodology using simulation study, and apply to real-world hourly electricity load data sets.     

Savings/credit group formation and change in contraception

We examine the characteristics of women who chose to join a women's savings or credit group organized by Save the Children USA in a rural area of Bangladesh, and the impact of participation on contraceptive use. The data are taken from a panel survey conducted in 1993, shortly before the groups were formed, and in 1995 after interventions began. Our findings show that although demographic and socioeconomic characteristics have only a weak relationship to the decision to join a program, the treatment that a woman receives from her husband is associated with participation. We also find evidence that the credit program tends to attract women who are already using contraception. The analysis of program impact on the use of modern contraceptives reveals a positive effect of the credit program, after we adjust for this selectivity; we see no evidence of an effect of participation in a savings group.     

Women and Jihad: Combating Violent Extremism and Developing New Approaches to Conflict Resolution in the Greater Middle East

The subject of female participation in combative jihad has proved to be contentious in Islam. Whilst some extremist Islamist groups, such as the so-called Islamic State (IS), have advocated women’s direct engagement in fighting in defense of Islam, others, for example Al Qaeda, have endorsed only a supporting role for women, primarily for the purpose of producing the next generation of jihadis. Whatever the validity of this debate, most radical jihadi groups have deployed women for combative operations, including suicide bombings. This has been more in the Middle East, where a resolution of several conflicts requires a comprehensive political strategy as against a predominantly military approach. This article has three objectives. The first is to provide some clarification about combative jihad in conceptual terms. The second is to focus on IS and its underlying appeal to a range of foreign Muslim male and female enthusiasts and several other like-minded entities who have gone to Iraq and to Syria to serve IS for convictive or deceptive reasons. The third is to see what distinguishes IS from other extremist groups which are operational in various parts of the Muslim domain, and to harness some ideas about how to deal with violent Muslim extremism in the Greater Middle East.