The Universal Decline of Universality? Social Policy Change in Canada,Denmark, Sweden and the UK

The debate about the future of universal social programmes has been raging for years, both in social‐democratic and in liberal welfare states. The objective of this article is to contribute to the literature on universality by analyzing the evolution of universal social programmes in two social‐democratic and two liberal countries: Denmark, Sweden, Canada and the UK. This choice of countries provides the opportunity to investigate whether the principle and practice of universality has fared differently both within and between countries. The analysis focuses primarily on the national level while exploring three policy areas: pensions, healthcare and family policy, specifically child benefits and day care. The main conclusion of our comparative analysis is clear: among our two liberal and two social‐democratic countries, the institutional strength of universality varies greatly from one policy area and one country to another. Considering this, there is no such a thing as a universal decline of universality.     

The polarizing effect of economic inequality on class identification: Evidence from 44 countries

Using cumulative logit mixed models fitted to World Values Survey data from 44 countries, we explore the impact of economic conditions – both at the individual-level and the national-level – on social class identification. Consistent with previous research, we find a positive relationship between household income and class identification in all countries that we explore, though this relationship varies substantially. Also corroborating previous research, we find that ‘low’ class identifications are more likely in poor countries than in rich ones. However, in contrast to previous research that has neglected the role of inequality, our results indicate that the effect of economic development diminishes if income inequality is considered in the same model. We further demonstrate that income inequality has an important polarizing effect on class identification. Specifically, the relationship between household income and class identity tends to be strongest in countries with a high level of income inequality.     

Event dependent sampling of recurrent events

The effect of event-dependent sampling of processes consisting of recurrent events is investigated when analyzing whether the risk of recurrence increases with event count. We study the situation where processes are selected for study if an event occurs in a certain selection interval. Motivation comes from psychiatric epidemiology where repeated hospital admissions are studied for patients with affective disease, as seen in Kessing et al. (Acta Psychiatr Scand 109:339–344, 2004b). For the selected processes, either only disease course from selection and onwards is used in the analysis, or, both retrospective and prospective disease course histories are used. We examine two methods to correct for the selection depending on which data are used in the analysis. In the first case, the conditional distribution of the process given the pre-selection history is determined. In the second case, an inverse-probability-of-selection weighting scheme is suggested. The ability of the methods to correct for the bias due to selection is investigated with simulations. Furthermore, the methods are applied to affective disease data from a register-based study (Kessing et al. Br J Psychiatry 185:372–377, 2004a) and from a long-term clinical study (Kessing et al. Acta Psychiatr Scand 109:339–344, 2004b).     

Educational Assortative Mating and Income Inequality in Denmark

Many writers have expressed a concern that growing educational assortative mating will lead to greater inequality between households in their earnings or income. In this article, we examine the relationship between educational assortative mating and income inequality in Denmark between 1987 and 2006. Denmark is widely known for its low level of income inequality, but the Danish case provides a good test of the relationship between educational assortative mating and inequality because although income inequality increased over the period we consider, educational homogamy declined. Using register data on the exact incomes of the whole population, we find that change in assortative mating increased income inequality but that these changes were driven by changes in the educational distributions of men and women rather than in the propensity for people to choose a partner with a given level of education.     

An Alternative Exact Solution of the Two-Stage Clonal Growth Model of Cancer

The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.     

Modelling excess mortality of the unemployed: choice of scale and extra-Poisson variability

"Occupational mortality and morbidity is usually studied via standardized mortality (or morbidity) ratios, with little attention to the basic fit of the implicit underlying proportional hazards model. This paper presents a case study on unemployment and mortality, based on the complete Danish male population aged 20-64 years at the 1970 census. The effect of unemployment on the age-specific mortality rate is intermediate between additive and multiplicative and was fitted well by an additive effect on the square root of the mortality. The paper discusses and illustrates whether finer stratification or random residual variation ('frailty') is to be preferred for obtaining a statistically satisfactory fit."