Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.     

Hong Kong managers' perceptions of American business values

This report describes empirical research conducted to study the research question, “To what extent do foreign managers' own cultural values influence their perceptions of the corporate values of companies in other cultures?” Using the authors' “Business Values Questionnaire,” business managers from Hong Kong gave their perceptions of publicly stated corporate values of very large U.S. service companies. A similar United States sample was used as a comparison group. Results gave partial support to the authors' hypotheses that an individual's own cultural values influence perceived values of another culture.     

The Flexibility of Scientific Rhetoric: A Case Study of UFO Researchers

The case of ufology demonstrates that cultural packaging—a sort of once-removed indication of scientific authority—can be key in creating knowledge accepted as scientific. This adds a new dimension to the argument that scientific legitimacy is constructed, not just from scientific methodologies and institutional location, but also of language, culture, rhetoric, and symbols. Fringe researchers can make their cases for legitimacy using a variety of strategies—few of which involve actual research. Outside of the scientific community, scientific-sounding explanations and proclamations of expert statuses hold sway. Ambiguities about what constitutes science can be capitalized upon by groups like the UFO research community that assembles shards of legitimacy using science as a cultural template.